China trade balance (Nov.), exports and imports fall from Oct. and miss median estimates

Trade balance data for November from China

Yuan terms

China trade balance CNY 306.04bn for a beat (note this in yuan, local currency, terms)

  • expected CNY 226.50bn, prior was CNY 233.63bn

Exports +10.2% y/y for a miss

  • expected +13.8%, prior was +20.1%

Imports +7.8% y/y for a miss

  • expected +18.3%, prior was +26.3%

USD terms

China trade balance USD 44.74bn, a beat in USD terms also but do note the fall in both exports and imports in the month in dollar terms

  • expected $ 34.00bn, prior was $ 34.022bn

Exports +5.4% y/y miss

  • expected 9.46%, prior 15.6%

Imports +3.0% y/y miss

  • expected 14.0%, prior was 21.4%

Read the results in yuan or USD terms … both export and imports slumped.Trade wars, eh?

I mentioned on Friday (see link below) this data may well impact on the Australian dollar. Can’t see this as being anything other than a negative input. Perhaps the blow will be cushioned by the fall in the AUD during Friday trade and a close within spitting distance of the week’s low? Or perhaps not!

Its almost as if the market saw this coming 😉

Anyway, there is nothing to be done until markets get underway again on Monday. Enjoy the balance of the your weekend all!

More:

China’s November trade surplus with the US is USD 35.55bn

  • was USD 31.78 bn in October 

For background:

ps. It looks like China’s Nov. inflation data will be published Sunday (9 Dec. 2018) at 0130GMT. I don’t know if I’ll be around for that, day of prayer and all that (now you know I’m full of it 😀 ). But its the trade data the one likely to impact the most.  

  • November CPI expected 2.4%, prior 2.5%
  • November PPI expected 2.7%, prior 3.3%

  

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