Goldman Sachs has lowered its forecast for oil demand growth this year

HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.

ADVISORY WARNING: FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect’s individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FOREXLIVE™ specifically advises clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. FOREXLIVE™ expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits without limitation which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. As with all such advisory services, past results are never a guarantee of future results.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forexlive RSS Breaking news feed

Atlanta Fed Q2 GDPNow forecast bumped to 1.3% from 1.2%

Slightly higher

The latest Atlanta Fed Q2 GDP tracker is 1.3%, up from 1.2% eight days ago.

“After the U.S. Census Bureau’s releases on new home sales and construction costs on Thursday, May 23, the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -4.0 percent to -1.6 percent,” the release said.

The consensus for Q2 growth has slid to 2% from 2.6% in April.

ForexLive

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forexlive RSS Breaking news feed

Goldman Pushes Back Fed Hike Forecast to 4Q 2020 From 1Q 2020

(Bloomberg) — Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:). have pushed back their forecast for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates amid low inflation and political scrutiny of the central bank’s decisions.

The U.S. bank now expects the Fed to hike in the fourth quarter of 2020 from the first quarter.

The shift comes even as the bank lifted its U.S. gross domestic product forecast to 2.5 percent in the second half of 2019 and 2.25 percent in the first half of 2020.

“But the inflation numbers have surprised to the downside even as the goalposts for the next rate hike have shifted higher with the FOMC’s emphasis on muted inflation pressures and review of its policy framework,” Goldman economists including Jan Hatzius and David Mericle wrote in the note. “Coupled with an increase in political scrutiny of monetary policy decisions, this has lowered the odds of a hike before next year’s presidential election.”

Still, the better growth outlook means the U.S. bank added a second rate hike in 2021 to its forecast.

“We expect the FOMC to adopt average inflation targeting next year, at least implicitly raising the inflation target to a level we expect to reach but not surpass,” the Goldman economists wrote. “But amidst normal U.S. business cycle expansion conditions of above-trend growth, continued labor market tightening, and ongoing easing in financial conditions, we think that the FOMC is likely to resume at least a very gradual pace of tightening.”

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forex News

Forex – Aussie Drops on RBA Forecast Cut; U.S. Dollar Edges Up

© Reuters.  © Reuters.

Investing.com – The Australian dollar fell against the U.S. dollar on Friday in Asia after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) slashed its GDP growth forecast for the year through June.

In its quarterly statement on Monetary Policy today, the central bank cut the GDP growth forecast to 2.5% from the previous 3.25%.

For the year to June 2020, the RBA cut its projection to 2.75% from 3.25% and sees 2021 growth at 2.75%. Unemployment is seen at 5.0% through 2019, unchanged from its current level.

On inflation, the headline CPI forecast was cut to 1.25%.

The pair fell 0.3% to 0.7077 following the news. The Australian currency has now shed 2.4% of its value so far this week.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar traded near a two-week high, supported by safe-haven demand, after President Donald Trump said this week he did not plan to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping before a March 1 deadline to achieve a trade deal.

White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow warned that there is a “pretty sizable distance to go” before China and the U.S. could reach an agreement, while Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin also noted this week that “wide range of issues” remains to be worked out.

China and the U.S. have until the start of March to strike a trade deal before additional tariffs on Chinese imports kick in.

The that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies last traded at 96.345, up 0.1%.

Elsewhere, the pair edged down 0.08% to 109.70.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forex News

Oil price forecast cuts (ICYMI)

This crossed from BNO on crude but only positing it now …. my bad but here goes:

Cut their oil price outlook, average 2019 price now at 68/bbl (Brent)

  • 61/bbl WTI

Previously at 76 and 69 respectively

More:

  • See tight supply in H1 of 2019 boosting prices
  • H2 prices to slip on slower economic activity, growing crude exports from the US

ForexLive

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forexlive RSS Breaking news feed

Here's a 0.60 forecast for the AUD/USD (and why)

Capital Economics overnight note on the Australian dollar, with a substantial forecast cut

CapEco were at 0.65 for 2019, now predict 0.60 

  • were at 0.70 for AUD in 2020, now at 0.60

Citing, on the Oz side:

  • commodity prices. We think that they will generally decline this year as China’s economy, which is a major trading partner of Australia, slows further. We expect especially large falls in the prices of iron ore …  and coal, which together account for 30% of Australia’s exports
  • The second is waning appetite for risk. We expect the US stock market to come under pressure again in 2019. On past form, when that has happened the Australian dollar has tended to fall
  • we now think that the ongoing downturn in the housing market will deepen, causing GDP growth to fall below potential. In light of this, we think that interest rates are more likely to fall than to rise in 2019 and 2020

On the US side:

  • Admittedly, we now think that the US federal funds rate will be cut to 1.75%-2.00% by end-2020, which is also about 40bp below what is currently priced into the market. 

ForexLive

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forexlive RSS Breaking news feed

BNZ nudge their 2018/19 milk price forecast up to $NZ6.25, from $6.00

BNZ with what they expect for Fonterra milk prices

In summary from the note:

  • we expect world prices for NZ’s major primary export products to be flat to mildly higher in 2019 albeit with variation across individual products. 
  • We expect something similar for prices in NZ dollars, given the benign outlook we have for NZD. 
  • The clear downside risk to this view is ongoing disturbance in global financial markets foretelling of a sharper world economic slowdown than currently anticipated. This would most likely see softer international pricing, although the NZ dollar would be expected to weaken and soften the blow to domestic farmers in that scenario. 
  • But assuming an orderly economic slowing offshore, we see the combined positives of structurally improving food demand in China and some supply tightness as enough to generate some price improvement. There will also be some initial benefits from the CPTPP trade pact filtering through this year

ForexLive

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forexlive RSS Breaking news feed

World Bank trims Philippines' GDP growth forecast for 2018, 2019

© Reuters. Woman scans the selection of canned goods at a grocery store in Makati © Reuters. Woman scans the selection of canned goods at a grocery store in Makati

MANILA (Reuters) – The World Bank said on Friday it slightly cut its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the Philippines as persistently high inflation eats into consumer spending.

The Philippine economy, among the fastest growing in Asia, is seen expanding by 6.4 percent in 2018 and 6.5 percent in 2019, a tad lower versus the October forecast of 6.5 percent and 6.7 percent, respectively.

High inflation might temper growth in private consumption in the fourth quarter of 2018, the World Bank said. But moderating price increases in the following quarters and the mid-term election in May will boost consumer confidence and raise private consumption in 2019, it added.

Philippine annual inflation, coming off its highest in nearly a decade, slowed to a four-month low in November amid slower growth in prices of food and utilities. It allowed the central bank last week to keep its benchmark interest rates unchanged, pausing after five straight hikes.

"A strong, consistent delivery of the infrastructure investment agenda while sustaining improvements in health, education and social protection will be key to maintaining the robust and inclusive growth outlook of the Philippines," said World Bank senior economist Rong Qian.

The Philippines could face headwinds from possibly weaker investment given a delay in approving the budget for 2019, while weak global trade could dampen exports, it said.

The government targets GDP growth of 6.5-6.9 percent this year, down from the previous 7-8 percent growth goal. The annual growth target for 2019-2022 has been kept at 7-8 percent.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forex News

Qorvo joins other Apple suppliers in cutting forecast

© Reuters.  Qorvo joins other Apple suppliers in cutting forecast © Reuters. Qorvo joins other Apple suppliers in cutting forecast

(Reuters) – Apple supplier Qorvo Inc cut its third-quarter forecast for profit and revenue on Tuesday, joining a handful of suppliers to the iPhone maker that have warned of an earnings hit due to lower demand from a major customer.

Qorvo, which supplies radio frequency chips to Apple, said the forecast cut was due to “recent demand changes for flagship smartphones.”

Analysts told Reuters on Monday that the “unnamed customer” the suppliers are blaming for their forecast cut is Apple.

Apple Inc (NASDAQ:) warned earlier this month that holiday sales would miss Wall Street expectations, blaming the fall on weakness in emerging markets and foreign exchange costs.

Lumentum Holdings Inc, the main supplier of the Face ID technology in the latest generation of iPhones, cut $ 70 million off its forecasts for revenue on Monday.

Screen maker Japan Display Inc cited lower smartphone demand in cutting its own outlook, while British chipmaker IQE Plc also said it expects a material reduction in its financial performance in the current year.

Qorvo currently expects third quarter revenue in the range of $ 800 million to $ 840 million, down from its previous forecast of $ 880 million to $ 900 million.

Shares of Qorvo fell 2.3 percent, while Apple was down nearly 1 percent in early trading.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Technology News