Forex – Yen Pushes Higher; Euro in Focus as ECB Meets

© Reuters.  © Reuters.

Investing.com – The safe haven Japanese yen gained against the U.S. dollar Thursday on a sharp bout of risk aversion, as battles to contain the new pneumonia-like virus in China intensified, although volatility remained limited.

By 03:30 ET (0830 GMT), the yen had climbed 0.2% against the dollar, with trading at 109.56. The Chinese yuan dropped 0.4% against the greenback, with trading at 6.9313. The Futures, which tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies, was essentially flat at 97.30.

Earlier Thursday, China issued a travel suspension in Wuhan, a city of 11 million at the center of the outbreak of the coronavirus, as its latest attempt to stop the spread of the disease. The virus has killed at least 17 people so far and infected hundreds of people in China, and as far afield as the U.S., Thailand, Taiwan, Japan and the Republic of Korea.

Elsewhere, the pair inched down 0.1% to 1.1087 as traders awaited the European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting due later in the day. The meeting will be followed by a press conference with President Christine Lagarde.

Economists expect no changes in any of the monetary policy instruments, and the focus will be on the central bank’s outlook and information on its the strategic review.

“In this environment, markets could pay most attention to the comments talking about a tentative stabilization of economic data and some removal of downside risks,” said analysts at Nordea, in a research note, “which in other words would mean less need for immediate easing.”

That said, Nordea doesn’t expect the euro to receive much lasting support from the central bank, “as the bar for the market to price in any notable ECB tightening remains high.”

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forex News

Forex – Dollar Calm; Focus on Emerging Central Banks

© Reuters.  © Reuters.

Investing.com – The U.S. dollar is largely unchanged in European trade early Thursday, as a degree of calm prevails following the signing of the Sino-U.S. trade deal.

At 03:25 ET (0825 GMT), the traded at $ 1.1155, up 0.1%, while stood at $ 1.3046, up 0.1%. The traded at 110.05 yen, up 0.1%. The , which tracks the greenback against a basket of developed market currencies, was down 0.1% at 96.910.

That signing of the much-anticipated phase one trade agreement between the U.S. and China should draw a line under 18 months of tit-for-tat tariff hikes that have hurt global growth.

The signing should result in a calmer market in 2020 from at least one point of view, although underlying tensions between the U.S. on the hand and Europe and China on the other still remain.

“The U.S.-China deal implies that the amount of uncertainty related to trade war declines significantly in the short-term,” according to a research note from Tuuli Koivu at Nordea. “We assume that after having achieved the phase one trade deal with China, Trump will not take huge risks when running for president at the November elections.”

Looking elsewhere, the South African central bank holds its latest rate setting meeting at 8:00 AM ET (13:00 GMT). The bank is widely expected to hold its key repo rate unchanged at 6.5%. That said, the last meeting in November showed a split between the members, with three of the five members voting to hold, while two favored a cut.

Turkey’s central bank also meets Thursday to decide on interest rates, having slashed borrowing costs in half from 24 percent in July. Thirteen of 21 economists surveyed by Reuters predicted another rate cut, with six expecting the bank to lower interest rates by 100 basis points to 11 percent. Some analysts argue that that would leave Turkish real interest rates too low, given that inflation has rebounded to nearly 12% in the last couple of months.

At 03:25 AM ET (08:25 GMT), the traded at 14.3906 rand, and the at 5.8887 lira.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forex News

Forex – U.S. Dollar Flat Ahead of Inflation Data, Trade Deal Signing in Focus

© Reuters.  © Reuters.

Investing.com – The U.S. dollar was flat on Monday in Asia ahead of the release of the latest inflation data. The potential signing of the phase one trade deal later this week is also in focus.

The U.S. dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies last traded at 97.078 by 11:35 PM ET (03:35 GMT), unchanged from yesterday’s close.

The latest U.S. inflation figures, due on Tuesday, are expected to remain broadly in line with the 2% inflation target, while retail sales numbers from the holiday season will also be closely watched.

A number of Federal Reserve officials will also speak this week. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Atlanta Fed head Raphael Bostic will both discuss the economic outlook in appearances on Monday. Kansas City Fed President Esther George is due to deliver remarks on Tuesday, while Patrick Harker of the Philadelphia Fed and Robert Kaplan of the Dallas Fed are both due to make appearances on Wednesday.

The pair dropped 0.2% to 1.3036. Figures on fourth-quarter growth, trade, industrial output, retail sales and inflation all due to be released this week. The data will be closely watched after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney last week promised a “relatively prompt response” if economic weakness persists.

On the Brexit front, the U.K. is due to leave the EU on Jan. 31. It is uncertain whether 11 months will be enough to reach a deal. EU chief Ursula von der Leyen has earlier warned that a comprehensive U.K.-EU trade deal is “impossible” by the 2020 deadline.

“We will go as far as we can, but the truth is that our partnership cannot and will not be the same as before and it cannot and will not be as close as before because with every choice comes a consequences with every decision comes a trade off,” she said earlier this month.

The pair and the pair both rose 0.2%.

The safe-haven yen retreated as Asian equities traded higher today. The pair slid 0.2% to 109.62.

The pair lost 0.2% to 6.9004. China’s GDP data is due later this week.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forex News

Forex: Dollar Inches Higher as Focus Shifts to U.S-China Trade Deal

© Reuters.  © Reuters.

Invesing.com – The U.S. dollar inched higher Thursday, on improved risk sentiment amid optimism that the U.S-China trade war may be nearing an end and easing tensions in the Middle East.

The , which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.17% to 96.17.

China’s commerce ministry said on Thursday that Vice Premier Liu He is set to sign the phase one trade deal in Washington next week, stoking hopes that the partial deal will eventually pave a path for both nations to end their months-long trade war.

As well as positive trade news, de-escalating tensions in the Middle East kept safe-haven currencies on the back foot, underpinning the move higher in the greenback.

rose 0.34% to Y109.47.

The pound, meanwhile, continued to wobble after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney suggested the central bank was mulling near-term stimulus as its economic forecasts may have been somewhat lofty.

“The takeaway is that the Monetary Policy Committee could be more inclined to ease policy further,” Rabobank’s Jane Foley said. “These policy risks are likely to be accentuated if political uncertainty builds again in the U.K.”

fell 0.32% to $ 1.306 and drew little reaction on news that U.K. lawmakers backed Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal agreed with the EU last year.

The outcome of the vote was largely expected, however, following the ruling Conservative party’s commanding win in the general election last month.

The was roughly flat at $ 1.111 even as topped economists’ forecasts.

rose 0.35% to C$ 1.308, as weaker Canada housing data did little to ease investor jitters that the recent downtick in economic growth would persist.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forex News

US dollar climbs, trade talks in focus

© Reuters.  © Reuters.

Investing.com – The dollar climbed, and Asian currencies moved sideways on Tuesday morning in Asia after US President Donald Trump announced plans to reinstate steel and aluminum tariffs on Brazil and Argentina.

The announcement followed the release Monday in the US of new data from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) which noted that manufacturing activity there contracted in November. The fell to 48.1 in November, below expectations. A reading under 50 suggests contraction. The US dollar gained some ground on morning trade in Asia. The , which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, was up 0.07% to 97.92 by 8:50 PM ET (01:50 GMT).

US-China trade talks remained a focus for traders with uncertainty remaining after Trump said on Monday that the signing last week of two pieces of legislation in the US that support protesters in Hong Kong would not make negotiations easier, but that China still wants a deal.

Over the weekend, Global Times, a nationalist English-language tabloid in China, tweeted that a phase one trade deal would require that the US roll back tariffs. The next batch of American tariffs on Chinese goods are due to take effect on Dec. 15.

In mainland China, The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the reference rate for the yuan, the midpoint around which the currency is allowed to trade, at 7.0223, slightly weaker than the 7.0409 on Monday.

The pair was down 0.03% to 1.2933 as the UK moves closer to an election on December 12. The results of the election could lend some clarity to the future of Brexit.

The was down 0.05% to 1.1072.

The pair gained in morning trading and was up 0.07% to 109.04.

The pair was flat at 0.6817 while the was marginally down, dropping 0.02% to 0.6501.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forex News

Election Road to More U.K. Borrowing Puts Focus on Bond Spread

(Bloomberg) — There are so many scenarios in U.K. politics now it’s hard for investors to know where to turn. With both main parties aiming to ramp up spending after next month’s election, a bond market spread is likely to widen no matter which side wins.

Whoever forms the next government, there is an increased risk of a swelling budget deficit that would be funded by extra borrowing in the bond market. That is likely to hurt gilts and widen their spread against interest-rate swaps.

If Boris Johnson’s ruling Conservatives win as polls suggest, they will look to end a decade of austerity. Victory for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party would open up the spending taps further and also risk capital flight that would widen this swap spread even more. Either way, investors would need to hedge against the possibility of a hung Parliament, where no side has a majority.

  • Interest-rate swaps, which exchange fixed-rate payments for floating rates, have many drivers pushing and pulling their spread against bonds. For example, a turn in global sentiment away from risky assets means a preference to own government bonds rather than a credit instrument such as a swap. Other factors could include Bank of England asset purchases, funding levels that determine the carry between the two products, and flows from pension funds and insurers.
  • Higher demand and a lack of supply has seen 30-year gilts outperform swaps in recent weeks, but the increase in issuance from government budget requirements could see gilts falling versus swaps, taking the spread back toward the 2019 summer lows of around minus 60 basis points.
  • Thursday’s vote split on interest rates at the BOE signaled a short-term easing bias that saw the 2s10s gilt curve steepen, as front-end yields fell on the BOE while long-end yields moved higher with global bonds as well as the expected incoming fiscal wave.
  • A majority government should create the potential for a BOE rate hike given the fiscal spending outlook and potentially less Brexit uncertainty. A hung Parliament that prolongs uncertainty and could rein in spending ambitions via a coalition government would instead see the swap spread narrow, which could be hedged with receiver options that would pay off on a rally in gilts.
  • NOTE: Tanvir Sandhu is a global fixed income and derivatives strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not as investment advice

To contact the strategist on this story: Tanvir Sandhu in London at tsandhu17@bloomberg.net

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forex News

European pre-market: Dollar stays softer as focus turns to payrolls

The dollar is on the back foot once again today

WCRS 01-11
ForexLive

The dollar is weaker across the board as markets continue to keep up the post-FOMC flows ahead of the weekend. Notably, the kiwi is leading gains but NZD/USD continues to rest just above 0.6400 after a bit of a shaky performance yesterday.

The risk mood got a bit of a setback overnight following some US-China trade pessimism, but things are looking more steady for the time being.

USD/JPY continues to hug the 108.00 handle after the yen surged higher in trading yesterday, with price action likely to stay supported near the figure level ahead of the US non-farm payrolls release later in the day.

Option expiries will also be a key factor to watch out for today as they may limit price action during the session ahead. Large chunks are seen in EUR/USD between 1.1150 and 1.1200, GBP/USD at 1.2950, and AUD/USD at the 0.6900 level.

Looking ahead, the market focus should switch towards the jobs data as the next clue for dollar flows. At the same time, be wary of more trade headlines that could potentially affect the risk mood during the day.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forexlive RSS Breaking news feed

Dollar holds gains as oil shock eases, Fed in focus

By Stanley White

TOKYO (Reuters) – The dollar traded near a seven-week high versus the yen as oil markets recovered from a supply shock, but the focus is firmly on a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting later on Wednesday that is widely expected to deliver an interest rate cut.

Sterling traded near a six-week high versus the dollar as some speculators reduced excessive bets on a decline in the pound, but sentiment remained weak due to uncertainty over how the UK will exit the European Union.

Major currencies are likely to trade in narrow ranges before the Fed’s meeting. Fed Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has clearly broadcast his intention to cut rates, so some analysts warn that the dollar could actually bounce if the Fed eases policy as expected.

“Speculators are already excessively short in the dollar,” said Yukio Ishizuki, foreign exchange strategist at Daiwa Securities in Tokyo.

“If there are no surprises from the Fed, the speculators will have to give up their dollar shorts. The biggest reaction would be in dollar/yen, because you can’t really buy the pound or the euro at the moment.”

The dollar traded at 108.10 yen on Wednesday, close to a seven-week high of 108.37 yen.

The British pound was quoted at $ 1.2497, holding onto a 0.6% gain from Tuesday, when it briefly touched the highest since July 19.

Oil prices tumbled around 6% on Tuesday after Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said the kingdom has tapped inventories to restore oil supplies to where they stood before drone attacks over the weekend shut around 5% of global oil output.

Economists and analysts widely expect the Fed to cut its benchmark rate for the second time this year by 25 basis points to 1.75%-2.00% at a meeting ending Wednesday to counter risks posed by the U.S.-China trade war.

However, an anomaly has emerged in futures pricing.

Short-term rates spiked overnight, which led the Fed to inject $ 53.15 billion into the financial system with a money market operation it has not used in more than a decade.

The chaotic moves in money markets and late-day swings in U.S. federal funds futures mean the CME’s tool shows about a 51% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the currency market, the euro stood at $ 1.1072 (), flat so far in Asia

The Australian dollar fetched $ 0.68605 , down 0.07% in early trade.

The () measuring the greenback against a basket of six major currencies fell 0.02% to 98.242.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forex News

Forex – U.S. Dollar Near Flat Ahead of Fed; Sino-U.S. Trade Talks in Focus

© Reuters.  © Reuters.

Investing.com – The U.S. dollar was near flat on Monday in Asia as traders remained cautious ahead of the highly anticipated U.S. Federal Reserve decision due later this week.

Policymakers are widely expected to deliver their first rate cut in more than a decade amid concerns over slowing growth and subdued inflation.

The central bank has faced repeated criticism from President Donald Trump over its rate increases and the ongoing reduction of its balance sheet. Trump believes the measures are holding back growth.

The U.S. Dollar that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies was little changed at 97.722 by 11:35 AM ET (03:35 GMT).

The greenback was near two-month highs last week. Last Friday, data showed U.S. grew at a 2.1% annualized rate in the second quarter, weaker than the 3.1% pace in the first quarter but stronger than the 1.8% forecast by economists.

Looking ahead, U.S. job report for July is due later this week. Analysts expect the economy to add 160,000 jobs, slowing from 224,000 in June. The unemployment rate is expected to tick down to 3.6%.

The pair was down 0.1% to 1.2370. The pound has now fallen more than 5% against the U.S. dollar since May, largely on fears of a no-deal Brexit.

The Bank of England is expected to keep rates on hold at its meeting on Thursday.

The pair slipped 0.1%. The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates unchanged on Tuesday when it meets. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s briefing will follow the meeting on the same day.

Meanwhile, the pair gained 0.2% to 6.6911. Chinese and U.S. officials will meet on Tuesday for two days of trade talks, according to reports. It is suggested neither side is expecting much hope for a breakthrough. Vice Premier Liu He is expected to lead the talks for China.

The talks will come after a truce reached by President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G-20 summit Japan in June.

“There is still a huge gap between the two sides on key sticking points,” said Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley (NYSE:) in Hong Kong, in a Bloomberg report. “So far there is still no clear path toward a comprehensive deal.”

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forex News

Forex – U.S. Dollar Inches Up; Fed Officials’ Comments in Focus

© Reuters.  © Reuters.

Investing.com – The U.S. dollar inched up on Monday in Asia as investors turned their attention to global central bank decisions scheduled for the next two weeks, starting with the European Central Bank which meets on Thursday followed by the Bank of Japan and then the Federal Reserve next week.

The that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies inched up 0.1% to 96.875 by 1:01 AM ET (05:01 GMT).

Expectations for a 50-basis-point Fed cut soared last week after a dovish speech by New York Fed President John Williams. But investors tempered expectations after a Fed spokesman clarified that the remarks did not refer to potential policy action at the upcoming Fed meeting.

Expectations for a larger cut were scaled back even more after the Wall Street Journal reported the Fed was likely to cut rates by 25 bps this month, and may make further cuts in the future given global growth and trade uncertainties.

On Friday, James Bullard, another member of the U.S. central bank, said he favors lowering interest rates by a quarter point when officials meet later this month.

The pair edged down 0.04% to 1.1215. The European Central Bank’s policy meeting will be closely watched as investors wait to see what steps Mario Draghi may take to support the euro area economy.

The pair trade 0.3% higher to 107.96. Japan’s manufacturing data is due on Wednesday.

The pair slipped 0.1% as concerns over the prospect of a no-deal Brexit continue to build. The British pound traded near a 27-month low against the dollar last week before recovering slightly on Friday.

The pair was little changed at 0.7038, while the pair was up 0.2% to 0.6776.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forex News