Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: A blow away employment report puts the markets in a holiday mood

Forex new for NY trading on December 6, 2019

In other markets, 

  • Spot gold is down -$ 16.32 or -1.11% at $ 1459.73
  • WTI crude oil is up $ 0.72 or +1.22% at $ 59.15

The markets were treated to an early holiday present (and Pres. Trump too) when the November employment report came out much stronger than expectations.

  • Nonfarm payroll rose by 266K well above the 183K estimate and well above the ADP report of 67K.
  • The prior month revised up by 41K. 

The combination is a 305K gain all in.  

Ho! Ho! Ho! 

The rest of the report was not bad either with average hourly earnings year on year rising by 3.1% and the unemployment rate falling to 3.5%. (estimate 3.6%).  

The cherry on top later came in the form of a sharp rise in the University of Michigan sentiment index for December. It rose to 99.2 from 96.8 last month and 97.0 estimate.  

Ho! Ho! Ho!.

The data helped to push stocks higher. The final numbers showed:

  • S&P index, +0.91%
  • NASDAQ index, +1.0%
  • Dow industrial average, +1.22%

Given the sharp declines earlier in the week, the gains today were still not strong enough to dig the Dow and Nasdaq out of the red for the  week (they fell by -0.13% and -0.1% respectively) but the S&P did close the week with a small gain of +0.16%. Sometimes a small loss is still a great result.  

Not all was great in the jobs market around North America. As good as the US report was, the Canadian report was the exact opposite. In fact, it was more of a Bah Humbug report (-71K in net job change and the unemployment rate spiked to 5.9% from 5.5%).  

The combination sent the loonine tumbling lower. It was the weakest of the major currencies in trading today (see the ranking below). 

Forex new for NY trading on December 6, 2019

As a result of the contrasting jobs numbers, the USDCAD rose by 0.59% on the day. That  move saw the pr him himice move from a pre-report low of 1.3153 to a high of 1.3269 where the price ran into the 200 hour MA (the MA was at 1.3265 at the time).  The afternoon trading slowed the trend down and the pair is closing at 1.3250 area. In the new week. if the price is to continue higher, gettting back above the 200 hour MA and then the 200 day MA at 1.32778 will be the next key hurdles. 

The EURUSD was another big mover vs the USD today. It fell from a pre-release high near 1.1100, through its 100 day MA at 1.10647 and 200 hour MA at 1.10477. The low stalled at  1.1039 and retraced back above the 200 hour MA at 1.10477 – closing at 1.1055.  In the new week, the 100 day MA above at 1.10647 is topside resistance and the 200 hour MA at 1.10477 is support.  A break outside of either of those extremes will help dictate the next directional move.

A bit of a surprise was the price action in the USDJPY today. At first the USDJPY moved sharply higher on the report with the price spiking from around 108.50 to 108.918. That took the price back above the 200 day MA at 108.826.   Howver, the momentum could not be sustained despite the higher stocks and modestly higher yields ( 2 year up 2.2 bps and 10 year up 2.6 bps today).  When the price started to trade back below the 200 day MA, buyers turned to sellers and the price ending up retracing all the way back to the 108.50 start point.  That puts the shorts more in control in the USDJPY to end the week (with risk at the falling 100 hour MA at 108.767 and the 200 day MA at 108.826).

The USDCHF moved higher  and is closing above its 100 day MA and 100 hour MA at the 0.9886 area.  

So Ho! Ho! Ho! for the US and Bah Humbug! for the Canadians today.

Wishing you all a happy and safe weekend. 

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ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: Canadian GDP matches estimate, oil sinks

Forex news for North American trading on November 29, 2019:

Markets:

  • Gold up $ 8 to $ 1463
  • WTI crude down $ 2.69 to $ 55.42
  • Natural gas down 8.8%
  • US 10-year yields up 1 bps to 1.77%
  • S&P 500 down 13 points to 3141 in shortened session
  • GBP leads on the day, CHF lags
  • NZD leads on the month, AUD lags

US markets were thinned by thinned by the Thanksgiving holiday but it wasn’t necessarily quiet. What made it a particularly intriguing session was that it was holiday-thinned by also the final trading day of the month. That set up a an opportunity for fixing flows to take over and that’s exactly what happened.

Models anticipated USD softness into the fix but in the hours beforehand the dollar was strong enough to send the euro below the November low. However the fixing flows started about 30 minutes before 11 am ET and helped to spark a rally to 1.1020 from a low of 1.0981.

It was a similar story elsewhere as USD weakness boosted cable to 1.2933 from 1.2890. The attack in London had no effect on the currency but an earlier poll showing Labour momentum had hurt it.

The big market mover was a report saying that Russia may not be inclined to pre-announce an OPEC+ production cut and may instead want to wait until April to decide. Going into next week’s meeting an extension of 3-6 months was the bare minimum the market was expecting. Add in thin liquidity and WTI crude fell a whopping 4.6% to a low of $ 55.02 before bouncing to $ 55.42 late.

Despite the fall in oil, CAD finished flat on the day as the oil weakness was ignored, or at least balanced by USD-negative flows. Another factor was the GDP report. While the headlines matched estimates, the details of the report were strong (at least according to this guy).

Have a great weekend, the next two weeks are jam-packed so we’ll see you Monday.

Forex news for North American trading on November 29, 2019:

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Forexlive Americas FX new wrap: Dollar moves up on some better data today

Forex news for NY trading on November 22, 2019

In other markets , the snapshot near the close of the day showing:

  • Spot gold, $ -2.34 or -0.16% at $ 1462
  • WTI crude oil futures $ -0.58 or -0.99% at $ 58.00
  • Bitcoin on Coinbase fell to a session low $ 6775.47, but has rebounded up to $ 7300. That is still down about $ 295 on the day but it could’ve been a lot worse

The USD moved higher today with most of the gains vs the EUR, GBP and the CHF. The currency was only lower vs the NZD on the day. Overall, the NZD was the strongest while the GBP, CHF and EUR were the weakest.  

The fundamental catalyst for the moves were better-than-expected Markit PMI data and better Michigan consumer sentiment. Also helping were technical moves, especially in the GBPUSD, EURUSD and USDCHF.

Forex news for NY trading on November 22, 2019
For the GBPUSD, the pair had an initial catalyst (ahead of the stronger US data) from better PMI data.  That helped to push the pair below the 200 hour moving average at 1.28963. That data the price down toward a support area around the 1.2866 level where it consolidated into the NY session.  NY traders took the pair even lower with the pair initially stalling at the 61.8% retracement at 1.28508. When that was broken, the selling took the price even lower to the next targets at the 1.2821-24 where buyers entered to slow the decline. The last 5 or 6 hours corrected marginally to the 1.2840 level.  For the week, the pair is lower (closed at 1.2900 last Friday), but moved higher to 1.2984 on Monday and other high on Thursday at 1.2969, before moving lower yesterday and today.  

The EURUSD came in the day with a 51 pip trading range for the week. If that remain the range, it would be the most narrow trading range since at least 2002. Coming into the New York session the range was still 51 pips. However the economic data helped to push the price below the low for the week at 1.1046 and the pair did not really slow until reaching the November 15 low at 1.10145.  So instead of the 51 pip trading range, the range for the week is ending at around 83 pips.  Although still narrow by historical standards it certainly sounds better overall.  The technical catalyst for the move was the break below the 200 hour moving average at 1.1046 (that also happened to be the week’s low coming into today).  Fallen below the 61.8% retracement at 1.10298, also helped to push the pair to the downside

The USDCHF, traded mostly higher in the European session up to the 200 day moving average at 0.99463. The correction off that level was modest and the pair kept banging against the topside moving average, until that time it broke through. The high price reached 0.9980 which was just above the previous November high of 0.9978. That was good enough to stalled the rise. The price is currently trading at 0.9968 near the close for the week. And next week’s trading staying above the 200 day moving average will keep the bulls in charge. On the topside getting above the 0.9978 – 80 level will be the closest target.

In other pairs:

  • The USDCAD fell after the retail sales were better than expectations. However, dip buyers came in against the 200 hour moving average (currently at 1.3255) and when the price move back above its 200 day moving average at 1.3274, tthe Friday squeeze to the upside was on. The move did not stop until just below the 1.3300 level, where natural sellers entered.
  • The NZDUSD spent the last 8 hour in the NY session trading between the 100 hour MA above at 0.64114 adn the 200 hour MA below at 0.6399.  The pair is settling in between at 64059. 

For the US stock market today, the major indices are closed higher with the Dow leading the way. European shares were also higher with the UK FTSE 100 leading the way with a gain of 1.22%.

The major indices close higher

For the week, the story was different with the UK FTSE 100 the only major indices closing with a positive gain. The Portugal PSI20 and the Italian FTSE MIB were the weakest of the major stock indices this week.

The UK FTSE was the only positive major indices this week

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Investors Fear Colombia Could Join Latin America’s Year of Rage

© Reuters.  Investors Fear Colombia Could Join Latin America’s Year of Rage © Reuters. Investors Fear Colombia Could Join Latin America’s Year of Rage

(Bloomberg) — Colombia is bracing for its largest protests in years Thursday with labor unions, students and indigenous groups leading a nationwide strike aimed at the deeply unpopular President Ivan Duque.

Investors have been burned by mass unrest in Chile, Ecuador and Bolivia in recent weeks and are pricing in a risk that Colombia may also see more political instability.

Organizers initially called the strike to raise pressure on Duque as his government plans to reform pension and labor laws. But it has morphed into a broad-based rejection of his administration, with groups from air traffic controllers to yoga teachers pledging to join in.

Similar anti-government sentiment has fueled protests across Latin America, with large-scale demonstrations pushing leaders to roll back austerity programs, and helping drive Bolivia’s long-standing president, Evo Morales, out of office.

“I’m following it pretty closely. The government has something to be nervous about,” said Oren Barack, managing director of fixed income at AGP Alliance Global Partners in New York, which holds Colombia sovereign and corporate debt. “There’s a lot of tension in Latin America right now.”

Sealed Borders

Groups taking part are protesting a range of issues including education funding, corruption and unsolved murders of social leaders. The government said it will seal the borders and allow local authorities to take measures such as imposing curfews to control violence.

“We’re tired of policies that don’t serve the people,” said Iliana Bermudez, 34, a member of a Movimiento Social E24, a group helping organize the strike. “This government doesn’t listen.”

In response to the planned strike, the 43-year-old Duque has defended his record and offered “to listen to all communities through a permanent dialogue.” His office has also gone on the offensive, describing many of the strike organizers’ grievances as myths, and releasing videos juxtaposing images of violent protests with those of people happily working, urging Colombians to “construct, not destroy.”

Investor Fears

Sovereign bonds of Ecuador, Chile and Bolivia have all sold off since violent clashes began.

The cost of insuring Colombia’s sovereign bonds against default with credit default swaps — a gauge of perceived risk — has risen the most in the Americas this week.

“Because they were blindsided by what happened in Chile, they’re even more concerned by what could happen in Colombia,” said Sergio Guzman, director of Colombia Risk Analysis, a Bogota-based consultancy.

Discontent has been quietly simmering in the country, but hasn’t boiled over into mass street violence like that seen in neighboring countries. Colombia last saw large-scale demonstrations in 2013 during an agriculture strike in which vast swaths of the country were paralyzed by highway blockades, and buildings in downtown Bogota were vandalized by masked demonstrators.

Approval Rating

Thursday’s marches are expected to be mostly peaceful, but may create negative headlines that will weigh on assets this week, said Dirk Willer, head of emerging-market fixed-income strategy at Citigroup Inc (NYSE:).

The protests may also succeed in pressuring the government into delaying and watering down its pension reform plans, he said.

The marches could further weaken Duque’s already flimsy support. His approval rating fell this month to 26%, its lowest level since he took office last year. A lack of a majority in Congress complicates his plans to push through a tax reform this year and pension and labor bills next year. And a scandal over a bombing raid on a guerrilla camp that killed several minors forced his defense minister to quit this month.

“Duque’s flaws have contributed to a growing level of discontent,” said Claudia Navas, an analyst at Control Risks in Bogota. “It’s uncertain where the president is taking the country.”

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Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Another trifecta in US stock indices

Forex news for NY trading on November 15, 2019.

A snapshot of other markets are showing:

  • Spot gold down -$ 4.32 or -0.30% at $ 1467.05
  • WTI Crude oil futures rose $ 1.05 or 1.87% ast $ 57.82

Retail sales in the US came in mixed with the headline number 0.3% vs 0.2%, the control group up 0.3$ as expected but the ex auto and gas was up 0.1% vs 0.3%. Mixed bag.

The production capacity utilization data however was unequivocally weak. The industrial production fell -0.84% (unrounded) which was the sharpest fall since 2009.  Capacity utilization also fell sharply to 76.7% from 77.5% last month. The data may have been influenced by the GM strike (and all that comes with it).  However, it certainly is worth monitoring going forward.  

Business inventories came in weaker at 0.0% versus 0.1% estimate. The prior month was also revised to a lower -0.1% versus 0.0%.

That combination of data helped to lower the estimates for GDP growth for the 4th quarter from the NY Fed to 0.4% and for the Atlanta Fed to a similar 0.3%. Now it is still early and once again, the GM strike is a contributor to the weakness, but it certainly raises an eyebrow.

So how did the market respond?

Well, for stocks hows about record closing levels, and all time highs at the same time. Moreover,  each of the 3 major stock indices closed pinned against their highs for the day.  You can’t get any better than that.  European shares, sans the Portugal PSI20, also closed higher on the day.  

If the economic data was a catalyst, the evergreen story of progress with the US/China Phase I trade was good enough once again.  Pres. Trump also announced new healthcare price transparency and said that a new middle class tax-cut would be enacted the Democrats lose control the House.  

Forex news for NY trading on November 15, 2019.

In the forex market today, the AUD retraced some of the losses from the fall on Thursday caused by the weaker than expected employment report. It was the strongest of the majors today.  The JPY, which was the strongest of the majors yesterday on flight to safety flows, was the weakest today on flight out of safety flows into risk.   Such is the ups and downs inherent i market that gets it’s catalyst from the ubiquitious US/China trade negotiations.  

As for the USD, the greenback moved lower helped by a rising EURUSD which extended the very narrow weeks trading range.  The prior high was 1.10426. The price moved up from a low of 1.1014 to an intraday high of 1.1057 before coming off a bit into the close.  

The other catalyst  (other that than the decline vs the AUD) was the  GBP which saw a push higher after a report that the Brexit Party would step out of 43 additional seat elections where the Tories came in second in the last election.   

That brings to total of seat elections they won’t field a candidate to 360.  The hope is the Brexit Party voters will vote Tory and push the party over the majority (i.e., no hung parliament).  The clock is ticking to the December 12 election (27 days to be exact).  

The announcent took the GBPUSD from about 1.2885 to a new week high of 1.2918 before settling toward 1.2905 area.  

Below is a snapshot of the rankings of the strongest to weakest for the day.

The AUD was the strongest and the JPY was the weakest.

What did the strongest to weakest rank look for the week?

The NZD nudges out the GBP for the strongest of the major. The NZDs catalyst this week was the surprise “no change” by the RBNZ at their policy meeting. The expectations was up to 75% that the central bank would cut. Imagine if the Fed did that at a meeting?  Wow…

The AUD was the weakest despite the strongest of the majors today.   Below is a snapshot of the rankings for the week.

The NZD is the strongest this week. The AUD is the weakest.

That’ll do it for the week.  Thanking you all for the support. Adam is back on Monday (Yippee!).  Have a safe and joyous weekend.  May your favorite team win!

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Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: The USD ends the week as the strongest

Forex news for NA trading on November 8, 2019.

For the week, the dollar moved higher, yields moved higher, gold moved lower.  

The dollar was the strongest of major currencies with solid gains vs all the major currencies. The biggest gain for the dollar was vs the NZD.  The NZD was the weakest of the majors.  

Forex news for NA trading on November 8, 2019.

The market is pricing in at 64% chance that the RBNZ will cut rates by 25 basis points when they announce their latest decision on November 13. The NZDUSD fell to the lowest level since October 17th and closed near the week’s lows.

Menwhile, the US Federal Reserve members this week, repeated that the US economy is in a good place and so are rates after 3 cuts in 2019.  In the new week, the Chair of the Federal Reserve Jay Powell will testify on Capitol Hill starting on Wednesday (and will be grilled more on Thursday).    

Also, helping the greenback this week was the hope that Phase I of the US/China deal would be signed soon.  Having said that, the Pres. said today that he has not yet decided to rollback tariffs with China.  It is an evergreen story that seems to go around and around and around, but it does help the stock market.

Today the major indices all closed at record high levels:

  • The S&P rose 7.9 points or 0.26% to 3093.08
  • The NASDAQ index rose 40.797 points or 0.48% to 8475.31 
  • The Dow rose 6.44 points or 0.02% to 27681.24.

For the week the Dow outperformed the other major indices with a gain of 1.22%. The NASDAQ at of 1.06% and the S&P advanced by 0.85%.  

Although the US stocks were mostly higehr, the European indices closed mostly lower  with Italy and Portugal bucking that trend.  

Despite the declines in the European stocks today, the broad Euro Stoxx index did trade to the highest level since the 2015 in trading this week. Looking at the percentage change leaders for the major global stock indices for the week, Portugal Italy France and Germany all showed gains of over 2% and led the way for the European markets.

The weekly global stock market changes

Below is a look at the changes of the major stock indices today.

The major European indices mostly fell in trading today Another major theme for the markets this week was the move higher in yields.  The benchmark 10 year yields saw strong advances in the US and Europe from last Friday’s close.

  • US yields moved from 1.71% to 1.94%
  • German yields moved from -0.382% to -0.26%
  • France yields moved from -0.108% to +0.023%
  • Italy yields went from 0.993% to 1.193%

Those are pretty good moves to the upside for the benchmark yields. 

Finally, gold fell sharply on hopes for a deal, the higher dollar and higher rates.  The price of the precious metal fell from $ 1514 last Friday to $ 1459 near the close of trading today.  

On the economic front today, the Canadian employment statistics were touch weaker than expectations but given the sharp rise in that job gains of the last 2 months, we can expect. Nevertheless, the Canadian dollar fell versus all the major currencies with the exception of the New Zealand and Australian dollar.  Below is a snapshot of the strongest and weakest currencies today. The JPY and USD were the strongest while the CAD, AUD and NZD were the weakest. 

The JPY and USD were the strongest, while the Cad, AUD and NZD were the weakest in trading today

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Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US jobs impress. ISM does not, but stocks love it

Forex news for NY trading on November 1, 2019

In other markets, the snapshot at the end of the week is showing: 

  • Spot gold is $ 0.17 or 0.01% at $ 1513.11
  • WTI crude oil futures surged by $ 1.95 or 3.60% at $ 56.13

The US jobs were impressive. The ISM manufacturing index was not, but the stocks loved that people are working but the Fed will not be tightening any time soon, and may ease if the risks to the downside materialize or inflation stays contained.

The details.

  • Nonfarm payroll rose 128K vs 85K estimate.  Moreover,the two-month revision was +95K. This was despite  -41.6K from the GM strike.  The average hourly earnings rose 53.0 percent year on year. The unemployment rate remained low at 3.6% (a tick up from 3.5% record low last month).
  • The ISM data was not that great with the number below the 50 level for the 2nd consecutive month.  As good as the employment number was, the ISM was bad. The employment component was at below 50 at 47.7. The prices paid fell to 45.5.  

Although one was good and one was bad, the stock market loved that potion.  Afterall, people are working, earnings are up, but manufacturing and prices were not so great. That keeps the Fed on hold for a long time and keeps the door open for more easing down the road IF the inflation does not materialize (or goes down).  Remember core PCE yesterday was at 1.7%.  

The net result in the stocks was an up 1% or > for the major indices and record closes for the S&P and Nasdaq. The Dow rose 300 points too, and sits just 13 points from a new all time high for it.   If it weren’t for Boeing – which is muddling around unchanged on the year when the indices are up 20% or so – the Dow would be making all-time highs too (Boeing has a big weight in the Dow calculation).  

Anyway, the estimates for GDP from the NY Fed and the Atlanta Fed corraborated with the sluggish GDP idea with estimates for 0.8% and 1.1% respectively. Admittedlly, it is early, but it is not what the Fed wants – especially with inflation not running.

In the Forex, the NZD is ending the day as the strongest of the majors today. The JPY is the weakest. The USD was lower with the exception of the rise vs the JPY (helped by stocks) and the GBP (some political care in the GBP today). 

Forex news for NY trading on November 1, 2019

For the week in the forex this week, the AUD and the NZD ran neck-and-neck for the strongest of the majors, while the CAD was the weakest. The USD was also mostly lower with the exception of a 0.63% gain vs the loonie.

The major currency changes for the week.

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Forexlive America’s FX news wrap: S&P index trades to all time high but stalls

Forex news for NY trading on October 25, 2019 

In other markets as the trading we comes to close is showing:

  • Spot gold, up $ 0.72 or 0.05% at $ 1504.70. The price of gold was as high as $ 1518.28. However, talk of progress in the US China trade talks, helped to push the price back lower. The low for the day reached $ 1500.15
  • WTI crude oil futures is closing the week at $ 56.61. That is up $ 0.38 or 0.68%. For the week WTI crude oil rose by over 5%.  Inventory data showed a surprise drawdown midweek that helped to push the price above its 100 day moving average where it stayed for the rest of the week.  
  • Bitcoin on Coinbase caught a bid and moved up by over $ 1100 on the Coinbase exchange. Rumblings that China was exploring blockchain and some technical breaks to the upside, helped to push the price higher.  The hi for the day reached $ 8800. That was just short of the $ 8886.40 200 day moving average.   A move above that level over the weekend would be more bullish for the digital currency

In the US stock market, the  S&P index closes just shy of record levels at 3025.68. The price closed at 3022.55 but did trade intraday above that record level.   The NASDAQ composite index was the biggest gainer amongst the major global indices today. The UK FTSE 100 was the only index in the red today as the Brexit October 31 date approaches next week, and there is still uncertainty as to what exactly might transpire. 

Forex news for NY trading on October 25, 2019 

Although lower for the day, the UK FTSE 100 led the charge for the week, rising by 2.43%. The best gainer in the US was the NASDAQ index which rose by 1.9% (see the rank of the major indices below).

US stock market closed higher today

In the forex market today, the CAD road the trend for the week and ended as the strongest on the day. The AUD and the USD also moved higher.    The biggest the choir was the NZD for the day.

The Canadian dollars strongest

On the week, the CAD was also the strongest with gains against all the major currencies. The GBP was the weakest after the UK approved the Boris Johnson Brexit deal but voted down his quick timetable to sign it into law.  That did not sit well with cable buyers and the price rotated lower ahead of next weeks key decisions. 

The GBP was the weakest of the major currencies this week.

Technically speaking today (and for this week too),

  • The EURUSD it is closing near the lows for the week, and in the process is just below a broken trend line on the hourly chart at the 1.1081 level. Today, the price high stalled ahead of its key 100 day moving average at 1.11264. For the week, the price trade above and below that moving average. Closing below however, is more bearish into the new trading week
  • The GBPUSD reach as high a Monday at the 1.30116 level. The low for the week reach 1.2787 on Thursday. In trading today, the highs stalled near the pairs 200 hour moving average. That moving average comes in at 1.2869.  The 100 hour moving averages at 1.2888.  In the new week, stay below those 2 moving averages would give the bears the control.  On the downside, the 1.2746 area looks to be the next logical  support target. Moving below that level will have traders looking toward its 200 day moving average at 1.2711. That will be a key level on more selling in the new trading week.
  • The USDJPY traders did extend the narrow trading range for the week, on a move above the 108.748 level. That’s the good news for the bulls. The bad news for the bulls is that the high could only extend if you pips above that level to 108.769. The pair does remain above its 100 hour moving average at 108.576 and 200 hour moving average at 108.606. So there is still some hope for buyers that the price goes higher early next week. However if those levels are broken, the sellers are likely to take back control.
  • USDCHF. The USDCHF reached up to new week highs in trading today (trade to the highest level since October 16), but when the price extended to the 200 day MA, sellers leaned against the level (at 0.9954 – the high reached 0.99544). The pair is trading back down at 0.9944 as the week comes into the close.  Next week, if the price is going higher, breaking above that 200 day moving average would be the key barometer for traders. Failure to do that, and a rotation back lower would be more likely.

Next week is shaping up to potentially be a very volatile trading week with:

  • The Brexit ups and downs
  • The BOC, FOMC, BOJ rate decisions. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points
  • US employment statistics on Friday
  • ISM data will also be released.  

On the earnings front next week:

  • Apple
  • Alphabet
  • AT&T
  • AMD
  • Merck,
  • Pfizer
  • MasterCard
  • Starbucks
  • Facebook
  • Alibaba
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb’s
  • Celgene
  • Exxon, and 
  • Chevron

are all due to release earnings.   

So there is lot of stuff that can cause market volatility.

Thank you for your support this week and always.   Wishing you all a happy and healthy weekend. 

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ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: Dollar sags as Clarida keeps mum

Forex news for Americas trading on October 18, 2019:

Markets:

  • Gold down $ 1 to $ 1490
  • US 10-year yields flat at 1.75%
  • WTI crude down 19-cents to $ 53.74
  • S&P 500 down 12 points to 2986
  • NZD leads, USD lags

The pound was helped by a steady stream of Labour and dissident Conservative MPs saying they will support the Brexit bill. It still doesn’t seem to be across the finish line but it’s getting closer. At the same time, the vote may be delayed because of an amendment that will force Boris to request the extension before it takes place. That will further limit the risk of a no-deal Brexit. Cable finished at 1.2945, which was close to the best levels of the day as it climbed 50 pips in the final hours of North American trade.

More broadly, we were closely watching for signs of the Fed pushing back on the 81% chance of a cut priced into the market on Oct 30. The thinking is that the Fed would not defy a market that’s priced so aggressively without warning. The blackout starts tomorrow so Clarida’s speech was the last chance to push back. He said the usual meeting-by-meeting rhetoric but didn’t say anything that was surprisingly hawkish so the market took that as a greenlight to sell dollars. The euro led the way as it extended its recent strength in a climb to 1.1167. IT also finished at the best levels of the day/week/month in a positive sign.

The commodity currencies also benefited from dollar softness and all finished at the best levels of the week. USD/CAD fell through the Sept low despite the decline in oil and risk appetite. However the antipodeans outperformed the loonie — likely on modest Canadian election worries (the vote is Monday).

The risk trade wasn’t a part of the dollar slide as stocks fell and USD/JPY declined for the third day to hit 108.24 in a quarter-cent decline.

Have a great weekend and check back Saturday to find out what happens in UK parliament tomorrow.

Forex news for Americas trading on October 18, 2019:

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ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: Trump reveals Phase One of China trade deal

Forex news for North American trade on October 11, 2019:

Markets:

  • Gold down $ 5 to $ 1489
  • WTI crude up $ 1.36 to $ 54.91
  • US 10-year yields up 6 bps to 1.73%
  • S&P 500 up 32 points to 2970
  • GBP leads, JPY lags

The US-China trade deal finally arrived but high hopes for something comprehensive were significantly whittled down over the last few weeks and we ended up with something that essentially boiled down to soybeans for a tariff delay. Most importantly, the Dec 15 tariffs are still scheduled to be implemented.

Risk trades rallied ahead of the official announcement but there was a considerable sell-the-fact trade afterwards as the S&P 500 fell to 2970 from 2992 in the aftermath. The moves were more-subtle in yen crosses and commodity currencies but they finished off the highs.

The pound was the big story as the EU and UK move towards a real detail. Negotiators will now enter “the tunnel” which is a quiet period where details are hammered out. There probably isn’t enough time to complete a deal before Oct 31 but that doesn’t really matter so long as it’s on track to get done with a short extension. The week ahead (and weekend) will be critical. The pound capped its best two-day rally in a decade with a 225 pip rally, but finished 40 pips off the highs on a bit of position squaring.

USD/CAD fell after yet-another strong Canadian jobs report. The headline was coupled with strong full-time numbers and wages . Heavy gov’t hiring was a bit of a caveat but it didn’t matter much to the pair, especially with risk trades higher and oil up 2.5%. The immediate drop was to 1.3215 from 1.3280 and that eventually extended to 1.3170 before a 25 pip bounce late. The close was the lowest in a month. Note that Monday is a holiday in Canada.

The euro rose for the third day and hit a three-week high but the peak came as New York arrived and there was a minor double top at 1.1063 before a fall to 1.1031 late. We finished at the worst levels of North American trade.

Have a great weekend, it was a fun week in markets. Given the lack of a China resolution, there will be more lively weeks to come.

Forex news for North American trade on October 11, 2019:

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