US stocks poised to tick lower at the day

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Australia stocks lower at close of trade; S&P/ASX 200 down 0.38%

© Reuters.  Australia stocks lower at close of trade; S&P/ASX 200 down 0.38% © Reuters. Australia stocks lower at close of trade; S&P/ASX 200 down 0.38%

Investing.com – Australia stocks were lower after the close on Monday, as losses in the , and sectors led shares lower.

At the close in Sydney, the fell 0.38%.

The best performers of the session on the were Speedcast International Ltd (ASX:), which rose 23.87% or 0.185 points to trade at 0.960 at the close. Meanwhile, Western Areas Ltd (ASX:) added 14.11% or 0.350 points to end at 2.830 and Independence Group NL (ASX:) was up 9.56% or 0.520 points to 5.960 in late trade.

The worst performers of the session were Nearmap Ltd (ASX:), which fell 6.59% or 0.180 points to trade at 2.550 at the close. Incitec Pivot Ltd (ASX:) declined 6.23% or 0.200 points to end at 3.010 and Service Stream Ltd (ASX:) was down 4.18% or 0.120 points to 2.750.

Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones on the Sydney Stock Exchange by 698 to 552 and 363 ended unchanged.

Shares in Western Areas Ltd (ASX:) rose to 52-week highs; up 14.11% or 0.350 to 2.830. Shares in Incitec Pivot Ltd (ASX:) fell to 52-week lows; falling 6.23% or 0.200 to 3.010. Shares in Independence Group NL (ASX:) rose to 3-years highs; gaining 9.56% or 0.520 to 5.960.

The , which measures the implied volatility of S&P/ASX 200 options, was up 0.05% to 14.359.

Gold Futures for December delivery was up 0.12% or 1.85 to $ 1531.25 a troy ounce. Elsewhere in commodities trading, Crude oil for delivery in October fell 0.02% or 0.01 to hit $ 55.09 a barrel, while the November Brent oil contract fell 0.27% or 0.16 to trade at $ 59.09 a barrel.

AUD/USD was down 0.07% to 0.6732, while AUD/JPY rose 0.05% to 71.47.

The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.08% at 98.780.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

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EUR/USD likely to edge lower in coming weeks – SocGen

SocGen on the euro

Societe Generale Research flags a scope for EUR/USD and GBP/JPY to edge lower lower over the coming weeks.

“We don’t think the market is short enough of euros to prevent yet another new, marginal low in this move and it’s worth re-emphasising that thanks to the weakness of the yuan and sterling this summer, the trade-weighted euro is reached its best level of the year a week ago.

Given recent economic data and likely ECB moves, it seems likely, in fact,that we will see EUR/USD edge lower in the weeks ahead, unless we get clear signals of further Fed easing or clear signals of European fiscal easing. And if we get the former, we w much rather be long the yen than the euro, thanks,” SocGen notes. 

“More Brexit noise is likely too as Europe ‘responds’ to PM Johnson’s demands. GBP/JPY looks more likely to fall to 125 than rise to 130,” SocGen adds.

For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus.

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AUD lower: Australian flash PMIs key take away is on the employment market

The PMIs slowed a little in July, data is here ICYMI:

Still expanding, just more slowly.

  • Softer new order growth
  • a reduction in new export orders … manufacturers posting a decline for the third time in the past four months
  • slower rise in new orders
  • softer accumulation of backlogs of work
  • Outstanding business increased at the weakest pace in five months … manufacturers posted a decrease for the third time since April

And, this, bolding mine:

  • Employment decreased for the first time since April, and to the greatest extent since the survey began in May 2016. The overall reduction was centred on the service sector, while manufacturers continued to see job creation. 

ICYMI, the RBA is focused on the jobs market, wanting to see unemployment around 4.5% from its current 5.2% The Bank lowered its cash rate in June and again in July in effort to drive this forward. 

The employment indication in this report from CBA/Markit, while mixed (services down, manufacturing up) will be  a nigle for the RBA. Fowrad indicators for the labour market have turned for the worse. 

AUD lower:

The PMIs slowed a little in July, data is here ICYMI:

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Forex – Dollar Slightly Lower in Cautious Trade, Sterling Steadies

© Reuters.  © Reuters.

Investing.com – The U.S. dollar was slightly weaker against a currency basket on Thursday as lower U.S. yields and a recovery in the British pound weighed.

The versus a basket of six major currencies dipped to 96.76 by 02:49 AM ET (06:49 GMT) after shedding 0.2% on Wednesday.

The index had climbed to a one-week high of 97.44 on Wednesday on stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales and a slump in sterling. But it reversed course as Treasury yields fell following weak U.S. housing market data.

Concerns over the ongoing U.S.-China trade war also weighed after the Wall Street Journal reported that progress toward a deal had stalled.

“The dollar basically handed back earlier gains as Treasury yields pulled back and on IMF comments, and came back to where it was a few days ago,” said Takuya Kanda, general manager at Gaitame.Com Research Institute.

Various economic data have given conflicting signs regarding the state of the U.S. economy, but that does not change the bigger picture of the dollar facing downward pressure due to an impending rate cut by the Federal Reserve, Kanda said.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday said the greenback was overvalued by 6% to 12%, based on near-term economic fundamentals.

The Fed is to cut interest rates by 0.25% at its July meeting, with some in the market pricing in a larger 0.5% rate cut.

The was almost unchanged at 1.2432. It hit a low of 1.2382 in the previous day, its weakest level since April 2017 amid growing fears over the prospect of a no-deal Brexit, before selling abated.

The was a touch higher at 1.1234 after edging up 0.1% on Wednesday. The single currency’s gains were modest as it was restrained by expectations of easing from the European Central Bank as early as next week.

The dollar was weaker against the , down 0.3% to 107.71 following an overnight loss of 0.3%.

The hovered near a three-month peak of 0.6745 scaled overnight. The kiwi has gained more than 0.5% this week, supported by positive domestic factors such as strong inflation.

The was up 0.36% at 0.7032 after ending the previous day little changed. Data overnight showed that Australian full-time employment surged in June, but the unemployment rate stayed stuck at 5.2% for a third straight month.

The data reinforced the view that labor market conditions have eased, underlining expectations for further rate cuts by the country’s central bank later this year.

–Reuters contributed to this report

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

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Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Dollar moves lower as Fed speak this week sinks in. PS All time high closes in US stocks

Forex news for NY trading on July 12, 2019.

In other markets: 

  • Spot gold is trading up $ 11.36 or 0.80% at $ 1414.96.  The yelllow metal was helped by a lower USD. Technically, the price at the session lows,  stalled near the 100 hour MA support level, giving the buyers more confidence (and forcing the sellers to buy). See technical post here.
  • WTI crude oil future are trading at $ 60.26, up $ .06 or 0.10%. The high today reached $ 60.74. The low extended to $ 59.93. For the week, the price was up over 4.5% helped by a much larger than expected drawdown of inventories on Wednesday.  For a technical look at the pair CLICK HERE.
  • The price of Bitcoin is trading up $ 447 at $ 11600 despite negative comments on cryptocurrencies from Pres. Trump.
Forex news for NY trading on July 12, 2019.
The major stock indices moved to new record highs just ahead of what is the start of the earnings calendar on Monday.    Moreover the S&P index closed above the 3000 level, after toying with the level on Wednesday and Thursday.  European shares closed mixed with the German Dax and UK FTSE down marginally. 
The US indices closed at the highs for the day and at all time highs heading into the start of the earnings calendar next week. After two days of loads of Fedspeak that did not stop the market from expecting a Fed cut in July, today was a “digest the words” type of day.  That feeling, led to a slightly softer tone for the dollar despite higher than expected PPI. 

However, when Fed’s Evan’s (a new voice this week) started chirping in Chicago, the dollar started to take on an even weaker tone.   Comments included:

  • Business investment weaker than expected
  • Sees growth for 2019 around 2% which is close to what he regards as sustainable trend
  • Business investment has been weaker despite fiscal aid
  • Nervous about under running inflation objective
  • Policy is currently about neutral but could be more accommodated if the aim was to lift inflation
  • A couple of rate cuts could lift inflation by 2021
  • Framework is adequate as long as policymakers are going to actively push for inflation of 2% to assure target is met symmetrically
  • Hard for businesses to make long-term plans given uncertainty around trade landscape
  • Slowing foreign growth is going to dampen the US economy
  • Rsk management approach means being a little more accommodative in case downside risks materialize, but we don’t want to go too far
  • Now am more concerned policy isn’t on  accommodative side
  • Takes seriously the current rates may be more restrictive than should be
  • Could argue for rate cuts on inflation, global slowdown

He seemed to get more and more dovish as he went along.

Overall, the votes are there for a rate cut in July and if Charlie Evans, Vice Chair Williams, Chair Powell, Thomas Barkin, et. al. take the chatter from this week into the meeting at the end of the month, the bias may shift even more to the dovish side for other meetings this year.  

Below is a snapshot the rankings of the strongest and weakest currencies. The AUD is ending as the strongest on risk on sentiment, the USD is the weakest. 

The USD is the weakest of the major currencies.

In the US debt market, yields are ending the session lower, but  off the day’s lowest levels.

The US yields are ending lower
Some technical views/thoughts going into the weekend:
EURUSD: The EURUSD traded up. It traded down. It traded up again and is closing near the day highs. In between the high at 1.12744 and the low at 1.1237 sits the 100 day MA and 200 hour MA at 1.1253. In the NY session,dollar selling in the NY afternoon, took the price back above that bullish above/bearish below barometer. In next week’s trading, the levels will remain
key for the technical bias.   For the week, the low for the week was reached on Tuesday at 1.11927. The high was on Thursday at 1.1285.  The 38.2% of the move down from the June 18 high comes in at 1.1276. A move above that level would be more bullish in the new week.

USDJPY: The USDJPY fell below a neckline level at 107.93, and the 100 bar MA on 4-hour (at 107.956) and 50% retracement of the move up from June 18 on Friday (at 107.878). That area will be close resistance in the new trading week.  Next week on more selling, the 107.53-57 will be a key swing area from June 18 and July 3rd to get below.  If the 108.00 is breached above, the 200 hour MA and 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart will be a key upside target.  

USDCHF: This is another currency pair that breached a neckline on the hourly chart (see post here), but has other support levels to get below in order to solicit more selling. Those levels include the 100 bar MA on 4-hour at 0.98377 a swing levels from July 2, and July 3rd at 0.9831-35.  Get below in the NY week and there should be more downside momentum.

AUDUSD: The AUD is the strongest of the major currencies today. In the process, the pair based against the 200 hour MA at 0.6984 , moved above a swing area at 0.7012-16 and breached the 100 day MA at 0.70209. The pair did stall near that 100 day MA, leaving the “higher?” or “lower?” decision for next week’s trading.   On more upside, the 0.7047 is the July high  and the highest level since May 1.

USDCAD: The USDCAD was pushed lower on more bearish USD flows, and higher oil in the second half of the week. The pair is closing at the lowest level of the year, and lowest level since October 2018 (trading at 1.3032). A move below the 1.3000 level opens the pair for a shot at the 100 week MA at 1.2980.  

My fingers are tired and I must have lost finger weight from all the typing exercise without Adam this week (and all the Fed speak and other events). I will return part of the favor on Monday and Tuesday (family in town), but look forward to my return on Wednesday.  Thank you for all your support this week and wishing you all a great and safe weekend. 

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Forex – Dollar Drifts Lower, but Surges vs Turkish Lira

© Reuters.  © Reuters.

Investing.com — The dollar was slightly lower in early morning trading in Europe, but holding on to most of the gains it posted after Friday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. employment report forced a rethink on the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate path.

The greenback’s biggest move was against the , rising nearly 2.5% after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan removed central bank governor at the weekend. Erdogan’s decision revived concerns about the safety of the lira, given his previous pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates despite an annual inflation rate that was still over 15% in June.

More broadly, the dismissal of Cetinkaya is an illustration of the political pressure on central banks across the world as the economy slows under the influence of trade disputes between the U.S. and its biggest trading partners. Another illustration of that trend will come on Wednesday and Thursday when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell before Congress.

As of 3:45 AM ET (0745 GMT), the was at $ 1.1229, effectively unchanged from Friday’s close in Europe. The single currency remained under pressure after data for May came out weaker than expected – although the number was nowhere near as shocking as the bigger drop in reported on Friday. Elsewhere, the French central bank cut its estimate for second-quarter growth in France to 0.2% from 0.3%, citing a slowdown in manufacturing. France has been a relative bright spot in the Eurozone economy this year, as consumer demand has held up thanks to President Emmanuel Macron’s concessions to the “yellow vest” protest movement.

The was also still struggling at $ 1.2523, as it emerged that , who has vowed to take the U.K. out of the EU on Oct. 31 even without transitional arrangements to mitigate the shock, appears to be on course for a clear victory in the Conservative Party leadership contest.

The , which measures the greenback against a basked of developed-market currencies, was at 96.82, down a touch from late Friday.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

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Dow lags and closes lower (thanks to Boeing). S&P and Nasdaq close higher

S&P first gain in 5 days

The US major indices are now closed with mixed results.

The Dow lagged once again, and you can blame Boeing for it’s woes (sans Boeing the index would have been higher).  The S&P had it’s first up day in the last 5. Nasdaq stocks led the way higher.

The final numbers are showing:

  • Dow, down -10.24 points or -0.04% at 26526.58
  • S&P, up 11.14 points or 0.38% at 2924.92
  • Nasdaq, up 57.787 points or 0.73% at 7967.758.

Winners:

  • First Solar, +4.63%
  • Chewy, +3.17%
  • micron, +2.78%
  • AMD, +2.74%
  • Nvidia, + 2.49%
  • Netflix, +2.16%
  • General Mills, +1.7%
  • Tesla, +1.63%
  • Adobe, +1.56%
  • Broadcom, +1.52%

Losers:

  • Boeing, -2.94%
  • Slack, -2.53%
  • Cisco, -1.54%
  • Intel, -1.51%
  • Twitter, -1.36%
  • Disney, -0.80%
  • Alphabetic, -0.34%

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Norway stocks lower at close of trade; Oslo OBX down 0.93%

© Reuters.  Norway stocks lower at close of trade; Oslo OBX down 0.93% © Reuters. Norway stocks lower at close of trade; Oslo OBX down 0.93%

Investing.com – Norway stocks were lower after the close on Tuesday, as losses in the , and sectors led shares lower.

At the close in Oslo, the declined 0.93%.

The best performers of the session on the were Nel ASA (OL:), which rose 1.92% or 0.110 points to trade at 5.840 at the close. Meanwhile, Yara International ASA (OL:) added 1.56% or 6.4 points to end at 416.4 and SalMar ASA (OL:) was up 0.89% or 3.20 points to 364.40 in late trade.

The worst performers of the session were BW Offshore Ltd (OL:), which fell 3.55% or 1.900 points to trade at 51.600 at the close. TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA (OL:) declined 3.20% or 7.7 points to end at 232.9 and Petroleum Geo – Services ASA (OL:) was down 3.00% or 0.40 points to 12.93.

Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones on the Oslo Stock Exchange by 141 to 70 and 28 ended unchanged.

Shares in Yara International ASA (OL:) rose to 3-years highs; rising 1.56% or 6.4 to 416.4.

Crude oil for August delivery was up 0.31% or 0.18 to $ 58.08 a barrel. Elsewhere in commodities trading, Brent oil for delivery in September rose 0.47% or 0.30 to hit $ 64.48 a barrel, while the August Gold Futures contract rose 0.38% or 5.35 to trade at $ 1423.55 a troy ounce.

EUR/NOK was up 0.49% to 9.7118, while USD/NOK rose 0.85% to 8.5513.

The US Dollar Index Futures was up 0.31% at 95.787.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

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U.S. stocks lower at close of trade; Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.13%

© Reuters.  U.S. stocks lower at close of trade; Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.13% © Reuters. U.S. stocks lower at close of trade; Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.13%

Investing.com – U.S. stocks were lower after the close on Friday, as losses in the , and sectors led shares lower.

At the close in NYSE, the fell 0.13%, while the index lost 0.13%, and the index declined 0.24%.

The best performers of the session on the were UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:), which rose 1.83% or 4.53 points to trade at 252.29 at the close. Meanwhile, Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:) added 1.39% or 1.06 points to end at 77.67 and Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE:) was up 0.78% or 0.45 points to 57.79 in late trade.

The worst performers of the session were Walt Disney Company (NYSE:), which fell 1.24% or 1.76 points to trade at 140.26 at the close. Dow Inc (NYSE:) declined 1.15% or 0.56 points to end at 48.37 and United Technologies Corporation (NYSE:) was down 0.98% or 1.27 points to 128.76.

The top performers on the S&P 500 were Humana Inc (NYSE:) which rose 4.47% to 270.39, Baker Hughes A Ge Company LLC (NYSE:) which was up 3.41% to settle at 25.19 and CarMax Inc (NYSE:) which gained 3.13% to close at 85.60.

The worst performers were Carnival Corporation (NYSE:) which was down 4.51% to 46.60 in late trade, Altria Group (NYSE:) which lost 4.50% to settle at 48.00 and Sealed Air Corporation (NYSE:) which was down 4.44% to 41.73 at the close.

The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Legacy Reserves Inc (NASDAQ:) which rose 59.77% to 0.0850, Aspen Group Inc (NASDAQ:) which was up 25.93% to settle at 5.1000 and China SXT Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:) which gained 24.36% to close at 4.3400.

The worst performers were Akerna Corp (NASDAQ:) which was down 25.99% to 27.05 in late trade, VERB TECHNOLOGY COMPANY INC (NASDAQ:) which lost 18.33% to settle at 1.960 and Stellar Biotechnologies Inc (NASDAQ:) which was down 18.11% to 6.060 at the close.

Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones on the New York Stock Exchange by 1830 to 1188 and 23 ended unchanged; on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange, 1591 fell and 1056 advanced, while 108 ended unchanged.

Shares in CarMax Inc (NYSE:) rose to all time highs; rising 3.13% or 2.60 to 85.60.

The , which measures the implied volatility of S&P 500 options, was up 4.41% to 15.40.

Gold Futures for August delivery was up 0.45% or 6.30 to $ 1403.20 a troy ounce. Elsewhere in commodities trading, Crude oil for delivery in August rose 0.91% or 0.52 to hit $ 57.59 a barrel, while the August Brent oil contract rose 1.33% or 0.86 to trade at $ 65.31 a barrel.

EUR/USD was up 0.68% to 1.1368, while USD/JPY rose 0.02% to 107.31.

The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.46% at 95.692.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

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