Joe Manchin to announce his political future on Tuesday morning

Senator Joe Manchin III, Democrat of West Virginia, one of the few bipartisan power brokers left in the sharply divided U.S. Senate, is set to announce Tuesday morning whether or not he plans to run again for his old job of West Virginia governor.

CBS News has learned that aides to Manchin were preparing drafts of two possible statements late Monday: One that signaled his intention to stay in the Senate and another announcing plans to run again for governor.

Manchin easily won re-election to the Senate last year, capitalizing on his reputation as a moderate Democrat and as one of the only members of his party in regular contact with President Trump. 

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Despite his bipartisan position of influence on Capitol Hill, Manchin has always maintained that he much preferred serving in an executive role as governor. He was elected to the role in 2004 and was re-elected in 2008. West Virginia law allows him to run again.

Manchin is a former friend-turned-foe of current Republican Governor Jim Justice, who won in 2016 as a Democrat but switched parties two years ago at the urging of Mr. Trump. The senator has been outspoken in his criticism of the sitting governor in recent months and welcomed speculation he might run again for his old job.

“I’ve had a lot of inquiries they want me to come back home,” Manchin told CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Aug. 18. “I have people think that maybe I should stay.”

Manchin, 72, joined the Senate in 2010, succeeding the late Sen. Robert C. Byrd, also a Democrat, and quickly became a liaison between the two parties. His knack for bipartisan deal making emerged especially during the 2013 debate over gun control legislation after the 2012 Sandy Hook, Connecticut school shooting left 20 schoolchildren dead. Although his bipartisan plan to expand the national gun background check system failed to pass, members of both parties credited him with leading the debate.

In the years since, he’s been a vocal critic of leaders in both parties and regularly draws the ire of liberal, or more partisan Democrats, for touting his partnership with Republicans or supporting GOP causes, including voting for Mr. Trump’s Supreme Court nominees, Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh

More recently, partisan Democrats have attacked him for endorsing the reelection of Sen. Susan Collins, Republican of Maine, one of his frequent GOP collaborators. 

“I can’t believe everyone’s so damn hypocritical. She’s the one person I work with all the time,” Manchin told Politico last month about his endorsement. “Why would you not expect me to do that?”

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U.S. – CBSNews.com

Eyeing post-Brexit trade deals, Britain looks to train school-leavers as future negotiators

By Kylie MacLellan

LONDON (Reuters) – As Britain prepares to carry out its own trade negotiations for the first time in decades, the government has launched a scheme to recruit and train school-leavers as future commerce experts.

The Department of International Trade, which was created after the 2016 vote to leave the European Union, said its two-year scheme would include placements with teams working on future trade deals and supporting British companies exporting.

“As we leave the European Union and take up trade in our own right as a policy, we have had to develop all the skills to be able to do that,” trade minister Liam Fox said at the launch of the scheme, as school children taking part in a mock trade negotiation noisily bartered over products in the background.

“I wanted young people in particular to look at the world of trade and say ‘that is a profession I would like to go into, that is something I would like to do as a career.'”

Britain cannot formally sign trade deals with other countries until it has left the European Union but has been working to amass expertise, replicate agreements it is part of as a member of the EU and lay the groundwork for new deals.

Those applying for the scheme, which will pay around 30,000 pounds ($ 37,600) a year, do not need to have any qualifications. The department expects most candidates will either be 18-year-old school-leavers or people wanting to switch careers.

It will also include a six-month posting in one of Britain’s trade offices around the world.

“If you want to sell Britain properly you have to know what Britain has to sell but you have to also understand the markets that we are selling into,” Fox told Reuters.

Britain’s Chief Trade Negotiation Adviser Crawford Falconer, who previously worked as New Zealand’s Chief Negotiator, said the scheme was not about filling a gap in trade negotiating talent in Britain.

“We have got plenty of trade negotiating talent but what we need to have is greater diversity and greater choice and for people to enter at a younger age,” he said.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

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Liu He: China is cautiously optimistic about the future talks

Comments from China’s top negotiator

  • China and US agreed to continue talks in Beijing in the future
  • China will never compromise on principles
  • Talks with US were candid and constructive

The market is closed for the weekend but these are upbeat and in line with what we saw from the US.

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Algorithmic trading: Do the masters of the old school have a future?

A glance into algos and how they compare with the human elements of trading


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Man vs Machine

Once upon a time in the financial world it was all about getting the right ‘man’ to do the trading. Now, you may be forgiven for thinking that it is all about getting the right machine. 

The impact of our new age has been most keenly felt in the two spheres of globalization and automation and trading is no exception. The rewards can be large for those able to capitalize on the benefits that automation offer to us.

For example, the Medallion hedge fund founded in 1988 has achieved an average annual return of around 30%. However, don’t get your hopes up since the fund has been closed to the outside world since1993.

It simply focuses on trading its own money now. In 2018 it had $ 84 billion assets under management with profits of around $ 25 billion.

What is algorithmic trading?

For those unfamiliar with algorithmic trading it is simply trading that takes place on an automated level. Computers are given specific instructions to follow (algorithms) for making trades at large volumes and high speeds. 

The largest portion of today’s algo-trading is High Frequency trading (HFT) which places large numbers of orders and helps to make liquid markets. The following are some of the most well-known algos.

Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

This executes a buy order in a stock close to its historical trading volume in an attempt to reduce the trade’s impact on the market. To explain, imagine that over a month 5% of a stock’s trading volume typically occurs in the first hour of trading.

Armed with that knowledge then a computer with a client’s order will stop trading that order as soon as the 5% level is reached. The remainder of the order will be traded at a different time. The thinking behind this algo is to disguise heavier than normal trading activity, so other traders/machines don’t see what is happening.

If they did, and bid the price up, this would impact the price at which the order was filled.

Trade Weighted Average Price (TWAP)

This executes orders based on time. This is for the investor who wants to match the levels of volume that are going on at any particular time. If there is an increase in interest, then the algo will become more aggressive.

Similarly, if there is less volume going on then the algo will become less aggressive. This is an algo used by momentum traders who want to trade small, illiquid markets where volume analysis make’s less sense.

Guerilla

Developed by Credit Suisse it was developed to enter orders without signaling to the market place that a large order is being placed. It has a variety of techniques designed to cover its own tracks.

The algorithmic trader operating at pockets of volume

This is the algo trader who find pockets of volume in order to enter the market from the buy or sell side. This is type of trading is most likely to occur in the stock market where volume flows can be seen. 

This type of trading is much harder to execute in the forex market especially for retail traders.  It is only those with the ability to see large pools of volume that could profit from this knowledge. This would be banks, large traders, and brokers with a good sight of the market volume.  

There are supposed to be rules about front running these orders, but that is very hard to implement.So, the question you might be asking is, ‘Is it possible to compete with algorithimic trading as outlined above?

The short answer is no, not on an algos own terms. If the algo you are trading against is a High Frequency Trader (HFT) scalping the markets with the aid of a computerized program and advanced technology in order to aid execution, then you can’t compete with that.

If speed is needed to enter after an economic deviation then you can’t beat the algo for speed of execution. Furthermore, the HFT will have considerable resources and will be able to keep the algo running 24 hours a day and 5 days a week. No-one can keep awake for that amount of time, let alone function reliably.

Some algo trading uses technical areas to enter and exit

However, traders can still compete with algos by knowing when to take trades. This is where an edge can lie for the old school trader. For example, some algos will enter trades where pockets of large volume is likely to collect, such as around the 100 and 200 MA.

When that happens, the man, can evaluate the fundamental and sentiment of the market to allow the trade to run a little further or even decide whether to enter or not. Take the GBPUSD currency pair for example through December 13 to the time of writing on December 17. In the GBPUSD chart below Theresa May had been struggling considerably in getting her Brexit deal through Parliament.

As a result there was no appetite to buy the GBP and all the rallies were sold. Through December 13 and 14 Theresa May was trying to get assurance from European officials that the Irish Border issue would not be allowed to drag on indefinitely if the UK Parliament accepted May’s Brexit proposals.

Europe was not prepared to give legal assurance to Theresa May and the bearish GBP sentiment remained. In this instance the man has an advantage over the machine. The man can enter orders with the knowledge that there are strong sentiment factors to sell the GBP from the 100 and 200 moving averages on the 1hr chart.

The machine can only enter orders at the technical level. The man can choose whether to enter to not and whether the market dynamics are suitable.

There is still a future for the old school trader

So, the masters of the old school still do have a future and it revolves around interpreting market dynamics. There is also the human element that people like in the finance world. A machine does not have a personality, whereas a trader does. Some people will choose a man above a machine just out of preference for the human factor that a computer can’t meet. Not yet, anyway.

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Forex – Dollar Edges Higher on Sterling Slide as UK PM May's Future in Doubt

© Reuters.  © Reuters.

Investing.com – The dollar rose against its rivals Tuesday on higher-than-expected U.S. wholesale inflation and a slump in the pound amid growing uncertainty over UK Prime Minster Theresa May’s future.

The , which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.22% to 97.39.

The Labor Department said on Tuesday its for final demand increased 0.3% last month, above economists’ forecasts. In the 12 months through November, the rose 2.7%.

The uptick wholesale inflation did little to alter expectations for a December rate hike as of traders continue expect the Fed to hike rates next week, unchanged from a day earlier, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor tool.

For the second-straight day, weakness in sterling continued to underpin the greenback amid reports several UK lawmakers have sent letters of no confidence in UK PM May, raising doubt about her future.

Questions about May’s future arrived as she made little progress convincing lawmakers in Brussels to amend the terms of her Brexit deal, increasing the prospect of a another referendum, or an extension of Article 50, which was triggered in March last year, setting into motion Britain’s departure from the European Union.

“As a result, we think the UK’s position in the EU after March 2019 might still be any one of a Brexit deal, no deal or no Brexit,” BNP Paribas (PA:) said.” “But an extension of Article 50 and a possible referendum now look more likely than before.”

fell 0.29% to $ 1.2527, while fell 0.29% to $ 1.1323.

rose 0.11% to C$ 1.3424 as gains in the pair were limited by a rising oil prices, underpinning the loonie somewhat.

fell 0.06% to Y113.28.

— Reuters contributed to this report.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

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