‘Moving right along’? Shares nudge up after Trump trade talk

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO:  Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange shortly after the opening bell in New York © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange shortly after the opening bell in New York

By Tom Wilson

LONDON (Reuters) – World shares ticked up on Friday, buoyed by comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that talks aimed at dialing down the damaging trade war with China were “moving right along”.

Trump’s relatively upbeat tone in comments on Thursday was enough to encourage riskier bets by investors, despite a lack of agreement over whether existing tariffs should be dropped as part of an initial deal to ease the long standoff.

European shares, including the broader Euro , gained 0.4% by late morning, with indexes in Frankfurt and Paris up by similar amounts. Banks, technology firms and retail companies led the gains.

Wall Street futures were set to open in positive territory, too, with gains projected between 0.3%-0.4%.

The cautiously buoyant mood mirrored an appetite for riskier bets in Asia, where MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.6%.

The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, added 0.2% to 555.07 points, not far off a record high of 550.63 hit last January but still on track for a weekly fall.

Investors were hoping the two sides can reach a compromise to at least avoid their worst fear: that the United States goes ahead with its final batch of tariffs on about $ 156 billion of Chinese exports, due to take effect on Dec. 15.

Trump’s remarks came after Chinese officials reiterated demands that some U.S. tariffs be rolled back if the sides are to reach a so-called phase one deal.

Markets had expected the sides to seal the initial deal in November. Instead, investors are nervously watching the approaching deadline for the new U.S. levies.

“The difficulty with this is it’s very difficult to time and to trade,” said Jeremy Gatto, a multi-asset investment manager at Unigestion. “We are relatively favorable towards riskier assets in general – but with hedges.”

Gatto said those hedges include currencies such as the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen and Australian dollar, as well as options.

Investors have already taken precautions against a possible slide in stocks by buying put options, with demand for put options to hedge exposure to the S&P500 index climbing in recent days.

In one sign of detente, China said it would waive import tariffs imposed last year on some U.S. soybean and pork shipments. Beijing is rushing to source more meat to fill a gap in protein supplies.

China stocks posted their biggest weekly advance in nearly two months, with the blue-chips up 0.6%.

Investors were looking out for U.S. jobs data, due out at 1330 GMT. The non-farm payrolls report is expected to show 180,000 new jobs were created in November, up from 128,000 a month earlier.

Signs of buoyancy in the labor market would soothe anxiety over the impact of the trade war.

“Markets are in consolidation phase,” said Salman Ahmed, chief investment strategist at Lombard Odier. “It’s wait and watch for first, how does the non-farm payrolls look and, more importantly, the Dec. 15 tariff deadline.”

In other economic data, German industrial output fell unexpectedly in October, pointing to persistent weakness in the backbone of the economy. Berlin said, however, that new orders and business expectations suggest output may stabilize.

While markets have largely priced in the view that the world economy has dodged the bullet of recession, there are still signs of fragility in many major economies.

OIL SKIDS

Oil prices steadied and were set for weekly gains ahead of a meeting of OPEC and its allies later in the day, where the grouping is expected to formally agree to more output cuts in early 2020.

Sources told Reuters that OPEC+ agreed to a 500,000 barrel per day cut, with the group due to next meet in March.

futures were down 0.3%, or 18 cents, at $ 63.21 a barrel, a retreat from earlier gains.

The agreement coincided with the initial public offering of state oil firm Saudi Aramco, which was priced at the top of its range and raised $ 25.6 billion in the world’s biggest IPO.

In currencies, the British pound lost 0.3% but was still set for its best week since October. It has gained 1.5% against the dollar this week.

Sterling had spiked to a seven-month high of $ 1.3166 on Thursday on bets that next week’s election will give the Conservative party the majority it needs to deliver Brexit, ending near-term uncertainty.

The pound last stood at $ 1.328. It hit 2-1/2-year highs versus the euro.

Against a basket of currencies the dollar has dropped every day this week, falling to a one-month low of 97.356 on Thursday. The index was up a smidgeon at 97.460, and has lost nearly 1% this week.

For Reuters Live Markets blog on European and UK stock markets, please click on: [LIVE/]

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Wall Street falls after U.S. tariffs on metal imports, soft PMI data

By Arjun Panchadar

(Reuters) – Wall Street fell on Monday after President Donald Trump said he would restore tariffs on metal imports from Brazil and Argentina, while weak domestic manufacturing data fanned worries of a slowing economy in the wake of the U.S.-China trade war.

The U.S. economy’s manufacturing sector contracted for a fourth straight month in November, as new order volumes slid back to around their lowest level since 2012. Construction spending also unexpectedly fell in October.

The figures were in sharp contrast to recent economic indicators that had reassured investors of a resilient domestic economy. Global markets had also cheered an unexpected rebound in Chinese manufacturing earlier in the day. [MKTS/GLOB]

However, Trump’s tweet about restoring tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum imports from Brazil and Argentina dampened the mood and prompted officials in the two South American countries to seek explanations.

“The concern here is what kind of retaliatory response those countries might have, let alone sort of a re-escalation of these tariff wars in the midst of trying to resolve one,” said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia.

The news sent shares of U.S. steel makers including U.S. Steel Corp (N:) and AK Steel Holding Corp (N:) up 3% and 7%, respectively.

The gains were an exception in a wider selloff, with 10 of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors trading lower. The technology sector () was off 1.3% and was the biggest drag on the benchmark index.

Hopes of an imminent “phase one” trade U.S.-China trade deal and upbeat U.S. economic data sent Wall Street to record highs early last week.

Retail stocks including Target Corp (N:) and Walmart Inc (N:) were in focus, with Cyber Monday sales expected to hit a record following $ 11.6 billion in online sales on Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

At 10:27 a.m. ET the Dow Jones Industrial Average () was down 161.38 points, or 0.58%, at 27,890.03, the S&P 500 () was down 22.50 points, or 0.72%, at 3,118.48 and the Nasdaq Composite () was down 99.57 points, or 1.15%, at 8,565.90.

Among other stocks, Roku Inc (O:) dropped 16.6% as Morgan Stanley (NYSE:) downgraded the video streaming device maker’s shares to “underweight”.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 2.13-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 2.34-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 16 new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 50 new highs and 18 new lows.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

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Yuan stable as China PMI expands after months of gloom

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Investing.com – The Chinese yuan stayed relatively steady as forex markets launched December with good news for China’s economy.

China’s (PMI) was recorded at 51.8 in November, up from a reading of 51.8 the month earlier. On Friday, the official manufacturing PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recorded a reading of 50.2, topping the 50 level that suggests expansion for the first time since April. The official non-manufacturing PMI came in at 54.4, the highest level since March.

The US dollar stayed little changed on Monday in Asia following the release of strong economic data in the US the previous week. The traded marginally higher early in the day, up 0.03% to 98.20 by 8:41 PM ET (01:40 GMT).

US-China trade talks remained in focus after Global Times, a nationalist English-language tabloid in China with links to the Communist Party of China, tweeted that any phase one trade deal would require that the US roll back tariffs. The next batch of American tariffs on Chinese goods are due to take effect on Dec. 15.

Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump approved two bills that back Hong Kong’s anti-government protestors. The bills are more symbolic and have limited practical implications but China has vowed to take strong measures in retaliation, although it has not yet announced any specific action.

In mainland China, The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the reference rate for the yuan, the midpoint around which the currency is allowed to trade, at 7.0262, slightly weaker than the 7.0247 set on Friday.

The pair was down 0.14% to 1.2915. The Pound has taken a number of hits recently as polls continue to suggest that Boris Johnson’s Conservatives are poised to win in elections on December 12, paving the way for a rapid Brexit.

The was up 0.4% to 1.1018.

The pair also gained in morning trading and was up 0.16% to 109.69. Signs continue to point towards more easing from the Bank of Japan.

The pair was up 0.16% to 0.6774 while the pair gained 0.37% to 0.6444.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

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Forex – U.S. Dollar Stays Little Changed After Strong Data; HK Concerns Weigh

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Investing.com – The U.S. dollar stayed little changed on Friday in Asia following the release of strong economic data earlier this week.

The last traded at 98.250 by 12:45 AM ET (04:45 GMT), down 0.04%. Data showed this week that the U.S. economy grew at a 2.1% annualized rate, compared to 1.9% in the first reading. The data was in contrast to other indicators showing a slowdown in global activity.

In a separate report, durable goods gained 0.6% after falling 1.4% in the prior month.

Sino-U.S. trade progress remained in focus after U.S. President Donald Trump approved two bills that back Hong Kong’s anti-government protestors. While China has vowed to retaliate, it has not taken any action so far and it is unclear if that will have any bearing on trade talks.

The next batch of American tariffs on Chinese goods are due to begin on Dec. 15.

The U.S. equities and bond markets were closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving Holiday.

The pair was near flat at 1.2915 as U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party has firmed in opinion polls ahead of the Dec. 12 election.

The pair inched up 0.1% to 1.1011.

The pair slipped 0.1% at 109.45 as falling Chinese and Hong Kong stocks sent the safe-haven yen slightly higher.

The pair and the pair gained 0.1% and 0.4% respectively.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

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Forex- Pound Rises on Brexit Hope; Euro Flat After Ifo Data 

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Investing.com – Sterling was higher on Monday, amid hopes rose that the Conservative Party will win the upcoming election and the U.K. will leave the European Union as planned.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised to bring a Brexit deal to parliament before Christmas. His Conservative Party leads in opinion polls ahead of the Dec. 12 election.

“The markets are holding on to any sort of positivity we get at the moment,” said Sean MacLean, research strategist at Pepperstone, a brokerage in Melbourne. “We want to keep that momentum going.”

rose 0.4% to 1.2883 as of 4:14 AM ET (9:15 GMT) while fell 0.4% to 0.8553.

was flat at 1.1020 after the German showed that German business confidence rose this month, after the euro zone’s largest economy avoided falling into a recession. The Ifo business climate index rose to , up from 94.7 in October, but the Munich based institute warned that Germany’s manufacturing sector was still stuck in recession.

Meanwhile, trade sensitive currencies gained ground on positive trade deal news. China announced over the weekend that it plans to improve protection for intellectual property rights, which was one of the main sticking points in negotiations with the U.S.

U.S. national security adviser Robert O’Brien also said on Saturday a deal was possible by the end of the year.

The trade-sensitive Australian dollar was up slightly, with rising 0.1% to 0.6791, while gained 0.2% to 0.6420. The fell 0.1% to 7.0349.

Elsewhere, the , which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was steady at 98.150.

-Reuters contributed to this report.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

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Forex – Dollar Flat After Powell Plays Down Further Cuts; HK Eyed

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Investing.com — The dollar was mostly flat in early trade in Europe on Friday amid a lull in news ahead of more U.S. economic data later in the day.

The greenback is on course for a modest loss of around 0.2% this week, drifting as the world waits for China and the U.S. tie up an elusive trade truce.

The threat of a Chinese crackdown on unrest in Hong Kong is also keeping markets on edge. President Xi Jinping urged the city’s chief executive Carrie Lam to clamp down on protests on late on Thursday, urging “forceful actions . . . to punish those who have committed violent crimes,” according to the Financial Times.

However, the FT also cited people familiar with the matter as saying that China’s top official overseeing the territories of Hong Kong and Macau had delayed a visit to the city for fear of inflaming the situation further.

By 4 AM ET (0900 GMT), the , which tracks the buck against a basket of developed market currencies, was at 98.050, little changed from late Friday. and were both effectively unchanged at $ 1.1025 and $ 1.2880, respectively.

The dollar had received some support from two days of Congressional testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell who made clear that there would be no further cuts to U.S. interest rates barring a major deterioration in the economy.

The modest uptick in last week along with weakening on Thursday clearly didn’t meet that requirement, but there is the chance that U.S. and data, both due later Friday, may send stronger signals of a slowdown.

Elsewhere, the global trend towards lower interest rates continued, with cuts by the central banks of both Mexico and Egypt. Both the and took the moves in their stride.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

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Forex – Dollar Consolidates After Hitting 3-Week High on Trade Hopes

Investing.com — The dollar was consolidating in early trade in Friday after surging to a three-week high on Thursday in response to growing confidence that the economically damaging tariffs enacted by the U.S. and China on each other’s products will be reversed.

By 3 AM ET (0700 GMT), the was at 97.992, having risen as high as 98.078 overnight thanks to gains against the British pound, euro and Australian dollar. The index tracks the greenback against a basket of developed market currencies.

The Japanese , a haven currency that has suffered particularly badly as hopes for a trade settlement have grown staged a modest comeback overnight after stronger-than-expected numbers for September overnight.

Elsewhere in Asia, the weakened after Moody’s cut India’s sovereign rating outlook to negative from stable, citing rising public deficits and debt levels.

The , meanwhile, was opening flat. It hit a two-week low on Thursday, dipping briefly below $ 1.2800 after the Bank of England adopted a more dovish outlook about the possible need for interest rate cuts, given the weakening of global growth this year and the hit to domestic growth from the prolonged uncertainty over Brexit. That uncertainty is set to extended well into next year by the general election on Dec. 12.

For the first time in over a year, two members of the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee dissented from the overall view, calling for an immediate rate cut.

“All told, the MPC is demonstrating a clear easing bias, and given the downside risks to growth, looks increasingly minded to ease policy early next year,” said ABN Amro Bill Diviney in a morning note.

The has also traded weaker since Thursday morning when the European Commission’s forecast reflected low expectations for the kind of fiscal stimulus that many, including the European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund, say is needed to revive the euro zone economy.

After another weak set of German industrial output data earlier in the week, ’s are due at 3:45 AM ET (0745 GMT). The U.S. data calendar for Friday is led by the University of Michigan’s survey at 10 AM ET.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

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Why is risk tone mixed this am after rollback tariffs agreed?

Risk is in the balance…again

Risk is in the balance...again

Ok, so we have had news from China and the US that rollback tariffs will be in play? So everything should be hunky dory, right?

wrong.

There are reports of fierce internal opposition from the US regarding tariff rollbacks. This is an uneasy agreement, hence the jitters.

The US-China ‘trade war’ is taking on similar proportions to the US-Russia ‘Cold War’. Any talks of ‘Phase 1’ deals are truce’s and not resolution. Who knows which way risk will flip today – just keep your eyes and ears alert. 

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US considering scheduling Trump-Xi meeting after NATO summit in London

Are the details worked out?

I am not suggesting that Phase I of the US/China trade deal is in jeopardy but the focus from the White House is on the when and the place.  I wonder if the horse is getting in front of the cart?.  This was suggested by CNBC’s Kayla Tausche. 

A senior administration official is now on the newswires saying that the US is considering scheduling the Trump/Xi meeting to sign the interim US/China trade deal after the NATO summit in London scheduled for December 3. They add no decision yet has been made.  

This idea was suggested by CNBC’s Kayla Tausche, but is now being released by the White House. 

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Dollar slips after Fed cuts but indicates a pause; BOJ decision eyed

By Tomo Uetake

TOKYO (Reuters) – The dollar dipped against a basket of major currencies on Thursday, reversing earlier gains, after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time this year but signaled its rate-cut cycle might be at a pause, as was broadly expected.

In lowering its policy rate by 25 basis points to a target range of between 1.50% and 1.75%, the U.S. central bank dropped a previous reference in its policy statement that it “will act as appropriate” to sustain the economic expansion – language that was considered a sign for future cuts.

Still, lack of an explicit signal from the Fed that it is done with easing for now was perceived to be less hawkish than expected, helping to drive the dollar down.

“The new, slightly shorter, statement tries to keep their options open and puts them back into a data-dependent mode, but circumstances could mean that they have less optionality than they think,” said Tim Foster, portfolio manager at Fidelity International in London.

The () rose to 98.00 as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke about its decision, the highest since Oct. 17, before slipping. The index was last down 0.3% at 97.37, its lowest level in a week.

The euro last changed hands at $ 1.1167 (), while the greenback last traded at 108.66 yen .

The dollar also temporarily dipped on news that Chile has withdrawn as host of an APEC trade summit in November where the United States and China had been expected to take major steps toward ending a 15-month-old trade war.

Optimism that the U.S. and China will soon agree on a partial deal has boosted risk sentiment this week.

Sterling edged up after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson won parliamentary approval on Wednesday to hold a general election in December, though moves were limited as large currency options expiring this week curbed volatility.

The pound was trading at $ 1.2921, a shade higher on the day.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars firmed as investors scaled back wagers on local interest rate cuts after the Fed indicated it might be pausing in its easing campaign.

The reached a three-month top at $ 0.6918, having been as low as $ 0.6849 at one stage on Wednesday, and the dollar popped up to $ 0.6420, leaving behind Wednesday’s low of $ 0.6335.

Westpac economists changed their call on New Zealand interest rates, now expecting no cut at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) policy meeting on Nov. 13. Investors have also been lengthening the odds on a move from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in the near term.

The Bank of Japan will likely hold off on expanding stimulus later in the day, as calm markets and easing U.S.-China trade tensions take the heat off the central bank from using its limited monetary arsenal to fight the risk of recession.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

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