Eurozone July retail sales -0.6% vs -0.6% m/m expected

Latest data released by Eurostat – 4 September 2019

  • Prior +1.1%; revised to +1.2%
  • Retail sales +2.2% vs +2.0% y/y expected
  • Prior +2.6%; revised to +2.8%
ForexLive

The monthly drop here is largely affected by the steep decline in German consumption activity, which owed to a notable drop in clothing sales. If anything else, it still suggests that domestic demand in the euro area isn’t exactly as robust as one would think.

That should help to put a lid on any major optimism surrounding a turnaround in growth estimates for Q3 in the region.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forexlive RSS Breaking news feed

US new home sales for July 635K versus 647K estimate

US new home sales for the month of July 2019

  • prior month report
  • New home sales 635K versus 647K estimate 
  • Prior month 646K revised to 728K
  • MoM -12.8%. Last month gain revised up to +20.9% from +7.0%

Big revision to the prior month, but current annualized sales rate lower than expectations. 

US new home sales

ForexLive

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forexlive RSS Breaking news feed

Switzerland July foreign currency reserves CHF 767.9 billion vs CHF 759.1 billion prior

Latest data released by the SNB – 7 August 2019

ForexLive

Slight delay in the release by the source. A decent increase in foreign reserves but nothing out of the ordinary from recent levels thus far. Let’s see how the data progresses in the next couple of months before drawing any firm conclusions of potential SNB intervention.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forexlive RSS Breaking news feed

Lloyds July business barometer 13 versus 13 last month

Lloyds business barometer for July 2019

Lloyds business barometer for July unchanged at 13
  • Business barometer comes in at 13. That is unchanged from June’s report
  • business activity next 12 months 19 versus 22 last month
  • current economic optimism six versus five last month
  • the low for the calendar  year was at 4in February. That was the lowest level since December 2011. 
  • the high for the calendar year in January. The high level for 2018 reached 35 in January and again in May.

As per Lloyds Bank, the business parameter results provide early signals about UK economic trends. 

The surveys completed around the middle of each month. Participants are asked a series of key questions with the answer being increase/improvement, no change, or decrease/worsening.

The balance between increase/improvement and decrease/worsening responses is used to provide the summary headline indicator for each question.

The sample size is over 200 companies with turnover of GBP 1 million and upwards.
ForexLive

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forexlive RSS Breaking news feed

China Caixin manufacturing PMI for July 49.9 vs 49.6 estimate

HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.

ADVISORY WARNING: FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect’s individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FOREXLIVE™ specifically advises clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. FOREXLIVE™ expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits without limitation which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. As with all such advisory services, past results are never a guarantee of future results.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forexlive RSS Breaking news feed

Trade ideas thread – European session 22 July 2019

Daily thread to exchange ideas and to share your thoughts

Happy Monday, everyone! Hope you’re all doing well as we get things going here on the session. It’s been a quiet one to start the week with only minor movements seen across major currencies so far.

The yen and franc are a little weaker while the dollar is holding steady for the most part as market focus shifts to major central bank decisions over the next two weeks. Oil is a decent mover on the day though, up by more than 1% on the back of Middle East tensions still involving Iran and the UK.

Other than that, markets are looking more subdued as traders and investors will have little else to do but wait until we clear central bank hurdles to come before committing to any firm trading decisions as we look to close out the month.

What are your views on the market right now? Share your thoughts/ideas with the ForexLive community here.
ForexLive

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forexlive RSS Breaking news feed

More poor South Korean data – preliminary data for July show exports plunge

South Korean July 1-20 exports (data via the Customs agency, Reuters)  

  •  -13.6 % y/y

July 1-20 imports

  •  -10.3 % y/y

Semiconductor exports -30.2% y/y 

‘Canary in the coalmine’ is often how the performance of SK is viewed. If these are anything to go by its an ex-canary. There will be impact in these from Japan’s move on curbing exporting technology products to the country. 

ForexLive

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forexlive RSS Breaking news feed

Forex – Weekly Outlook: July 22 – 26

© Reuters.  © Reuters.

Investing.com – This week the European Central Bank’s policy meeting will be closely watched as investors wait to see what steps Mario Draghi may take to support the euro area economy.

The week will also bring fresh insights into the global economic outlook, with manufacturing data for Japan, the euro zone and the U.S., due Wednesday. The calendar will also feature a first look at how the U.S. economy performed in the second quarter.

In the UK, a new prime minister should be in place by the end of the week, as concerns over the prospect of a no-deal Brexit continue to build.

The U.S. dollar rose on Friday as fears of a larger-than-expected 50-basis-point interest rate cut in July abated after the New York Federal Reserve walked back dovish comments from its president the prior day.

At a conference on Thursday, New York Fed President John Williams argued for pre-emptive measures to avoid having to deal with too-low inflation and interest rates.

The dollar dropped before rebounding after a New York Fed representative subsequently said Williams’ comments were not about immediate policy direction.

The , which hit a two-week low of 96.648 on Thursday, was 0.38% higher at 97.81.

The fell against the rebounding dollar on Friday as investors ramped up bets for a European Central Bank interest rate cut.

Not all analysts were convinced. Marvin Loh, senior global macro strategist at State Street Global Markets, said he believed the ECB would wait to cut rates until the Fed had done so. What’s more, he noted, the bank may wait on making any significant changes in policy until incoming ECB chief Christine Lagarde has been installed.

The euro was 0.47% lower at 1.122.

The hovered around 1.25 on Friday after its biggest daily jump in more than two months in the previous session, though traders were still focused on the growing risks of a no-deal Brexit.

Investors had dumped the pound earlier this week, sending sterling to a 27-month low against the dollar and a six-month low versus the euro, before recovering some of those losses on Thursday.

, Investing.com has compiled a list of significant events likely to affect the markets.

Tuesday, July 23

U.S. Existing Home Sales (Jun)

Wednesday, July 24

Japan Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

US Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

U.S. Services PMI (Jul)

U.S. New Home Sales (Jun)

Thursday, July 25

U.S. Durable Goods Orders (Jun)

U.S. Trade Balance (Jun)

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

German Ifo Business Climate

ECB rate setting meeting

Friday, July 26

U.S. advance GDP

–Reuters contributed to this report

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forex News

Bond Traders Locked In for July Seek Answers About Rest of 2019

© Reuters.  Bond Traders Locked In for July Seek Answers About Rest of 2019 © Reuters. Bond Traders Locked In for July Seek Answers About Rest of 2019

(Bloomberg) — Bond traders appear certain that the Federal Reserve is on the brink of its first rate cut since 2008. The biggest question, as the market girds for a barrage of speeches by policy makers, is what comes next.

Chairman Jerome Powell last week opened the door to a July cut, stressing a cooling global economy and trade friction as drivers. That leaves investors monitoring U.S. retail sales figures this week and the latest economic data out of Europe and Asia to fine-tune wagers on the extent of cuts for the rest of 2019.

Futures imply a quarter-point July Fed cut and a total of almost 70 basis points of easing for all of 2019. Last week showed how shifting expectations for the Fed’s path amid thin summer trading can jolt markets: The yield curve from 2 to 10 years steepened the most since October as rate-cut bets gained momentum while June inflation data beat forecasts.

“Global growth and domestic inflation is really the key for the Fed now,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, a senior U.S. rates strategist at TD Securities. “There’s a very low bar for the Fed to cut once or twice, but there’s a lot of possible permutations after that.”

This week is the last chance for policy makers to sway the market before the Fed’s standard quiet period begins in the lead-up to its July 30-31 meeting. Powell speaks in Paris, and New York Fed President John Williams (NYSE:) is among others scheduled to appear.

Steeper Curve

The prospect of imminent Fed easing and reports showing above-forecast U.S. inflation drove the curve steeper last week. The gap between two- and 10-year notes expanded about 10 basis points, to 27, back toward the year’s peak levels. Two-year yields fell to 1.85%, while 10-year rates rose to 2.12%.

TD predicts further steepening in the next three to six months. It forecasts quarter-point cuts in July, September and October, followed by 75 basis points of reductions in 2020.

There’s another reason to expect longer maturities to lag: Auctions last week showed investors starting to balk at yields near the lowest this year as the Fed signals it’s preparing to add stimulus.

“Front-end yields can’t really rise given a July cut is baked in the cake,” said John Briggs, head of Americas strategy at NatWest. “But given positioning and the recently poor 30-year auction, we could see more selling pressure in the long-end that causes more steepening.”

The 10-year yield may rise this week to the next support level, at about 2.2%, he said. NatWest forecasts quarter-point cuts in July and September and then for the Fed to stand pat.

It’s not all about the Fed this week. Traders are also assessing the looming risk around the nation’s debt limit, after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin warned that the government may run out of cash in early September if Congress doesn’t raise the U.S. borrowing authority.

Investors are signaling concern. Treasury bills maturing around mid-September through early October yield more than later maturities as buyers avoid securities that could be at risk of non-payment if Congress doesn’t lift or suspend the debt cap.

What to Watch

  • Powell’s appearance and June retail sales are among the week’s highlights. Here’s the economic calendar:
    • July 15: Empire manufacturing
    • July 16: Import/export prices; retail sales; industrial production; NAHB housing; business inventories; Treasury International Capital flows
    • July 17: MBA mortgage applications; housing starts; building permits; Fed Beige Book
    • July 18: Philadelphia Fed business outlook; jobless claims; Bloomberg consumer comfort; leading index
    • July 19: University of Michigan sentiment
  • It’s a busy week for Fed speakers:
    • July 15: New York Fed’s Williams speaks at a Libor briefing
    • July 16: Atlanta Fed’s Raphael Bostic; Fed Governor Michelle Bowman; Dallas Fed’s Robert Kaplan; Powell at Bank of France dinner; Chicago Fed’s Charles Evans
    • July 18: Bostic again, and Williams on monetary policy
    • July 19: St. Louis Fed’s James Bullard; Boston Fed’s Eric Rosengren
  • It’s a week of bills and TIPS auctions:
    • July 15: $ 36 billion of 3-month bills; $ 36 billion of 6-month bills
    • July 16: $ 26 billion 52-week bills
    • July 18: 4-, 8-week bills; 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forex News

US nonfarm payroll data due 1230GMT on July 5 2019 – preview

The headline for the June NFP is at median consensus of +160K, after the previous in May at +75K.

for the unemployment rate

  • expected 3.6%, prior 3.6%

Average hourly earnings

  • expected 0.3% m/m, prior 0.2%
  • expected 3.2%, prior 3.1% 

Average weekly hours worked expected unchanged on the month at 34.4

Earlier previews are here:

This now via Westpac from a Friday note, in brief:
  • anticipated to bounce back after a soft read in May (+75k in the month and the previous level revised down by 75k). Consensus for Jun is for a 160k increase in employment with the unemployment rate holding at 3.6%. 
  • The trend lower in average hourly earnings is seen to stabilise, edging up to 3.2%yr from 3.1%yr in May

ForexLive

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forexlive RSS Breaking news feed