Forexlive Americas FX new wrap: Dollar moves up on some better data today

Forex news for NY trading on November 22, 2019

In other markets , the snapshot near the close of the day showing:

  • Spot gold, $ -2.34 or -0.16% at $ 1462
  • WTI crude oil futures $ -0.58 or -0.99% at $ 58.00
  • Bitcoin on Coinbase fell to a session low $ 6775.47, but has rebounded up to $ 7300. That is still down about $ 295 on the day but it could’ve been a lot worse

The USD moved higher today with most of the gains vs the EUR, GBP and the CHF. The currency was only lower vs the NZD on the day. Overall, the NZD was the strongest while the GBP, CHF and EUR were the weakest.  

The fundamental catalyst for the moves were better-than-expected Markit PMI data and better Michigan consumer sentiment. Also helping were technical moves, especially in the GBPUSD, EURUSD and USDCHF.

Forex news for NY trading on November 22, 2019
For the GBPUSD, the pair had an initial catalyst (ahead of the stronger US data) from better PMI data.  That helped to push the pair below the 200 hour moving average at 1.28963. That data the price down toward a support area around the 1.2866 level where it consolidated into the NY session.  NY traders took the pair even lower with the pair initially stalling at the 61.8% retracement at 1.28508. When that was broken, the selling took the price even lower to the next targets at the 1.2821-24 where buyers entered to slow the decline. The last 5 or 6 hours corrected marginally to the 1.2840 level.  For the week, the pair is lower (closed at 1.2900 last Friday), but moved higher to 1.2984 on Monday and other high on Thursday at 1.2969, before moving lower yesterday and today.  

The EURUSD came in the day with a 51 pip trading range for the week. If that remain the range, it would be the most narrow trading range since at least 2002. Coming into the New York session the range was still 51 pips. However the economic data helped to push the price below the low for the week at 1.1046 and the pair did not really slow until reaching the November 15 low at 1.10145.  So instead of the 51 pip trading range, the range for the week is ending at around 83 pips.  Although still narrow by historical standards it certainly sounds better overall.  The technical catalyst for the move was the break below the 200 hour moving average at 1.1046 (that also happened to be the week’s low coming into today).  Fallen below the 61.8% retracement at 1.10298, also helped to push the pair to the downside

The USDCHF, traded mostly higher in the European session up to the 200 day moving average at 0.99463. The correction off that level was modest and the pair kept banging against the topside moving average, until that time it broke through. The high price reached 0.9980 which was just above the previous November high of 0.9978. That was good enough to stalled the rise. The price is currently trading at 0.9968 near the close for the week. And next week’s trading staying above the 200 day moving average will keep the bulls in charge. On the topside getting above the 0.9978 – 80 level will be the closest target.

In other pairs:

  • The USDCAD fell after the retail sales were better than expectations. However, dip buyers came in against the 200 hour moving average (currently at 1.3255) and when the price move back above its 200 day moving average at 1.3274, tthe Friday squeeze to the upside was on. The move did not stop until just below the 1.3300 level, where natural sellers entered.
  • The NZDUSD spent the last 8 hour in the NY session trading between the 100 hour MA above at 0.64114 adn the 200 hour MA below at 0.6399.  The pair is settling in between at 64059. 

For the US stock market today, the major indices are closed higher with the Dow leading the way. European shares were also higher with the UK FTSE 100 leading the way with a gain of 1.22%.

The major indices close higher

For the week, the story was different with the UK FTSE 100 the only major indices closing with a positive gain. The Portugal PSI20 and the Italian FTSE MIB were the weakest of the major stock indices this week.

The UK FTSE was the only positive major indices this week

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Oil jumps 4% on better sentiment and tighter Iran sanctions

Sanctions in play and WTI up $ 2.21 to $ 56.15

Sanctions in play and WTI up $  2.21 to $  56.15

Reports from Iran suggest leaders will scale back its commitments to the 2015 nuclear deal within hours.

That comes a short time after the US announced a fresh round of sanctions  and promises to do more. The aim is to bring Iran oil exports to zero.

Technically, even with the big jump today we’re still within the range of the two prior trading sessions. Beyond that, the trend towards consolidation has been ongoing for more than a month with oil locked in a $ 53-57 range.

That’s similar of the ‘box’ in the S&P 500 and suggests both could break out at the same time and could confirm one another.


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A better understanding of technical analysis and related indicators

We’re focusing on technical analysis in this article with a description of some of the important indicators


We could say, all wealthy traders use technical analysis but not all technical analysis traders are wealthy although technical analysis (TA) is the most precise way of trading the Forex market.

It’s also useful note that fundamentals play their part in indicating whether a price will move up or down. It gives you the edge over other traders.

Technical Analysis is so powerful because of a few reasons:

1) It represents numbers. All information and its impact on the market and traders is represented in a currency’s price.

2) It helps to predict trends and the foreign exchange market is very ‘trendy’.

3) Certain chart patterns are consistent, reliable and repeat themselves. TA helps us to see them.

Here’s one way of putting technical analyses into perspective (wish I had a dollar each time I said ‘technical analysis’). We all know that prices move in trends.

Research has shown that those that trade ‘with the trend’ greatly improve their chances of making a profitable trade.

Trends help you become aware of the overall market direction and often rescue us from less than profitable entry points. I attended a 2-day course costing me over $ 2500 AUD and the biggest thing I learned from it was the need for discipline and emotional control.

The content was so basic that within the next 3 or 4 articles, I would have covered all of it. So, learning the ‘tools of the trade’ the technical indicators and their applications will help you to diagnose what the market is doing but even then, you need to expect ups and down and trade with emotional control.

Stay with the trend, follow the price

Find the price of the currency pair. If EUR/USD is 1.4224 and moves to 1.4180 then 1.4090 then the market is in a down trend. Concern yourself only with what the market IS doing not what it might do. Listen to the markets and the indicators will back up what they are telling you.

Moving averages

Tell you the price at a given point of time over a defined period of intervals. They are called moving because they give you the latest price while calculating the average based on the selected time measure.

They lag the market so to give you an indication of a change in trend, use a shorter average such as a 5- or 10-day moving average. By combining a shorter term and longer-term MA you can detect a buy signal when the shorter term crosses the longer-term moving average in the upward direction.

Or a sell signal if it crosses in a downward direction. For example, you could use a 5 day versus a 20-day moving average or a 40 day versus a 200 day moving average.

There are simple moving averages, linearly weighted which gives more importance to the recent prices or exponentially weighted. The latter is a favorite because it considers all prices in a time period but emphasizes the importance of the most recent price changes.


Based on moving averages, a MACD plots the difference between a 26 exponential moving average and a 12-day exponential moving average, with a 9 day used as a trigger line. If a MACD turns positive when the market is still plummeting it could be a strong buy signal. The converse also works.

Bollinger bands (sounds like an elastic band)

Prices tend to stay between the upper and lower bands. They widen and become narrower depending on the volatility of the market at the time.

A sell signal would be when the moving average is above the Bollinger bands and vice versa for a buy signal. Some traders use it in conjunction with RSI, MACD, CCI and Rate of Change.

Fibonacci retracement

Describe cycles found throughout nature and when applied to technical analysis can find shifts in the market trends. After a climb prices often retrace a large portion sometimes all of the original move. Support and resistance levels often occur near the Fibonacci retracement level.


Relative Strength Index measures the market activity to see whether it’s overbought or oversold. This is a leading indicator so helps to indicate what the market is going to do (awesome!). A higher RSI number indicates overbought (so expect a bearish shift) and a lower number indicates oversold.

Successful traders will generally use 3 or 4 signals to provide a more conclusive signal before entering a trade.

Always remember, “If in doubt, stay out!”. Technical analysis doesn’t factor in political news, a country’s economic profile or fundamental supply and demand.

Technical Analysis helps us figure out how much money to risk on a trade. How and when to enter the market and how to exit the trade for profit or to minimize loss.

This article was written by LegacyFX.

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Let the record 68 pip range in the EURUSD happen. Why? It can only get better next week.

Non trending transitions to trending..

The EURUSD is mired in a 68 pip range this week.  Putting that into perspective, there has not been a more narrow range week since 2004 (there was one other 68 pip range in 2014).   Moreover, the range over the last 3 days is only 50 pips.   

The market is non-trending.

When the market non-trends, it will eventually transition to trend. If you know that, use it to your advantage. Anticipate a trend.  PS trends are where the most money is made and lost. You just have to get the direction right.

How do you get the direction right?

The clues are in the non-trend.  That is the breakout away from the 68 pip range is what you look for, and if you can trade as close to that as possible, you then use your targets – in the direction of the break – to help you stick with it.  

If it breaks out and returns back into the measly 68 pip range, you have to protect against the run the other way (and go with that idea on the failure). The best case scenario is a break and a run away in the direction of the trend. 

We are due for something better

The idea is that we are due for something much better than 68 measly pips.  If you have that mindset at the get-go, you are in better posiition to “think trend”. You are in a better position to think something much better than 68 pips. That allows you to ride the trend.   

Is the range going to be 120 pips for next week? Is it 150 pips? Is it 200 pips?  

I don’t know.   However, we can use targets, in the direction of the break to guage, how the trend is progressing. To map out the route a trend lower or higher will take us.  Knowing that allows us to manage the trend with more clarity.

Non trending transitions to trending..
For example, if the break is lower (below the 1.1343 level, the steps (targets) would be (see hourly chart above):
  1. 200 hour MA and 38.2% at 1.1323- 1.1327
  2. 50% retracement at 1.12962. 
  3. 61.8% at 1.12689
  4. 100 day MA at 1.1259. 

From the current price of 1.1369 to the 100 day MA is 110 pips….. Better than 68 pips but still not great.

A move below the 100 day MA with the trend continuing could see the price target the low from June 18 at 1.11808.  

That would take the range from the current level to 188 pips. Is 188 pips doable?  

The highest ranges for the year in 2019 have been 207 pips, 197 pips, and 190 pips.  So it might be a stretch to get all the way down there on a trend move lower.

How about 1.1242-46 (swing area – see low yellow area), or to 1.1202? A  move to 1.1202  (lows from June 14 and 17) would be 167 pips from the 1.1369 level here..   That is realistic. 

What about a run higher?

On the topside, a move above the 1.13927 would look toward (see the daily chart below and the green numbered circles):
  1. 1.1411 high from June 25.
  2. 1.1447 high from March 20.
  3. 1.1460.- 50% of the move down from the September 2019 high
  4. 1.15137 – High from January 31

At 1.15137, the range from the current level would be 144 pips.  Is that doable? Yes.  

Above that is the 

       5.  61.8% at 1.1544. That would be a 175 pip move from current levels. 

The EURUSD on the daily chart.

Now, for either extension to be reached (lower or higher), it will take a near perfect week. However, after a record non-trend week, I am still going to think/antipate that something better is around the corner. We will do better much better than 68 measly pips. 

I will be thinking trend. I will be targeting levels to give confidence that the trend roadmap is playing out. I will be prepared.

If you think that going into the week the market is due to transition from non-trend to trend, you have a better chance of catching the trend.

So it stinks that 68 pips was all we could do this week (and 50 pips since Wednesday), but better days (and price action) should be just around the corner.  So look for it. Anticipate it.  Who knows, you may catch a nice trend move in the process.

Have a good weekend.  


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Building a better Lego

From the skies above Billund, Denmark, you can guess which famous toy company calls this town home. And inside this life-size Lego building, it’s Lego heaven. Just about anything imaginable is re-imagined in the tiny plastic bricks that have been inspiring tiny minds for decades.

The Lego headquarters in Billund, Denmark. CBS News

Even seven-year-old Max knows you can only do so much with an iPad. “On the iPad you can’t really build something, like with the hands,” he said.

That hands-on approach has been a hit since the brick was born in the 1950s.


The unique system of interlocking bricks makes for endless possibilities. No wonder it was dubbed the Toy of the 20th Century for its universal appeal.

Lego has come a long way from its humble beginnings in the 1930s, when Danish carpenter Ole Kirk Christiansen started making wooden toys in his Billund workshop. It’s where the earliest Lego toys were made of wood.

They were called Lego, from the Danish phrase leg-godt, which means “play well.”

Does the toy live up to the name? “I think it does. It did at that time and it still does,” said

Torben Skov, who has been designing Lego sets for more than 30 years.

He showed correspondent Roxana Saberi the machine that made Lego’s first toys out of plastic, pouring plastic into molds, and the prototypes for bricks that would change everything.

The company has since produced trillions of its now-famous plastic bricks, and they’ve changed so little that a piece made today still fits with one from 1958.

Plastic bricks being produced at the Lego factory. CBS News

Which begs the question: why now is Lego remaking the very product that’s clicked with kids for generations?

The problem is the plastic, which has been made out of oil. 

To find an alternative, Lego appointed Tim Brooks as vice president for environmental responsibility, and set a 2030 deadline to eliminate petroleum-based plastics, to shrink its carbon footprint.

Soren Kristiansen and his team at Lego’s labs have been testing hundreds of plant-based and recycled materials in search of a suitable substitute.

Kristiansen showed Saberi a material that breaks easily, but also one of the new (secret!) materials they are testing. “This is very sturdy,” he said.

“Is it sturdy enough for your new bricks?” Saberi asked.

“Yeah, but there’s a lot of other things we would have to solve.”

He says the new bricks will have to look and feel just like the current ones – no easy task.

“When you look at these, they are shiny, they fit together, they’re super-safe, they have a sound, they’re all the same color,” Brooks said. “So, these are all properties that are quite hard to replicate in the new material. [For example,] these are from a recycled material and they just don’t fit together. They just fall apart too easily. So, we need to make those a bit tighter.”

“Is it safe to say that the material you need to recreate these bricks in a more environmentally friendly way just does not exist?” Saberi asked.

“It’s a tough one, for sure. There are sustainable materials that exist out there. But the challenge is that quality and that safety,” Brooks replied.  

He says Lego has found one replacement so far for some of its softer pieces. It’s a plastic made from sugar cane. But the new material works in less than two percent of Lego’s products, and critics say even plant-based plastics can weigh heavily on the environment. 

Some Lego pieces can be formed from a softer plastic made form sugar cane. CBS News

Saberi said, “There is some concern that using sugar cane to create plastic is also very resource-intensive; it requires a lot of water, it might involve deforestation.”

“Actually, on sugar cane, we’ve put additional checks in place to make sure that it’s grown in the right way,” said Brooks. “It’s a lower environmental footprint than making bricks from oil, for sure. It doesn’t come without challenges. And I think we shouldn’t always see that bio-based materials are a silver bullet. It’s a step on the journey.”

Lego is taking other steps, too – running wind farms to offset energy used at its sites and factories, and aiming for 100-percent renewable or recyclable packaging.

This way, Lego hopes, kids can “play well” well into the future.

Brooks said, “We say we want to inspire and develop the builders of tomorrow. So, that means making a planet for them in the future. And we can’t say that we made a product, a great toy for them, but somehow that damaged their planet when they get older.”

For more info: 

Story produced by Mikaela Bufano.

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World –

UK PM May expected to delay Brexit vote, demand better deal – Sunday Times

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May tours the Royal Welsh Winter Fair at the Royal Welsh Showground in Builth Wells, Wales © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May tours the Royal Welsh Winter Fair at the Royal Welsh Showground in Builth Wells, Wales

LONDON (Reuters) – Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May is expected to delay Tuesday’s key parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal and head to Brussels next week to demand better terms from the European Union, the Sunday Times newspaper reported.

The newspaper cited "ministers and aides" who said they expected her to announce on Sunday that she was delaying the vote. It is widely expected she will lose and ministers are concerned that the scale of defeat would be such it could bring down her government.

May will head to Brussels next week to make a final appeal to the European Union to improve Britain’s exit deal from the bloc, according to the newspaper, after warnings from ministers that better terms were needed to win lawmaker support.

May’s spokesman said on Friday the vote would go ahead next week despite calls from some lawmakers for a delay.

With her own future in the balance, May has repeatedly insisted that her deal, which envisages continued close ties with the EU, is the only one on the table and that the alternatives are a painful ‘no-deal’ exit from the EU or possibly no Brexit at all.

But the pressure on May mounted over the weekend after Conservative lawmaker Will Quince quit his government role on Saturday in opposition to her deal, and the Sunday Times said further resignations were expected.

One minister told the Sunday Times that he would quit if the vote went ahead, and the newspaper added that at least two Brexit-backing ministers and two members of the whips office were also on the verge of resigning.

The Sunday Times also said that some ministers were planning for a second referendum on EU membership, naming cabinet office minister David Lidington, and justice secretary, David Gauke, as those considering that as a possible outcome.

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