NZD traders – heads up for more NZ inflation data due for release later

We have just had the CPI data from New Zealand for Q4 2019

Later in this session we’ll get a further data point for inflation, the much-watched measure from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand:

  • the Reserve Bank of New Zealand publish their own measure of inflation
  • can be a mover of the NZD.
    The RBNZ’s key measure of core inflation is ‘the sectoral factor model’, and its due at 3pm NZ time, which is 0300GMT.

The prior for this is 1.7% y/y (its been 1.7% for the past 4 quarters). 

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The Sectoral Factor Model Inflation Gauge, in brief (summarised this from RBNZ info)

  • Core inflation excludes one-off or highly volatile price movements
  • Central banks use core inflation measures to assess what is happening to “underlying” inflation
  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has a set of models that produce core inflation estimates
  • The sectoral factor model estimates a measure of core inflation based on co-movements – the extent to which individual price series move together. It takes a sectoral approach , estimating core inflation based on two sets of prices: prices of tradable items, which are those either imported or exposed to international competition, and prices of non-tradable items, which are those produced domestically and not facing competition from imports

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Forex – Yen Gains On Weak Export Data, Virus Fears; Yuan Drops

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By Alex Ho

Investing.com – The Japanese yen gained on Thursday in Asia gained on Thursday in Asia amid weak export figures and fears about the mysterious virus in China.

The EUR/USD pair inched down 0.1% to 1.1082 as traders awaited the European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting due later in the day. The meeting will be followed bya press conference with President Christine Lagarde.

The USD/JPY pair lost 0.3% to 109.53 amid ongoing fears about the widening coronavirus outbreak, as authorities ramped up efforts to contain the virus ahead of the weeklong Lunar New Year holiday next week.

The World Health Organisation will decide later on Thursday whether to declare the situation a global health emergency.

On the data front, Japanese exports for December fell 6.3% in December as compared to a year before, data from country’s Ministry of Finance data showed. That was far lower than the expected 4.2% decrease.

The USD/CNY pair lost 0.4% to 6.9283.

The Australian dollar rose 0.2% to 0.6858 after a surprise drop in unemployment.

Meanwhile,the U.S. dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies last traded at 97.335, up 0.04%.

The index traded higher overnight after the National Association of Realtors said pending home sales rose 3.6% to a 5.54 million annual rate. That was the strongest pace of growth since February 2018.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

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Forex – Dollar Edges Higher on Bullish Housing Data

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Invesing.com – The dollar edged higher against its rivals Wednesday, as bullish housing data strengthened expectations that the U.S. economy will remain on solid footing.

The , which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.06% 97.58.

The National Association of Realtors said rose 3.6% to a 5.54 million annual rate. That was the strongest pace of growth since February 2018.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, attributed the higher level of housing activity to strong job creation, high consumer confidence and low mortgage rates.

A sharp uptick in the pound, meanwhile, kept the dollar on the backfoot as positive U.K. economy data cooled expectations that the Bank of England will cut rates at the end of the month.

rose 0.59% to $ 1.312.

But some analysts see limited upside for cable, arguing that seasonal factors will likely weigh on the sterling.

“There is little evidence so far of a broad based rebound in sentiment following the general election plus seasonal factors tend to weigh on GBP through February and March,” Bank of America said.

With just a day ago until the European Central Bank meeting, the euro was largely flat against the dollar at $ 1.109.

rose 0.62% to C$ 1.315 after the Bank of Canada kept its benchmark rate on hold, but left the door open to a future rate cut, saying that it will monitor data to gauge whether the recent slowdown in domestic growth has accelerated.

“Today’s statement makes us more comfortable with our call for a rate cut in April, and market odds of a move by mid-year are now slightly above 50%,” RBC said

The was also knocked by a fall in oil prices after the International Energy Agency warned of a surplus in oil supplies by 1 million barrels per day in the first half of this year.

was flat at Y109.87 on subdued safe-haven demand despite reports that the death toll from the Coronavirus had increased to 17, raising fears of contagion.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

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Forex – U.S. Dollar Little Changed, AUD/USD Pair Rises Ahead of Jobs Data

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By Alex Ho

Investing.com – The U.S. dollar was near flat on Monday in Asia, while the Aussie dollar gained ahead of the release of the country’s latest jobs data.

The U.S. dollar index was near flat at 97.365. Figures released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed U.S. housing starts in December were well above economists’ estimates for 1.38 million and were the biggest gain in 13 years.

Retail sales were also on the rise and a gauge of manufacturing activity rebounded to its highest in eight months.

The positive data reduced chances that the Federal Reserve would slash rates when it meets later this month.

Meanwhile, the pair rose 0.2% to 0.6886 as traders awaited Australian jobs data due on Thursday. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets next month and might announce further stimulus following three rate cuts last year amid widespread bushfires.

The pair also rose 0.2% to 0.6620.

The gained 0.2% against the U.S. dollar after jumping late last week on strong economic growth figures. China reported that its gross domestic product grew 6% in the fourth quarter, meaning economic growth slowed to 6.1% in 2019. While this is in line with expectations, it’s also the country’s weakest growth in nearly three decades.

The pair was near flat at 110.17.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

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Forex – Dollar Rides Bullish Housing Data Higher

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By Yasin Ebrahim

Invesing.com – The dollar advanced Friday as bullish housing data offset weaker labor data, adding to growing expectations that the U.S. economy will continue to expand.

The , which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.30% to 97.61.

The Commerce Department said rose 16.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.61 million units in December, well above economists’ estimates for 1.38 million and the biggest gain in 13 years.

The strong uptick in housing starts will lift forecasts for fourth-quarter residential investment, but is unlikely to be sustained, increasing the chances of a hefty correction in January is a good bet, Pantheon Macroeconomics said.

The report also highlighted a 3.9% decline in to a rate of 1.42 million units, short of estimates for 1.47 million.

The U.S. Labor Department’s latest (JOLTs) report, a measure of labor demand, showed job openings in November were 6.8 million, well below expectations for 7.23 million.

Sentiment on the economy was also supported by ongoing signs that the consumer remains in good shape.

The University of Michigan’s preliminary for January edged down to 99.1 from a seven-month high of 99.3 in December, data showed Friday.

fell 0.45% to $ 1.301 as disappointing retail sales data raised expectations that the Bank of England will cut rates at its next meeting.

fell 0.40% to $ 1.11 as bearish sentiment on the single currency continued ahead of the European Central Bank meeting next week.

was flat at Y110.14 as demand for safe-haven yen continued to fall amid a rally in equities.

rose 0.20% to C$ 1.31.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

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China December trade data shows exports rise 9% y/y

December trade balance from China, these in ‘yuan terms’ 

Exports for the month +9.0% compared with +2.9% expected

  • For the year exports +5% y/y

Imports beat huge, +17.7% y/y, vs expected at +8.6%

  • for the Jan to Dec year imports +1.6% y/y

As part of the data release, shows trade between the US and China is down 10.7% y/y in 2019. 

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Forex – U.S. Dollar Flat Ahead of Inflation Data, Trade Deal Signing in Focus

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Investing.com – The U.S. dollar was flat on Monday in Asia ahead of the release of the latest inflation data. The potential signing of the phase one trade deal later this week is also in focus.

The U.S. dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies last traded at 97.078 by 11:35 PM ET (03:35 GMT), unchanged from yesterday’s close.

The latest U.S. inflation figures, due on Tuesday, are expected to remain broadly in line with the 2% inflation target, while retail sales numbers from the holiday season will also be closely watched.

A number of Federal Reserve officials will also speak this week. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Atlanta Fed head Raphael Bostic will both discuss the economic outlook in appearances on Monday. Kansas City Fed President Esther George is due to deliver remarks on Tuesday, while Patrick Harker of the Philadelphia Fed and Robert Kaplan of the Dallas Fed are both due to make appearances on Wednesday.

The pair dropped 0.2% to 1.3036. Figures on fourth-quarter growth, trade, industrial output, retail sales and inflation all due to be released this week. The data will be closely watched after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney last week promised a “relatively prompt response” if economic weakness persists.

On the Brexit front, the U.K. is due to leave the EU on Jan. 31. It is uncertain whether 11 months will be enough to reach a deal. EU chief Ursula von der Leyen has earlier warned that a comprehensive U.K.-EU trade deal is “impossible” by the 2020 deadline.

“We will go as far as we can, but the truth is that our partnership cannot and will not be the same as before and it cannot and will not be as close as before because with every choice comes a consequences with every decision comes a trade off,” she said earlier this month.

The pair and the pair both rose 0.2%.

The safe-haven yen retreated as Asian equities traded higher today. The pair slid 0.2% to 109.62.

The pair lost 0.2% to 6.9004. China’s GDP data is due later this week.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

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U.S. dollar share of global currency reserves highest for a year in third quarter: IMF data

(Reuters) – The U.S. dollar’s share of currency reserves reported to the International Monetary Fund rose in the third quarter to its highest level in a year, while the yen’s share of reserves grew to the largest in two decades, data released on Monday showed.

Reserves held in U.S. dollars totaled $ 6.75 trillion, or 61.78% of allocated reserves, in the third quarter, compared with $ 6.78 trillion, or 61.49%, in the second quarter.

This was the greenback’s largest share of overall reserves since the third quarter of 2018 when it was 61.93%.

The yen’s share of global allocated FX reserves rose to 5.60% in the third quarter to largest share since 2000, data showed.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

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Forex – U.S. Dollar Slips On Impeachment News; AUD Climbs on Jobs Data

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Investing.com – The U.S. dollar slipped on Thursday in Asia after U.S. House of Representatives voted to impeach Republican U.S. President Donald Trump for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.

Trump is the third president to be impeached in U.S. history but is likely to survive a trial in the GOP-led Senate, which is expected to vote in January.

The U.S. dollar index slipped 0.1% to 96.925 by 11:30 PM ET (03:30 GMT).

On the data front, the National Association of Realtors will report on existing home sales for November tomorrow.

Sales of existing homes are expected to have dropped 0.2% last month to an annual rate of 5.44 million, according to forecasts compiled by Investing.com.

Initial jobless claims is also due. Economists are looking for a drop in claims for first-time unemployment benefits to 225,000.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve will release its manufacturing index for December on the same day. Economists expect the Philly Fed Index to come in at 8 for the month from 10.4 in November. The index tracks manufacturing in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware.

The USD/JPY pair gained 0.1% to 109.57 after the Bank of Japan kept its policy unchanged on Thursday morning. The central bank maintained its forward guidance, saying it expected rates to remain low or lower as long as there was a chance of losing price momentum. The decision was largely in line with expectation.

The Australian dollar climbed 0.3% against the U.S. dollar to reach 0.6875 after data showed the country’s unexpectedly in November declined. Employment jumped 39,900 last month, compared with economists’ estimates of a 15,000 gain, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed Thursday.

The NZD/USD pair also gained 0.1% to 0.6591 after the country’s third quarter came in stronger than expected.

The GBP/USD pair recovered and inched up 0.1% to 1.3082 after falling this week amid renewed concern of a possible no-deal Brexit.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

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Russia hit with 4-year Olympics ban for falsified doping data

Lausanne, Switzerland — Russia will miss next year’s Tokyo Olympics and the 2022 Beijing Winter Games after the World Anti-Doping Agency on Monday banned the powerhouse from global sporting events for four years over manipulated doping data.

WADA’s executive committee, meeting in Lausanne, decided that Russia be handed the four-year suspension after accusing Moscow of falsifying laboratory doping data handed over to investigators earlier this year.

Not only will Russia be ruled out of the next Olympic cycle, but Russian government officials will be barred from attending any major events, while the country will lose the right to host, or even bid, for tournaments.

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“WADA’s executive committee approved unanimously to assert a non-compliance on the Russian anti-doping agency for a period of four years,” WADA spokesman James Fitzgerald said.

Under the sanctions, Russian sportsmen and women will still be allowed to compete at the Olympics next year but only if they can demonstrate that they were not part of what WADA believes was a state-sponsored system of doping.

“They are going to have prove they had nothing to do with the non-compliance, (that) they were not involved in the doping schemes as described by the McLaren report, or they did not have their samples affected by the manipulation,” Fitzgerald said.

2016: Russian doping at Sochi Winter Olympics exposed

The independent report by Richard McLaren, released in 2016, revealed the significant extent of state-sponsored doping in Russia, notably between 2011 and 2015.

It led to the Russian Anti-Doping Agency (RUSADA) being suspended for nearly three years previously over revelations of a vast state-supported doping programme.

Full disclosure of data from the Moscow laboratory was a key condition of Russia’s controversial reinstatement by WADA in September 2018.

“An attack on sport”

The WADA decision was widely predicted, with the body’s president, Craig Reedie, having made a presentation Saturday to the Olympic Summit, participants of which “strongly condemned those responsible for the manipulation of the data from the Moscow laboratory.”

“It was agreed that this was an attack on sport and that these actions should lead to the toughest sanctions against those responsible,” the IOC said in a statement.

“It was stressed by the participants that full justice must be finally done so that the guilty ones can be properly punished and the innocent ones are fully protected.”

The IOC (International Olympic Committee) asked that the Russian authorities deliver the “fully authenticated raw data.”

A majority of WADA’s influential athlete committee had called overnight for a “complete ban on Russian participation,” with nine members of the 17-strong group saying such a move was “the only meaningful sanction.”

“We maintain that the fraud, manipulation and deception revealed to date will only be encouraged and perpetuated with a lesser response,” they said.

Russia reacts

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said the ban against his country was the result of “anti-Russian hysteria” and should be appealed. “This is the continuation of this anti-Russian hysteria that has already become chronic,” Medvedev was quoted as saying by local news agencies. 

The head of Russia’s anti-doping agency said his country had “no chance” of winning an appeal against the ban, which he called a tragedy for clean athletes.

“There is no chance of winning this case in court,” RUSADA chief Yury Ganus told AFP.

RUSADA’s supervisory board was set to meet on December 19 to take a decision on whether to appeal the ban, he said. “This is a tragedy,” he said. “Clean athletes are seeing their rights limited.”

Ganus said that some Russian athletes were contemplating leaving Russia so that they could train elsewhere. He described the sentiments among athletes as “awful,” stressing that four years for a sportsman is a long time.

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