US equities close higher again with a strong finish to cap a great week

US equity performance on Friday

  • S&P 500 up 13 points to 3329 or +0.4%
  • DJIA +0.2%
  • Nasdaq +0.3%

On the week:

  • S&P 500 +1.9%
  • DJIA +1.8%
  • Nasdaq +2.3%

The gains have been non-stop in large caps but it hasn’t been quite the same party in small and mid-caps. I’ll be watching the Russell 2000 in the weeks ahead as it approaches resistance.

US equity performance on Friday

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European equities keep more steady at the open

Flattish tones observed to start the day

  • Eurostoxx +0.2%
  • Germany DAX +0.2%
  • France CAC 40 +0.1%
  • UK FTSE flat
  • Spain IBEX flat

ForexLive

There isn’t much enthusiasm in markets so far today as investors continue to take in the US-China Phase One trade deal signing and details from yesterday. US futures are up by ~0.2% while bonds are also keeping more flat to begin the session.

As such, the overall risk mood remains more measured with USD/JPY still lingering just under the 110.00 handle – trading in a 13 pips range so far today.

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US equities finish flat on Friday

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European equities mildly higher to start the day

Trade hopes are keeping equities a little more cheerful for now

  • Eurostoxx +0.3%
  • Germany DAX +0.3%
  • France CAC 40 +0.3%
  • UK FTSE +0.3%
  • Italy MIB +0.4%

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Equity investors continue to take heart in the earlier story that China is waiving tariffs on some US farm products, and that is keeping stocks slightly higher to start the session.

There’s still plenty of potential pitfalls though during the day with US non-farm payrolls a key risk event to watch later today. Otherwise, be wary of more trade headlines as we count down to the 15 December tariffs deadline next week.

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European equities softer at the open to start the week

The risk mood continues to stay on the defensive today

  • Eurostoxx -0.3%
  • Germany DAX -0.3%
  • France CAC 40 -0.3%
  • UK FTSE -0.4%
  • Italy MIB -0.3%

ForexLive

This keeps in tune with US futures, which are down by ~0.4% in trading at the moment. Conflicting signals surrounding US-China trade talks and the civil unrest in Hong Kong is leading to the softer risk tones so far today.

In the currencies space, little has changed since Asia Pacific trading, with the yen still holding slightly firmer – USD/JPY at 108.98 – alongside mild gains in the pound and kiwi.

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Closing changes: US equities almost complete the comeback

US equity market performance

On the day:

  • S&P 500 -0.2%
  • Dow -0.2%
  • Nasdaq -0.1%

On the week:

  • S&P 500 +1.7%
  • Dow +1.2%
  • Nasdaq +1.9%

The S&P 500 had been down as much as 28 points but finished down just 5. The Nasdaq also turned briefly positive late before finishing lower. The market is sending signals that bad news can’t keep it down.

I can find a half-dozen good fundamental reasons to argue against stocks but I can’t find any technical ones.

SPX

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Deutsche Bank U.S. Cuts May Go Deeper Than Equities, Rates

© Bloomberg. People enter Deutsche Bank AG headquarters on Wall Street in New York, U.S., on Thursday, April, 26, 2018. Deutsche Bank AG is planning to cut more than 10 percent of U.S. jobs as it withdraws from businesses where it can't compete, a person briefed on the matter said. © Bloomberg. People enter Deutsche Bank AG headquarters on Wall Street in New York, U.S., on Thursday, April, 26, 2018. Deutsche Bank AG is planning to cut more than 10 percent of U.S. jobs as it withdraws from businesses where it can’t compete, a person briefed on the matter said.

(Bloomberg) — Deutsche Bank (DE:) AG’s job cuts across the U.S. will probably go far beyond equities and interest-rate derivatives trading, which have been marked as major targets, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

The German lender plans to start informing U.S. workers of the reductions beginning Monday provided its restructuring plan is adopted over the weekend, the people said, asking not to be identified because the matter is private. They didn’t give further details on which businesses may be affected.

Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing is poised to adopt a sweeping restructuring plan focused on as many as 20,000 job cuts worldwide and a pullback from large areas of investment banking, the people have said. The bank may shutter U.S. equities trading entirely and a number of senior executives including U.S. chief Tom Patrick are leaving the bank, they said. The bank hasn’t yet detailed the cuts or how they’ll be distributed.

A Deutsche Bank spokesman declined to comment.

Germany’s largest lender employed 9,253 people in the U.S. at the end of 2018, down more than 10% on the previous year on the back of a restructuring Sewing introduced a little more than a year ago. Though the regional unit made a small profit last year, it racked up billions of dollars in losses in the preceding years. It has also been repeatedly under fire from U.S. regulators even though it recently passed the Fed’s stress test.

European operations are expected to fare much better. Deutsche Bank’s Nordic region chief Jan Olsson predicted that the overhaul will have little impact on the businesses he oversees. The area is “an integral part of the strategy at Deutsche Bank,” he said in an interview on Thursday.

Sewing has repeatedly said that Deutsche Bank remains committed to its U.S. presence, as the company wants to ensure it can continue to cater to the capital markets needs of large European companies. The lender may finalize the restructuring when the board meets this weekend.

(Updates with Nordic region CEO in sixth paragraph.)

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US equities bounce around late but finish near the highs

Closing changes for the main indexes

  • S&P 500 up 18 points to 2793, up 0.6%
  • Nasdaq +0.5%
  • DJIA +0.7%

Here’s the intraday on the S&P 500. It dipped on the China trade talks and that has me worried. The commentary was entirely positive but it wasn’t good enough. To me it’s starting to look like a deal is fully priced in and all the risks are to the downside.

Closing changes for the main indexes

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European equities little changed at the open to kick start the new week

Risk is lacking direction as we begin the week

  • Eurostoxx -0.1%
  • Germany DAX +0.1%
  • France CAC 40 -0.1%
  • UK FTSE opens flat
  • Spain IBEX -0.1%
  • Italy FTSE MIB -0.1%

ForexLive

The sentiment here is very much reflected by US equity futures, with E-minis trading near unchanged levels still at the start of the European morning. Trade talks continue to be the focus of markets and with little clue on how things are developing right now, investors and traders don’t really have much to work with at this point.

E-minis 04-02

USD/JPY still looks poised for an upside move though with price still trading at the highs now near 109.86. Other yen pairs are also inching higher with EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY also hitting highs of 125.83 and 79.53 on the day.

Treasury yields are a little higher again with 10-year yields now up nearly 2 bps to 2.704%. That’s likely helping with the move higher in yen pairs to start the session, though I still find it hard to envisage a meaningful break in USD/JPY above 110.00 for now.

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