Yuan wobbles on Trump trade comments, details of China rate reforms awaited

HONG KONG (Reuters) – The yuan wavered on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was not ready yet to make a trade with China.

Traders were also cautious ahead of the debut of China’s new benchmark lending rate on Tuesday, which was announced at the weekend.

Analysts believe the reforms will open the door to rate cuts, possibly as early as Tuesday, but are divided over the size of any initial reduction and how much it may help struggling smaller companies in the near term.

Spot yuan traded at 7.0447 per dollar at midday, pretty much unchanged from the last session close and 0.12 percent away weaker than the midpoint , which was set by the People’s Bank of China at 7.0365.

The central bank on Saturday unveiled long-awaited interest rate reforms to help lower borrowing costs for companies and support slowing growth, which has been dragged by its protracted trade war with the United States.

The revamped loan prime rate (LPR), effective on Tuesday and linked to rates in medium-term lending facility (MLF), is the equivalent of a 45 basis point rate cut on loans, ANZ analysts wrote in a note on Monday. Several traders said they expect the new LPR to trim by 10 to 15 basis points.

The tweak will help achieve the State Council’s goal of easing financing costs for small businesses by 1 percentage point, but tax cuts will also shoulder part of that, according to a Shanghai-based trader.

“We need to hear more about the supplementary measures,” to gauge how far LPR and MLF rates will fall, said another trader in Shanghai.

However, unlike more open markets such as the United States, China’s capital control will likely cap the pressure from lower interest rates on its managed currency, said a Hong Kong-based trader, adding “it will trade where the PBOC wants it to be.”

Traders said the U.S.-China trade talks will continue to dominate the yuan’s direction in the near term.

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Sunday trade officials from the two countries would speak within 10 days and a Chinese delegation is flying to the United States to follow up.

But Trump said on the same day he is “not ready” for a deal with Beijing, hinting again that he would like to ongoing protests in Hong Kong resolved first.

Trump also said he would not like to deal with Huawei Technologies Co Ltd – even after Reuters and other media outlets reported on Friday the U.S. Commerce Department is expected to extend a reprieve for the company to buy supplies from U.S. companies.

The was trading 0.14 percent softer than the onshore spot at 7.0545 per dollar.

The global () rose slightly to 98.207 from the previous close of 98.142.

US China interest rate – Aug 19, 2019 – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/12/4892/4849/US%20China%20interest%20rate%20-%20Aug%2019,%202019.jpg

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RBA’s Kent Says Rate Cuts, Currency Drop Are Providing Stimulus

(Bloomberg) — Australia’s back-to-back interest-rate cuts are flowing through the financial system and into the economy, while the falling currency should provide a similar stimulus to sustained declines of previous years, a senior Reserve Bank official said.

“The transmission of monetary policy in Australia to financial conditions is working in the usual way,” Christopher Kent, assistant governor for financial markets, said in Sydney Tuesday. “In particular, the change in the stance of policy has underpinned the decline in risk-free rates along the yield curve. It has also contributed to a decline in the cost of funding in corporate bond markets, supported equity prices, and lowered the cost of funding for banks.”

Kent also said in his speech to the Finance & Treasury Association that much of the reduction in banks’ funding costs has been passed through to business and household borrowers. The cash rate currently stands at 1%, with traders pricing in another quarter-point cut this year and a further one in 2020.

Kent noted that a spike in commodity prices over the past year had impacted the currency less than in the past, due to expectations that the supply-driven gains were likely to be short-lived. He estimated that, in trade-weighted terms, the dollar was down about 7% over the past year; it was trading at 67.57 U.S. cents at 10:52 a.m. in Sydney, near the lowest level since 2009.

Some Support

“Notwithstanding an easier stance of monetary policy globally, the decline in interest rates in Australia has contributed to the depreciation of the Australian dollar,” he said. “That broad-based easing in financial conditions in Australia will provide some additional support to demand in the period ahead.”

Asked after the address whether the currency would deliver the same impetus to the economy as on previous occasions, given changes in the industrial base, Kent was categorical in his response: “Absolutely.”

“Education and tourism benefit just as much through a depreciation in terms of their competitiveness as any other industries which are no longer so prominent,” he said. “So yes I think it’s going to have about the same sort of effect in terms of the stimulus.”

Kent was also asked whether the central bank’s focus was still inflation or perhaps unemployment or even under-employment now. He reiterated the bank’s line that there was more spare capacity in the economy than had been anticipated, as strong hiring had been met by a “substantial increase” in the participation rate.

“We’re certainly not unemployment rate targeters, we still are inflation targeters,” he said. “But it’s a dual mandate, we care about inflation, we care about full employment. We care about the general welfare of the populace.”

(Updates with Q&A currency comments from first paragraph.)

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Forex – Sterling Rebounds as Dollar Flat Ahead of Expected Rate Cut 

© Reuters.  © Reuters.

Investing.com – The pound rebounded slightly on Wednesday after falling to a two-year low, while the U.S. dollar was flat ahead of an expected Federal Reserve rate cut.

A reduction of at least a quarter-point at 2:00 PM ET (18:00 GMT) from the Fed is priced in, with investors focused on Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference a half-hour later for clues on further easing in the light of slowing global growth, notably caused by fallout from the trade conflict with China.

The , which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was flat at 97.838 by 10:18 AM ET (14:18 GMT).

The dollar was unmoved against the Japanese yen, with flat at 108.54.The Bank of Japan left rates steady on Tuesday but could ease monetary policy if global developments drag on the economy.

Sterling recovered, with up 0.5% to 1.2211, in a move that had no obvious triggers but which followed two days of sharp losses that made it ripe for a technical correction.

The pound had fallen to a two-year low of 1.2158 after newly elected Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his new cabinet of die-hard Brexiteers stepped up their rhetoric and their preparations for taking the U.K. out of the European Union by October 31, a timeframe that leaves little or no time to renegotiate a transitional deal to guarantee continued smooth trade between the two.

The currency is expected by many to fall further as Johnson’s plan to leave the EU is widely seen as likely to hurt the U.K. economy. While the Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates steady at its meeting on Thursday, the implied odds of a rate cut later have risen in recent days.

Elsewhere, was down 0.2% to $ 1.1136 after data showed that the euro zone’s gross domestic product grew only 0.2% in the second quarter. The third quarter has also started weakly, with the core consumer price index falling to 0.9% in July, barely half the European Central Bank’s target for headline inflation.

lost 0.2% to 1.3120.

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Forex – U.S. Dollar Rises, Even as Bigger Fed Rate Cut Expected

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Investing.com – The U.S. dollar was higher on Friday, even as expectations rose that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by half a point at the end of the month.

The , which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, gained 0.3% to 96.738 by 10:26 AM ET (14:26 GMT).

U.S. President Donald Trump continued to put pressure on the Fed to cut rates, slamming the central bank via twitter for its “faulty thought process.”

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said Thursday that the central bank needed to “act quickly” when rates were low, as “it’s better to take preventative measures than to wait for disaster to unfold.”

Meanwhile, preliminary data from the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index were about in line with expectations, as Americans became more optimistic about the future.

The index edged up to 98.4 in July from 98.2 in June.

The dollar fell against the Japanese yen, with up 0.4% to 107.64.

Elsewhere, the expectation of the U.S. easing its monetary policy has given emerging market central banks more confidence to cut interest rates without undermining their currencies. Indonesia, South Korea and South Africa all cut their key rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.

Meanwhile, slipped 0.4% to 1.1226, slipped 0.2% to 1.2581, while gained 0.3% to 1.3067.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

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Forex – U.S. Dollar Nears Three-Week Highs as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Fall

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Investing.com – The U.S. dollar rose towards a three-week high on Tuesday as hope dampened that the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy aggressively, while worry over U.S.-China trade tensions hitting corporate profits contributed to an equity sell-off on Wall Street.

The , which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.2% to 97.132 by 10:40 AM ET (14:40 GMT).

An upbeat jobs report on Friday helped the greenback, leading traders to revise their assumptions as to how much the central bank might cut rates.

The Fed opened the door at its last policy meeting for a cut and is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points when it meets at the end of July. Expectations for a 50-basis point cut, however, have fallen to 5% from 25% last week.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is due to appear before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday for his semiannual testimony, and is likely to be questioned about his willingness to ease policy.

The dollar was higher against the Japanese yen, with rising 0.1% to 108.83. The euro fell with down 0.1% to 1.1203 and gained 0.3% to 1.3127. slumped 0.7% to 0.6922, while rose 0.2% to 1,182.51.

Meanwhile hit a six-month low before rebounding a little to trade down 0.3% at $ 1.2496, after U.K. retail sales fell 1.6% from a year earlier in June, adding to indications that the British economy is contracting.

The looming risk of a Hard Brexit, meanwhile, remains a background threat to the pound, given that the two men vying to be Prime Minister have both indicated their willingness to risk that scenario. A final debate between Conservative Party leader candidates Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt is expected later Tuesday.

The Turkish lira stabilized after falling sharply on Monday in the wake of President Tayyip Erdogan’s decision to dismiss the central bank governor. was down 0.4% to 5.7127, but is still up over 1.5% from Friday.

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Dollar regains footing as bets on aggressive U.S. rate cuts fade

By Stanley White

TOKYO (Reuters) – The dollar traded near a three-week high on Tuesday against its peers, as investors reduced bets on aggressive U.S. interest rate cuts ahead of the Federal Reserve chairman’s testimony to Congress on the economy.

Sterling was pinned near a six-month low versus the dollar on speculation the Bank of England will soon join other major central banks in easing monetary policy in response to growing worries about the global economy and Britain’s exit from the European Union.

Fed chief Jerome Powell’s comments in two-day testimony to Congress beginning on Wednesday will be closely watched to determine whether traders will continue to pare bets for deep interest rate cuts, which could help the dollar continue its rebound against major currencies.

“The dollar is bouncing back, so there are some downside risks for the euro and cable,” said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.

“There is a risk the Fed will not be as dovish as people thought. Central banks ahead of the curve in this cycle are Australia and New Zealand. The Fed is following, but the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are laggards.”

The () versus a basket of six major currencies was little changed at 97.374 on Tuesday, which was close to a three-week high of 97.443 hit on Friday.

The greenback was steady at 108.75 yen , near a six-week high of 108.81 yen reached on Monday.

Investors will closely analyze Powell’s comments when he delivers his semi-annual monetary report before Congress to gauge how far the U.S. central bank will lower interest rates.

A sharp rebound in U.S. job growth in June reduced expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points when it meets at the end of July.

A week ago, the market forecast an 80.1% chance of a 25-basis-point cut, and a 19.9% chance of a 50-basis-point cut, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. The chances are now 98% and 2%, respectively.

The British pound was last quoted at $ 1.2515, within striking distance of $ 1.2481, its lowest since the “flash crash” on January 3 when the pound dropped to $ 1.2409.

Data on UK gross domestic product and industrial output are due Wednesday, while the Bank of England will release its financial stability report on Thursday, which could help traders gauge whether the BoE will take a more dovish view of the economy.

The euro () traded at $ 1.1216, near a three-week low of $ 1.1207.

The Turkish lira was steady in early trade in Asia after weakening sharply following President Tayyip Erdogan’s dismissal over the weekend of the central bank governor, sparking worries about the bank’s independence.

The lira at one point slid to a two-week low of 5.8245 to the dollar and was last quoted at 5.7291.

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Forex – Dollar Weakens Further as Market Positions for Rate Cuts

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Investing.com — The dollar continued its decline in early trading in Europe Tuesday, with the yen and euro strengthening as traders anticipate the erosion of the interest rate premium on dollar assets.

Overnight, the dollar fell to a 14-month low of 106.79 against the , before recovering slightly to trade at 106.97 by 3.45 AM ET (0745 GMT). The , which measures the greenback against a basket of developed-market currencies, also hit a three-month low of 95.468 before bouncing to 95.488.

The , meanwhile, hit a three-month high of $ 1.1413 before consolidating just under $ 1.1400, due partly to a weaker-than-expected in France. That follows a day after a similarly gloomy reading from the research institute on German business sentiment.

Caution remains the watchword of the day after Iran responded to U.S. sanctions on its supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei by saying that the diplomatic channel for communications had been “closed forever”. Even so, the largely symbolic sanctions announced on Monday haven’t been enough to trigger any major inflows into safe assets.

There is little incentive for traders to take new positions ahead of the crucial G20 summit at the weekend, where U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping are due to meet. A between the two sides’ chief trade negotiators late Monday yielded no new detail but at least avoided a public breakdown of communication.

The currency market’s focus later Tuesday is likely to be on Federal Reserve Chairman , who is due to speak at 1 PM ET (1700 GMT). Powell came in for fresh criticism from Trump on Monday, who accused

the Fed of acting like a “stubborn child” for not cutting interest rates at its meeting last week.

Elsewhere, the continued its recent recovery on reports that Conservative Party lawmakers were making plans to from taking the U.K. out of the European Union without a deal on Oct. 31 if, as expected, Johnson wins the ongoing party leadership contest.

In other news, the struggled to build on its sharp gains of Monday. It was little changed at 5.8197 to the dollar.

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Forex – U.S. Dollar Falls Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

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Investing.com – The U.S. dollar was lower on Wednesday as traders waited for clues on whether or not the Federal Reserve is turning more dovish.

The , which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.2% to 96.968 by 10:49 AM ET (14:49 GMT).

Ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, which have slowed global growth and put downward pressure on inflation, have increased the case for the Fed cutting rates this year.

The central bank is expected to keep rates this week, but markets have priced in an 80% chance of a rate cut in July. Traders will be scanning the Fed’s statement for clearer hints about the size and timing of any future moves, as well as poring over the central bank’s economic projections.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a at 2:30 PM ET (17:00 GMT).

The dollar was flat against the safe-haven Japanese yen, with at 108.42.

Elsewhere, the euro was stronger on the weak dollar, with up 0.2% to 1.1210, while sterling surged, with up 0.6% to 1.2626. fell 0.1% to 1.3357.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

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Forex – U.S. Dollar Flat as Inflation Supports Fed Rate Cut

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Investing.com – The U.S. dollar pared back earlier gains after tame inflation data supported the case for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

The , which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was up 0.05% to 96.690 by 10:15 AM ET (14:15 GMT), after reaching an earlier high of 96.757.

edged up 0.1% in May and was up 1.8% on the year, slipping from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Traders have been speculating on the possibility of the central bank cutting rates due to slowing inflation and rising trade tensions after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the bank would “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near our symmetric 2% objective.”

The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at its meeting on June 19, with an 83.2% chance of a cut priced in for its July meeting, according to Investing.com’s .

The dollar was lower against the safe-haven Japanese yen, with falling 0.1% to 108.40 as trade tensions lingered. President Donald Trump said he had no intention of a trade deal with Beijing absent concessions on five major, but unspecified, points.The comments appear to reduce the chance of a deal if the two leaders meet at the G20 summit on June 28-29.

Elsewhere, the euro inched down, with falling 0.1% to 1.1315. Sterling was higher, with gaining 0.1% to 1.2734, while rose 0.04% to 1.3282.

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ECB Pushes Back Bank Rate Hike Again as Trade War Hits Euro Zone

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Investing.com — The European Central Bank again pushed back the date when it will start to consider raising interest rates, effectively acknowledging that the global slowdown largely started by the U.S.-China trade dispute is undermining the Eurozone economy too.

However, the bank chose not to reintroduce the possibility of another interest rate cut into its forward guidance. That raises the likelihood that the euro’s interest rate differential with the dollar will narrow in the future, given that the Federal Reserve appears to be pivoting to a looser policy stance.

In a statement, the ECB said that “the Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the first half of 2020.”

It’s the second straight meeting that the ECB has extended the timeframe for its first hike since 2011. At its last meeting, it had pushed out the timing from September to the end of 2019. The new stance means that whoever replaces Mario Draghi as president of the ECB in November will find it near impossible to move the bank’s interest rates for at least eight months.

“The biggest news for markets is not that the ECB won’t hike, but that the ECB won’t *cut* rates over the next 12 months,” said Pictet Asset Management economic Frederik Ducrozet via Twitter.

In addition, the bank said it would price its new round of “Targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operations”, or TLTROs, which begins in September, at as little as 10 basis points over its deposit rate, which is currently at -0.40%. The precise rate will vary, depending on how much banks lend on to companies and households.

The reacted by rising around one-third of a cent against the dollar, hitting an intra-day high of $ 1.1271, while the yield on the benchmark rose by 2 basis points to -0.21%, having been close to a new all-time low immediately before the decision.

“ECB forward guidance change was the big underpriced risk today and it has now materialized,” said Lena Komileva, chief executive of G+ economics. “Once again, Draghi’s ECB has moved ahead of the markets’ expected timeline.”

As expected, the ECB left its official interest rates all unchanged. The deposit rate has been at -0.4% and the key refinancing rate has been at 0% since March 2016.

President Mario Draghi will expand on the decision at his press conference, which begins at 8.30 AM ET (1230 GMT).

Draghi is also due to unveil the ECB’s updated forecasts for growth and inflation for the next two years.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

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