ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: Dollar strengthens again, housing starts jump

Forex news for New York trade on January 17, 2020:

Markets:

  • Gold up $ 4 to $ 1557
  • WTI crude up 22-cents to $ 58.74
  • S&P 500 up 13 points to record 3329
  • US 10-year yields up 1.5 bps to 1.82%
  • USD & JPY lead, GBP lags

The big surprise of the day was the 16% jump in US housing starts in the third month in a row of good gains. Some pointed to unusually warm weather but lower mortgage rates are undoubtedly part of the equation and the data gave another reason for USD bulls to cheer.

The impact was broad based but not in the yen, which was curious because the risk trade continue to improve. Both the AUD and NZD ended at the lowest levels of the day with CAD not far off.

The laggard was the pound after a dismal retail sales report pushed the odds of a BOE hike this month up to 73%. The pound finished down 64 pips and more than 110 pips off the high, which came moments before the data.

Have a great weekend!

Forex news for New York trade on January 17, 2020:

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ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: AUD finds a footing

Forex news for New York trading on January 10, 2020:

Markets:

  • Gold up $ 8 to $ 1651
  • WTI crude oil down 36-cents to $ 59.20
  • US 10-year yields down 4 bps to 1.82%
  • S&P 500 down 9 points to 3265
  • AUD leads, GBP lags

The soft wage growth in the non-farm payrolls report led to an initial 20-pip fall in the US dollar but within 30 minutes it was erased on most fronts.

The more-lasting move was in AUD/USD as it made a steady climb back to 0.6903, just above the 200-day moving average after falling below int on Wednesday. The 45-pip gain in the pair was the only significant move on the day.

USD/JPY initially fell on the jobs report then recovered only to fall back later, slipping to 109.50 from a high of 109.69. The weakness came as stocks and Treasury yields slid lower late.

USD/CAD was interesting as the Canadian jobs report beat estimates and capped Canada’s best year for employment since 2007. The pair initially fell to 1.3031 but tracked back up nearly to pre-report levels at 1.3056 on the combination of risk aversion and fresh worries about the wide gap ($ 24) between Canadian and US oil.

Gold was an interesting trade as was flat in Asia and early Europe but got a bid late to finish up $ 10, which closing at the best levels of the day and with a close above the September highs. It was the best weekly close since 2013.

Have a great weekend and thanks for making it such a great week.

Forex news for New York trading on January 10, 2020:

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ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: ISM manufacturing falls to lowest since 2009

Forex news for North American trade on January 3, 2020:

Markets:

  • Gold up $ 20 to $ 1549
  • WTI crude up $ 1.81 to $ 62.99
  • US 10-year yields down 9 bps to 1.78%
  • S&P 500 down 23 points to 3234
  • JPY leads, GBP lags

Surprise was the word of the day as risk trades dumped in Asia on the surprise attack on Iran’s top military official. In US trade the US dollar was generally softer as the euro bounced back to 1.1175 from a low of 1.1125 just before New York’s arrival and as USD/JPY shed another 50 pips.

USD/JPY hit the lows of the day after the surprise drop in the ISM manufacturing survey. The commentary in the report was more balanced but the headline hit the worst level in a decade, raising big questions about any manufacturing recovery this year.

Cable remained in the doldrums and gave up another 70 pips. Notably, GBP/JPY sits right at the post-election lows.

Late in the day rumors started doing the rounds of an Iran response to the US assassinations but despite some tweeting from a NYT reporter, the news was false. Before it was debunked, gold touched above $ $ 1550 and crude oil bounced. Interestingly, crude was able to hold much of the gains.

Commodity currencies were weak with the Aussie and kiwi significantly underperforming the loonie, which was buffeted by oil. However AUD and NZD both bottomed before New York trade and recouped about 20 pips over the course of the day.

Have a great weekend!

Forex news for North American trade on January 3, 2020:

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1/2/20: CBSN Evening News

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Forexlive Americas news wrap: And it’s a wrap for the year too.

Forex news for NY trading on December 31, 2019

In other markets:

  • Spot gold is trading up $ 2.18 or 0.14% at $ 1517.34.  For the year the preciious metal rose 18.3% after ending the year 2018 at $ 1282.49
  • WTI crude oil futures are trading at $ 61.16. For the year crude oil had a NASDAQ type year with a 34.6% gain

The US stocks today closed with gains and finished their impressive year on a high note. For the day, the NASDAQ led the charge with the 0.3% gain, with the S&P and the Dow on the heals at 0.27% and 0.29%.   European shares did not have agree today.  Below are the percentage changes for the major European and North American indices:

The percentage changes of the US and European stock indicesFor the year, the NASDAQ index led the global indices with a 35.23% gain. The S&P index at the next largest gain at 28.88% and the Italy’s FTSE MIB rose by 28.28%. Below are the percentage changes of the major Asian Pacific, European, and North American indices for the year.
Year to date global stock market changes

In the forex market today, the GBP is ending as the runaway strongest currency of the day. The USD and the NZD are the weakest. 

The GBP is the strongest and the USD and NZD are the weakest today

In the US debt market today the holiday shortened day ended with yields moving higher and the yield curve steepening. The 2 year is up only 0.4 basis points, but the 10 year is up 3.9 basis points and the 30 year is up 6.0 basis points.

US yields are higher For the year:
  • The 2 year yield ended at the end of 2018 at 2.4878% . It close today at 1.5691% a decline 91.87 basis points
  • The 10 year yield closed 2018 at 2.6842% and 2019 at 1.9175%. That is a decline of 76.67 basis points
  • The 30 year yield close 2018 at 3.0145% and 2019 at 2.3896%. That is a decline of 62.5 basis points.

Wishing you all a happy new year.  Good fortune with your trading in 2020 and thank you for all your support this year. 

Peace.  Joy. Good fortune. 

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ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: Holiday mood in Asia

Forex news for Asia trading Monday 23 December 2019 

Just the headlines today ladies and gentlemen. The next two weeks will be a bit light in the markets, with many participants, both institutional and retail, taking a break. Trading will be thinned out. Today markets were open but movement was minimal across FX. 

Over the weekend we got some thoughts on the phase one trade deal from US President Trump and not a lot else:

Monday’s Asia-session news and data flow was also sparse:

Forex news for Asia trading Monday 23 December 2019 UK PM Johnson and US President Trump will meet early in the new year when BJ visits Washington. 

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Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Canada retail sales disappoint

Forex news for NY trading on December 20, 2019

In other markets:

  • Spot gold is down $ 0.55 -0.04% to $ 1478.27
  • WTI crude oil futures trading down $ 0.83 or -1.36% at $ 60.35. Remained above the $ 60 level for the week. Today the Baker Hughes rig count showed a pretty healthy rise of 17 rigs for the current week. Perhaps the $ 60 barrel level is allowing for some little rigs to be restarted profitably.

In the US stock market today, it seems cliché but the major indices all closed at record levels and reached new all time intraday levels as well. 

The S&P index led the way with a gain of 0.49%.  The S&P index has risen for 4 consecutive weeks.  The NASDAQ index rose by 0.42%. The NASDAQ index has risen for a consecutive days. 

The Dow industrial average lagged as Boeing stalled that index  (Boeing, is the largest contributor to the Dow and was lower by -1.65% on the day today) .  

For the week, the NASDAQ led the way with a gain of 2.18%. The S&P index rose by 1.65% and the Dow industrial average rose by 1.14%.

Forex news for NY trading on December 20, 2019_ Fundamentally, probably the biggest event of the day was the Canadian retail sales. It showed a greater than expected decline of -1.2% versus 0.5% estimate for the month of October. 

The USDCAD shot higher rising above its 100 hour moving average at the 1.3140 level on way to a high price of 1.3180.  However, the rest of the day saw the pair chop back and forth, and then move lower into the close.   The pair is trading at 1.3150 and just above its 100 hour moving average at 1.3143.  Buyers in the USDCAD could not keep control and gave up/squared up into the weekend.  

In the US the 3rd cut of 3Q GDP came in as expected 2.1%. No big move off of that data. Later the PCE deflator came in at 1.5% versus 1.4% estimate, while the core deflator came out at 1.6% versus 1.5% estimate. Although higher than expectations for each, the readings are still well below the 2.0% target for the Fed.  Fed officials this week said that they wouldn’t mind seeing inflation running hot, a sentiment expressed by Chair Powell last week.

In the forex market today the AUD was the strongest of the majors, with the EUR the weakest. The US dollar was mostly higher with only declines versus the AUD.  

The major currency pair ranking for the week

For the AUDUSD, the pair moved up to test its 200 day moving average at 0.69029 (the high price reached about 3 pips above that level at 0.6906 before rotating back below the key moving average level. In next week’s trading that 200 day moving average will be a key barometer for the bulls and the bears. Move above and it’s more bullish. Stay/move lower and the rally in the pair this week should see some corrective action to the downside.

The EURUSD in the early London session tried to rally up to test its 200 hour moving average at the 1.1125 area (the high price reached 1.1123). However, when the price could not extend above that moving average level, the sellers entered and pushed the price steadily to the downside. The 1st hurdle in the EURUSD was through the 50% retracement of the move up from the end of November low at the 1.10895. A trendline was broken next at 1.1075, but support buyers did show up near the pairs 100 day moving average at 1.1063. The low price for the day extended down to 1.1066 (close enough). The price is trading at 1.10746 into the close. The 100 day moving average next week will be close barometer for the bulls and bears.

The GBPUSD moved to new session and week lows in the last hour of trading, and to the lowest level since December 3. In the process the price fell below the 200 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart at 1.29923. The low reached 1.29765. The pair did correct toward the 200 bar moving average at the close. Next week that moving average level will be the close barometer for traders. 

For the week, the GBP was the runaway weakest currency of the majors (see ranking of the majors in the charts below).   The strongest were the AUD and the CHF.  The charts below show the percentage changes of the major currencies versus each other for the week.

The strongest and weakest currencies for the week

Next week, the markets will survive on skeleton staffs.   The default is to expect choppy trading in the forex, with narrow trading ranges.  

Of course, the stock markets may not follow that choppy action. On December 24 starts what is called the Santa Claus rally which runs from Christmas Eve to and through the 1st two trading days of the new year. Do we continue to see all time highs being made?  Time will tell.  

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Forex – U.S. Dollar Slips On Impeachment News; AUD Climbs on Jobs Data

© Reuters.  © Reuters.

Investing.com – The U.S. dollar slipped on Thursday in Asia after U.S. House of Representatives voted to impeach Republican U.S. President Donald Trump for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.

Trump is the third president to be impeached in U.S. history but is likely to survive a trial in the GOP-led Senate, which is expected to vote in January.

The U.S. dollar index slipped 0.1% to 96.925 by 11:30 PM ET (03:30 GMT).

On the data front, the National Association of Realtors will report on existing home sales for November tomorrow.

Sales of existing homes are expected to have dropped 0.2% last month to an annual rate of 5.44 million, according to forecasts compiled by Investing.com.

Initial jobless claims is also due. Economists are looking for a drop in claims for first-time unemployment benefits to 225,000.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve will release its manufacturing index for December on the same day. Economists expect the Philly Fed Index to come in at 8 for the month from 10.4 in November. The index tracks manufacturing in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware.

The USD/JPY pair gained 0.1% to 109.57 after the Bank of Japan kept its policy unchanged on Thursday morning. The central bank maintained its forward guidance, saying it expected rates to remain low or lower as long as there was a chance of losing price momentum. The decision was largely in line with expectation.

The Australian dollar climbed 0.3% against the U.S. dollar to reach 0.6875 after data showed the country’s unexpectedly in November declined. Employment jumped 39,900 last month, compared with economists’ estimates of a 15,000 gain, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed Thursday.

The NZD/USD pair also gained 0.1% to 0.6591 after the country’s third quarter came in stronger than expected.

The GBP/USD pair recovered and inched up 0.1% to 1.3082 after falling this week amid renewed concern of a possible no-deal Brexit.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

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ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: Deal announced but details disappoint

Forex news for North American trade on December 13, 2019:

Markets:

  • Gold up $ 6 to $ 1475
  • US 10-year yields down 7 bps to 1.82%
  • S&P 500 float at 3168
  • GBP leads, AUD lags
  • WTI crude oil up 61-cents to $ 59.79

Confusion was the story early in North American trade as yesterday’s reports of a US-China deal were not confirmed by Beijing. The eerie silence ramped up on reports highlighting things that wouldn’t be included and then Trump threw fuel on the fire by saying the 50% rollback on $ 360B in tariffs was wrong.

Eventually Chinese officials said there was a deal and Trump confirmed it. The main detail is that December 15 tariffs will be averted but that tariffs would only be rolled back by 50% on $ 112B of goods. That sparked a sell the fact trade. The risk aversion was more-pronounced in bonds and AUD/USD than in stocks, probably due to year-end effects.

AUD/USD earlier crested above some critical technical levels including the 200-dma but fell back lower to 0.6870 and finished near the lows of the day. NZD fell in step. CAD also slumped early but it was buoyed by a rally in WTI crude above $ 60.

Cable was surprisingly quiet as it consolidating around 1.3335. The range was just 60 pips in New York trade as bids at 1.3300 held firm but buyers were reluctant to take it above 1.3360.

USD/JPY initially fell 30 pips on deal confusion then rallied when a deal was announced only to sag back to fresh lows on the details. In sum, it finished the day virtually unchanged at 109.35.

The euro weakened to 1.1120 as it gave back all the UK vote gains. It’s stuck in a tough spot as a carry trade funder and this is another example of its inability to rally; even on ‘good’ news.

Forex news for North American trade on December 13, 2019:

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