New Argentine treasury minister set to take charge of troubled economy

© Reuters. Newly appointed Argentina's Economy Minister Hernan Lacunza attends a news conference at the Casa Rosada Presidential Palace in Buenos Aires © Reuters. Newly appointed Argentina’s Economy Minister Hernan Lacunza attends a news conference at the Casa Rosada Presidential Palace in Buenos Aires

By Hugh Bronstein and Jorge Otaola

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – A new treasury minister, Hernan Lacunza, took charge of Argentina’s troubled economy on Tuesday after the local peso took a dive last week following business-friendly President Mauricio Macri’s harsh beating in the Aug. 11 primary election.

Lacunza, formerly the chief of economy for Buenos Aires province, was sworn in by Macri before the local financial markets opened.

“I ask you to focus on reducing the cost that this electoral process is having on the day to day life of our people, and to reduce the uncertainties that are doing damage,” Macri told Lacunza during the swearing-in ceremony.

Macri, struggling to revive his campaign for a second term in the Oct. 27 general election, is betting that the new treasury chief can help stabilize the recession- and inflation-racked economy.

The cost of insuring against an Argentine sovereign default rose on Monday after opposition candidate Alberto Fernandez said the country would struggle under present conditions to repay a loan to the International Monetary Fund. Fernandez, a center-left Peronist, is the front-runner ahead of the October vote.

The peso tumbled 18% last week to 55 to the U.S. dollar.

In early action on Tuesday, the bond market registered more nervousness about a possible Fernandez presidency. Argentina’s portion of the JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus saw the country’s risk spread shoot to 1,880 basis points from 1,659 on Friday. Monday was a market holiday in Argentina.

Lacunza was expected to give a news conference to outline his policy plans later Tuesday morning. Outgoing treasury minister Nicolas Dujovne quit on Saturday, saying he believed the country needed “significant renewal” of its economic team.

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China unveils reform to help firms borrow more cheaply

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s central bank said on Saturday it will improve the mechanism used to establish the loan prime rate (LPR) in a move to further lower real interest rates for loans in a market-based way.

China’s LPR quotations will be based on rates of open market operations, and the national interbank funding center will be authorized to publish the rate from Aug. 20, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said in a statement on its website. It added the rate will be published every month on the 20th, effective this month.

Banks must set rates on new loans by mainly referring to the LPR and use LPR as the benchmark for setting floating lending rates, the PBOC said, adding that banks will be barred from setting any hidden floor on lending rates in a coordinated way.

The central bank will incorporate LPR application into its macro-prudential assessment (MPA) to urge banks to use LPR pricing.

The move followed pledges from China’s State Council on Friday that the country will rely on market-based reform measures to help lower real interest rates for companies.

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South Africa’s Kganyago Sues After SARB Battle Gets Personal

© Reuters.  South Africa’s Kganyago Sues After SARB Battle Gets Personal © Reuters. South Africa’s Kganyago Sues After SARB Battle Gets Personal

(Bloomberg) — Less than a week since vowed to go to war to protect the independence of the South African Reserve Bank, Governor Lesetja Kganyago has approached the courts to protect his name after a racial slur from a ruling party official.

Kganyago is suing Andile Lungisa, a municipal councilor for the African National Congress, for defamation for a posting on Twitter about the governor’s defense of the central bank’s mandate. Lungisa on Tuesday posted the first page of the summons that was served on him.

This is not the first time Kganyago has gone to the courts for resolve a dispute, but the previous occasion it was on behalf of the central bank.

He successfully fought off a proposal by the nation’s anti-graft ombudsman two years ago to change the institution’s inflation-targeting mandate. The nation’s top court found Public Protector Busisiwe Mkhwebane to be personally liable for 15% of the central bank’s legal costs in that case.

Lungisa’s series of Tweets in June began as support for the ANC’s proposal to nationalize the Reserve Bank, before targeting Kganyago. He described the governor as “a lackey of racist people” and used a highly offensive racial slur, according to the court documents.

Reserve Bank spokeswoman Thoraya Pandy confirmed the legal action when contacted by phone and said the matter was now in the hands of the court.

‘Trojan Horse’

The governor has said the debate about the ownership of the central bank is a distraction from the real problems facing the economy and that it could be used as “Trojan horse” for another attempt to change the mandate. He told reporters at a lunch in Johannesburg last week he would “go to war” if the constitutionally enshrined independence of the central bank is threatened.

The spat also highlights the racial tensions that still exist in South Africa 25 years after the end of white minority rule, and the extent to which race is often used as weapon in public discourse.

Lungisa is currently out on bail pending an appeal of a conviction for assault after he smashed a glass water jug over the head of a Democratic Alliance councilor during a meeting in the Nelson Mandela Bay municipality in 2016, Johannesburg-based Business Day reported on Tuesday. The newspaper first reported on the summons that was served on Lungisa.

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IMF says China may need more stimulus if trade war worsens

© Reuters. Customers are served at a counter at a currency exchange store in Shanghai © Reuters. Customers are served at a counter at a currency exchange store in Shanghai

By David Lawder

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The International Monetary Fund on Friday stood by its assessment that the value of China’s yuan was largely in line with economic fundamentals, but an IMF official said the fund was encouraging China to pursue a more flexible exchange rate with less intervention.

James Daniel, director of the IMF’s China department, said that an assessment of China’s economic policies found the yuan exchange rate in 2018 to be “not significantly over-valued or under-valued.”

The IMF’s views on the yuan are at odds with those of its largest shareholder, the United States, which this week declared China a “currency manipulator” after it allowed the yuan to slip below 7 to the dollar to 11-year lows.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is seeking to engage the IMF to help “correct” an unfair trade advantage from Beijing’s currency actions, but Daniel declined to say how the IMF was responding to the request.

“Our discussions with the U.S. Treasury are ongoing on a range of issues,” Daniel told reporters on a conference call, echoing an earlier statement from an IMF spokesperson.

The IMF said in the report that a worsening of trade tensions with the United States could put China’s economic and financial stability at risk, making new fiscal stimulus measures from the government warranted.

The IMF said if the United States were to impose 25% tariffs on a remaining $ 300 billion list of Chinese imports, this would reduce China’s growth by around 0.8 percentage points over the following 12 months, driven by a sharp fall in demand and a tightening of financial conditions. Negative global spillovers could be significant, it added.

Daniel said that a 10% tariff on this category of goods — as U.S. President Donald Trump intends to impose on Sept. 1 — could result in a 0.3 percentage point cut to growth.

Weighed down by weak demand at home and abroad, China’s growth slowed to 6.2% in the second quarter, a near 30-year low.

More exchange rate flexibility could help China deal with these external pressures, freeing up monetary policy to deal with domestic demand conditions, Daniel said.

He also said the IMF was pressing China for structural reforms to its economy, including opening more sectors to foreign competition and reducing the role of the state in certain industry — goals also broadly sought by the Trump administration.

“We see continued rebalancing and opening up by China and increased exchange rate flexibility as being in China’s own interests and also benefiting the global economy.”

IMF directors in a statement agreed with staff assessments that China’s external position in 2018 was broadly in line with fundamentals.

But they also called for more transparency in China’s exchange rate policies, the IMF said, with some seeking disclosures of China’s foreign exchange market interventions.

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Unstoppable: German Bund yield tumbles to new record lows

By Dhara Ranasinghe

LONDON (Reuters) – Germany’s 10-year bond yield fell to new record lows deep in negative territory on Wednesday as a bigger-than-expected interest rate cut in New Zealand and weak German data gave further impetus to a relentless rally in bond markets.

While some calm has returned to world markets after a ratcheting up in U.S.-China trade tensions in the past week, fixed income markets continue to benefit from the expectation that a bitter trade war raises global recession risks and strengthens the case for monetary policy easing.

New Zealand’s central bank stunned markets by cutting its official cash rate by a bigger-than-expected 50 basis points, and looked set to keep policy lower for longer in the face of growing economic risks.

“While New Zealand rarely registers on the radar for European bond markets, the big rate cut at the moment adds to the feeling that central banks need to get ahead of the curve in acting aggressively and not letting their currencies rise,” said Christoph Rieger, head of rates at Commerzbank (DE:).

In addition, data from euro zone powerhouse economy Germany showed industrial output fell by 1.5% in June from a month earlier, compared with a consensus forecast for a 0.4% fall.

Against this backdrop, bond yields across the euro area headed lower in early trade.

Germany’s benchmark 10-year bond yield fell to a record low of minus 0.56% (), taking its falls so far this year to a hefty 80 basis points. At this stage, it is on track for its biggest annual fall since 2014.

The Dutch 10-year bond yield also hit a new all-time low, at minus 0.44% (), while other 10-year bond yields in the bloc were 2-4 bps lower on the day.

Analysts said the weak German industrial production data raised the risk that German economy most probably shrank in the second quarter.

“All in all, we would characterize today’s industrial production report as devastating, with no silver lining,” said Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Germany.

Germany is scheduled to sell four billion euros of five-year bonds later this session in what analysts say could be a test of investor demand at the new record negative yields.

Last week’s vow by U.S. President Donald Trump to impose a 10% tariff on $ 300 billion of Chinese imports from Sept. 1, sharply escalating a bruising trade war, pushed German 30-year bond yields and the whole curve below 0% for the first time.

(Graphic: Germany’s bond yield curve – https://tmsnrt.rs/2YvAiL0)

(Graphic: Euro zone periphery govt bond yields – http://tmsnrt.rs/2ii2Bqr)

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Russian police detain prominent opposition activist before protest

© Reuters. Rally calling for opposition candidates to be registered for elections to Moscow City Duma in Moscow © Reuters. Rally calling for opposition candidates to be registered for elections to Moscow City Duma in Moscow

By Andrew Osborn and Maria Tsvetkova

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russian police forcibly detained over 800 people attending a protest in Moscow on Saturday to demand free elections, including prominent activist Lyubov Sobol, after authorities warned the demonstration was illegal.

Police removed Sobol from a taxi and bundled her into a van minutes before the start of what anti-Kremlin activists described as a peaceful walk to protest against the exclusion of their candidates from an election next month.

Soon after the start of the protest, a Reuters reporter saw several hundred people milling around at one of the designated protest points in central Moscow. Minutes later, a line of riot police began to squeeze people out of the area.

OVD-Info, an independent monitoring group, said police had detained 828 people, in some cases beating them with truncheons as they lay on the floor. Reuters reporters witnessed dozens of arrests. In one case police carried off a man as he clung upside down to his bicycle.

Police said they had detained 600 and said 1,500 had attended the protest, though footage of demonstrations which flared in different parts of Moscow suggested many more had taken part.

Saturday’s protest was smaller than one a week earlier, but underlined the determination of some Kremlin critics — especially younger people — to keep pressing to open up Russia’s tightly-choreographed political system.

The focus of protesters’ anger is a prohibition on a number of opposition-minded candidates, some of whom are allies of jailed opposition politician Alexei Navalny, from taking part in a September election for Moscow’s city legislature.

That vote, though local, is seen as a dry run for a national parliamentary election in 2021.

Authorities say opposition candidates failed to collect enough genuine signatures to register. The excluded candidates say that is a lie and insist on taking part in a contest they believe they could win.

“They (the authorities) are wiping their feet on us,” said Elena, a student attending Saturday’s protest.

Another attendee, Yevgeny Snetkov, a 61-year-old engineer, described as brazen the way the authorities had prevented opposition candidates from running. “I had no option left but to protest,” he said.

Some protesters chanted “Putin is a thief” as they marched.

INTERNATIONAL CONDEMNATION

Observers said the police presence was one of the biggest at such a protest in nearly a decade. Mobile internet access was cut in some areas and police cordoned off swathes of central Moscow to stop people gathering.

At a similar protest a week earlier, police detained more than 1,300 in one of the biggest security operations of recent years that brought wide international condemnation.

Authorities carried out a new round of detentions and home searches before Saturday’s protest and opened criminal proceedings for what they term mass civil unrest, an offence which carries a penalty of up to 15 years in jail.

Activists say the Russian constitution allows them to freely protest. But authorities say they need to agree the timing and location of any demonstrations in advance, something that was not done ahead of Saturday’s protest.

Opposition activists say the authorities have repeatedly refused to allow protests in central Moscow, leaving them with no choice but to go ahead anyway.

At least eight of Sobol’s allies, including Navalny, are in jail for breaking tough protest laws. The ruling United Russia dominates the national parliament and Navalny plus his allies are starved of media air-time.

Russian investigators said on Saturday they had opened a criminal investigation into the alleged laundering of 1 billion rubles ($ 15.3 million) by an anti-corruption foundation which Navalny set up. Navalny and his allies say the foundation is transparently financed from public donations.

President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin have not commented on the standoff with the opposition, but Moscow prosecutors on Friday warned would-be protesters that Saturday’s demonstration had not been approved and its organizers could be brought to account.

At well over 60 percent, Putin’s approval rating is still high compared with many other world leaders, but is lower than it used to be due to discontent over years of falling incomes.

Last year the 66-year-old former KGB intelligence officer won a landslide re-election and a new six-year term until 2024.

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Record highs in U.S. stock market not enough to attract fund investors

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the floor at the NYSE in New York © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the floor at the NYSE in New York

By David Randall

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Investors retreated from the U.S. stock market last week despite the benchmark reaching new record highs, pulling nearly $ 9.1 billion from mutual funds and exchange-traded funds that hold domestic stocks, according to data released Wednesday by the Investment Company Institute.

The move away from the U.S. market came on the heels of $ 1.1 billon in inflows the week before, continuing a pattern in which the outsized gains in S&P 500 have been unable to attract investors en masse. The benchmark index is up more than 20% for the year to date, thanks in part to expectations of at least one equity-friendly interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year. Over the same time, investors have pulled nearly $ 67 billion out of domestic stock funds.

Instead, investors continued to pile into fixed income by sending $ 10.4 billion into taxable and municipal bond funds, extending a streak of positive inflows over every full week of the year that has brought more than $ 255 billion into the category.

World stock funds, meanwhile, continued a 9-week losing streak by dropping slightly more than $ 1 billion in assets. Investors have pulled approximately $ 20.5 billion from the category since the start of the year.

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China FX regulator to relax exchange rules for commodities futures market

© Reuters.  China FX regulator to relax exchange rules for commodities futures market © Reuters. China FX regulator to relax exchange rules for commodities futures market

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s foreign exchange regulator said on Sunday it will relax currency exchange approval rules for the commodities futures market.

China will also strengthen medium and long-term asset allocation in foreign exchange reserve management, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange in a report released on its website.

It added it will push forward diversification of foreign exchange reserves in a steady, prudent way and ensure safety and liquidity while increasing the value of foreign exchange reserves.

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Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

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South Korea second-quarter GDP bounces as public spending offsets private sector drag

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: People look at a view of central Seoul from an observatory platform in Seoul © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: People look at a view of central Seoul from an observatory platform in Seoul

By Choonsik Yoo and Joori Roh

SEOUL (Reuters) – South Korea’s economy swung back to growth in the second quarter, dodging a technical recession, although the expansion was mostly driven by government spending, suggesting the central bank may need to cut rates again to stoke demand.

Gross domestic product grew by a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in the April-June period from the first quarter, central bank estimates showed, just beating the median forecast of 1.0% growth tipped in a Reuters survey of 12 economists.

However, the Bank of Korea estimates showed the economy would have contracted without increased government spending, following previous quarter’s surprise contraction.

“Details of the GDP data confirmed the economy has been dependant on government spending and support my expectation of another interest rate cut in the fourth quarter,” said Park Sang-hyun, economist at HI Investment & Securities.

Heavily reliant on exports of chips, smartphones, autos and ships, South Korea’s economy has been hit especially hard by the year-long China-U.S. trade dispute, which has hurt supply chains and global growth.

BOK estimates showed government spending contributed 1.3 percentage points to second-quarter GDP while private-sector activity presented a 0.2 percentage point drag as companies slashed investment due to the uncertain outlook.

Last week, the BOK cut interest rates for the first time in three years, earlier than market expectations for a cut in August, and trimmed its 2019 economic growth forecast to a decade low of 2.2% from the previous 2.5%.

South Korea’s economy shrank 0.4% in the first quarter due to delays in government spending as private investment also slowed.

On a year-on-year basis, Asia’s fourth-largest economy expanded 2.1% in the second quarter, compared with 2.0% growth forecast in the poll and 1.7% growth in the first quarter, the central bank estimated.

Merchandise exports returned to growth of 2.3% in the April-June period after a 3.2% contraction in the first, which was the worst reading since the final quarter of 2017.

But export prospects remain uncertain as Japan has curbed chip and display production materials shipments to South Korea, which Seoul says is related to a diplomatic row over compensation of forced labor during World War Two.

The BOK said in a report to parliament on Tuesday that Japan’s export curbs were one of the top three risks to the domestic economy. Governor Lee Ju-yeol added that this year’s growth could dip further due to the curbs.

Analysts have downgraded their forecasts for 2019 growth, with some seeing growth falling short of 2%.

(This story corrects first bullet of Q2 GDP quarterly figure)

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Former Maldives president pleads not guilty to charges of money laundering

By Mohamed Junayd

MALE (Reuters) – Abdulla Yameen, the former president of the Maldives, pled not guilty to charges of money laundering on Sunday, in the first hearing of a criminal court trial into the matter.

Yameen, who drew the Indian Ocean island country closer to China during his tenure, is accused of receiving $ 1 million of government money through a private company, SOF Private Ltd, which has been implicated in a corrupt deal to lease tropical islands for hotel development.

The corruption scandal, originally uncovered by an internal audit, has also implicated several other leading politicians and businessmen, all of whom have denied any wrongdoing.

SOF Private could not immediately be reached for comment.

Yameen, who unexpectedly lost an election last year, was arrested in February. He has repeatedly denied the allegations against him.

During Sunday’s hearing, which was broadcast nationally in a historic move, the court dismissed five pre-trial motions filed by Yameen’s lawyers challenging the validity of the charges against him.

The defense’s arguments did not amount to a valid reason to not proceed to trial, the judge ruled.

The prosecution’s witnesses will begin to testify at the next trial date on August 4. If found guilty, Yameen could face a jail sentence of between five to 15 years.

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