You’ll have to spend $2,500 to visit this store Santa

Harrods, the famously high-end department store in London, is putting a 1% twist on the holiday tradition of the in-store Santa: Only families that have spent at least $ 2,500 at the retailer this year will be granted access to Santa’s lap.

To be sure, the tradition of store Santas is deeply entrenched in capitalism. It’s unclear when the first store Santa appeared — by some accounts it was in a Boston store in 1890, although Macy’s also claims first dibs on the idea — yet the attraction was clearly designed to not only delight children but get their parents to open their wallets. 

Harrods said its store Santa will appear in a “Christmas Grotto” decorated by crystal company Swarovski, promising “a snow-covered woodland filled with sparkling surprises” and inhabited by Father Christmas. But the store’s site notes that only Harrods Rewards members at the Green 2 level, which is reached by spending at least £2000 ($ 2,567), would be allowed to visit “in recognition of their loyal custom,” or patronage.

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That’s striking some shoppers as downright Grinch-like. 

“They have lost the true meaning of Christmas,” James Browne, 40, told The Guardian. He said he’d taken his four children to visit the Harrods’ Santa in previous years. “Visiting Father Christmas shouldn’t be reserved for those that are fortunate enough to frequent the store and spend thousands of pounds.”

Man dressed as Father Christmas poses for photographers outside Harrods
A man dressed as Father Christmas poses for photographers outside Harrods, in central London in August 2008. Luke MacGregor / REUTERS

According to The Guardian, Harrods said it will allow 160 families who haven’t spent $ 2,500 at the store to visit the Christmas Grotto, representing about 3.6% of the expected visitors. 

In addition to spending at least $ 2,500 at Harrods to gain entry to the Christmas Grotto, visitors will also have to buy tickets at about $ 25 a pop, according to the department store website. 

Still, even if you splurged on a shopping spree at Harrods before the Grotto opens on November 15, you’re not likely to gain entry: Harrods said the Grotto is now fully booked.

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World – CBSNews.com

Why is risk tone mixed this am after rollback tariffs agreed?

Risk is in the balance…again

Risk is in the balance...again

Ok, so we have had news from China and the US that rollback tariffs will be in play? So everything should be hunky dory, right?

wrong.

There are reports of fierce internal opposition from the US regarding tariff rollbacks. This is an uneasy agreement, hence the jitters.

The US-China ‘trade war’ is taking on similar proportions to the US-Russia ‘Cold War’. Any talks of ‘Phase 1’ deals are truce’s and not resolution. Who knows which way risk will flip today – just keep your eyes and ears alert. 

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More weak exports data, this time from South Korea

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ADVISORY WARNING: FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect’s individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FOREXLIVE™ specifically advises clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. FOREXLIVE™ expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits without limitation which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. As with all such advisory services, past results are never a guarantee of future results.

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U.S. Treasury says no plans to block Chinese listings ‘at this time’: Bloomberg

(Reuters) – The United States does not currently plan to stop Chinese companies from listing on U.S. exchanges, Bloomberg reported on Saturday, citing a U.S. Treasury official.

“The administration is not contemplating blocking Chinese companies from listing shares on U.S. stock exchanges at this time,” Bloomberg quoted https://bloom.bg/2obHkDb Treasury spokeswoman Monica Crowley as saying.

Reuters reported on Friday that President Donald Trump’s administration is considering delisting Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges in a move that would be part of a broader effort to limit U.S. investment in Chinese companies.

The Treasury did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

(This story has been refiled to add dropped ‘not’ in first paragraph)

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Stock Market News

Where now for the USDJPY this week?

Via Bloomberg and Credit Suisse

With the the Fed and the BoJ now out of the way what is next for the USD/JPY for the coming week? I came across a piece on Bloomberg and a trade idea from Credit Suisse on where they see the USDJPY going next.

Via Bloomberg and Credit Suisse

US-China trade tensions

The de-escalation of the US-China trade tensions is likely to continue ahead of the People’s Republic of China’s 70th anniversary celebrations. This should mean JPY does not strengthen on risk off tones from this avenue next week. However, as long as twitter exists I see this as a fragile state of play, which to be fair, virtually all traders now realise.

No-deal Brexit 

No-deal Brexit fears should be muted while investors wait to see if there is another Brexit extension granted before the October 31 deadline. Also, in addition to B;loomberg’s note,  we know that Boris is having another attempt at getting a deal under the EU’s noses next week. Mild optimism is the mood underpinning the GBP at the moment. 

Quarter end positions

USD/JPY likely to consolidate around the 108.00 level as investors squaring up quarter-end positions will be likely be main factor on USDJPY movement.

Credit Suisse’s take on USDJPY

Credit Suisse have announced a limit order to short USDJPY at 108.50 with a target of 107 and a stop loss at 109.50. Their rationales is that with the BoJ stepping back from easing action rallies should be faded. The benefit of this view is that any JPY strength on risk off tones push the trade in the right direction.

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If you are Japan’s top dog currency intervention guy, this is your next job

In Japan its the Ministry of Finance that orders (or not) currency intervention.

Japan’s Finance Ministry’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs is the guy (its normally a guy, yeah) who will instruct the BOJ to intervene, when he judges it necessary. Often referred to as Japan’s ‘top currency diplomat’.

Anyway, at the moment its Masatsugu Asakawa:

In Japan its the Ministry of Finance that orders (or not) currency intervention.

Who has just been nominated as next head of Asian Development Bank.

But, get this … the current head of the ADB is Takehiko Nakao, who was a previous ‘top currency diplomat’. 

Peculiar. 

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Goldman Sachs has lowered its forecast for oil demand growth this year

HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.

ADVISORY WARNING: FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect’s individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FOREXLIVE™ specifically advises clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. FOREXLIVE™ expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits without limitation which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. As with all such advisory services, past results are never a guarantee of future results.

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Japan media reports the G7 summit this weekend may end acrimoniously due to trade dispute

HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.

ADVISORY WARNING: FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect’s individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FOREXLIVE™ specifically advises clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. FOREXLIVE™ expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits without limitation which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. As with all such advisory services, past results are never a guarantee of future results.

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Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Dollar moves lower as Fed speak this week sinks in. PS All time high closes in US stocks

Forex news for NY trading on July 12, 2019.

In other markets: 

  • Spot gold is trading up $ 11.36 or 0.80% at $ 1414.96.  The yelllow metal was helped by a lower USD. Technically, the price at the session lows,  stalled near the 100 hour MA support level, giving the buyers more confidence (and forcing the sellers to buy). See technical post here.
  • WTI crude oil future are trading at $ 60.26, up $ .06 or 0.10%. The high today reached $ 60.74. The low extended to $ 59.93. For the week, the price was up over 4.5% helped by a much larger than expected drawdown of inventories on Wednesday.  For a technical look at the pair CLICK HERE.
  • The price of Bitcoin is trading up $ 447 at $ 11600 despite negative comments on cryptocurrencies from Pres. Trump.
Forex news for NY trading on July 12, 2019.
The major stock indices moved to new record highs just ahead of what is the start of the earnings calendar on Monday.    Moreover the S&P index closed above the 3000 level, after toying with the level on Wednesday and Thursday.  European shares closed mixed with the German Dax and UK FTSE down marginally. 
The US indices closed at the highs for the day and at all time highs heading into the start of the earnings calendar next week. After two days of loads of Fedspeak that did not stop the market from expecting a Fed cut in July, today was a “digest the words” type of day.  That feeling, led to a slightly softer tone for the dollar despite higher than expected PPI. 

However, when Fed’s Evan’s (a new voice this week) started chirping in Chicago, the dollar started to take on an even weaker tone.   Comments included:

  • Business investment weaker than expected
  • Sees growth for 2019 around 2% which is close to what he regards as sustainable trend
  • Business investment has been weaker despite fiscal aid
  • Nervous about under running inflation objective
  • Policy is currently about neutral but could be more accommodated if the aim was to lift inflation
  • A couple of rate cuts could lift inflation by 2021
  • Framework is adequate as long as policymakers are going to actively push for inflation of 2% to assure target is met symmetrically
  • Hard for businesses to make long-term plans given uncertainty around trade landscape
  • Slowing foreign growth is going to dampen the US economy
  • Rsk management approach means being a little more accommodative in case downside risks materialize, but we don’t want to go too far
  • Now am more concerned policy isn’t on  accommodative side
  • Takes seriously the current rates may be more restrictive than should be
  • Could argue for rate cuts on inflation, global slowdown

He seemed to get more and more dovish as he went along.

Overall, the votes are there for a rate cut in July and if Charlie Evans, Vice Chair Williams, Chair Powell, Thomas Barkin, et. al. take the chatter from this week into the meeting at the end of the month, the bias may shift even more to the dovish side for other meetings this year.  

Below is a snapshot the rankings of the strongest and weakest currencies. The AUD is ending as the strongest on risk on sentiment, the USD is the weakest. 

The USD is the weakest of the major currencies.

In the US debt market, yields are ending the session lower, but  off the day’s lowest levels.

The US yields are ending lower
Some technical views/thoughts going into the weekend:
EURUSD: The EURUSD traded up. It traded down. It traded up again and is closing near the day highs. In between the high at 1.12744 and the low at 1.1237 sits the 100 day MA and 200 hour MA at 1.1253. In the NY session,dollar selling in the NY afternoon, took the price back above that bullish above/bearish below barometer. In next week’s trading, the levels will remain
key for the technical bias.   For the week, the low for the week was reached on Tuesday at 1.11927. The high was on Thursday at 1.1285.  The 38.2% of the move down from the June 18 high comes in at 1.1276. A move above that level would be more bullish in the new week.

USDJPY: The USDJPY fell below a neckline level at 107.93, and the 100 bar MA on 4-hour (at 107.956) and 50% retracement of the move up from June 18 on Friday (at 107.878). That area will be close resistance in the new trading week.  Next week on more selling, the 107.53-57 will be a key swing area from June 18 and July 3rd to get below.  If the 108.00 is breached above, the 200 hour MA and 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart will be a key upside target.  

USDCHF: This is another currency pair that breached a neckline on the hourly chart (see post here), but has other support levels to get below in order to solicit more selling. Those levels include the 100 bar MA on 4-hour at 0.98377 a swing levels from July 2, and July 3rd at 0.9831-35.  Get below in the NY week and there should be more downside momentum.

AUDUSD: The AUD is the strongest of the major currencies today. In the process, the pair based against the 200 hour MA at 0.6984 , moved above a swing area at 0.7012-16 and breached the 100 day MA at 0.70209. The pair did stall near that 100 day MA, leaving the “higher?” or “lower?” decision for next week’s trading.   On more upside, the 0.7047 is the July high  and the highest level since May 1.

USDCAD: The USDCAD was pushed lower on more bearish USD flows, and higher oil in the second half of the week. The pair is closing at the lowest level of the year, and lowest level since October 2018 (trading at 1.3032). A move below the 1.3000 level opens the pair for a shot at the 100 week MA at 1.2980.  

My fingers are tired and I must have lost finger weight from all the typing exercise without Adam this week (and all the Fed speak and other events). I will return part of the favor on Monday and Tuesday (family in town), but look forward to my return on Wednesday.  Thank you for all your support this week and wishing you all a great and safe weekend. 

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Japan’s Aso: US-China situation seems a little different this time

Comments by Japanese finance minister, Taro Aso

  • Says US and China are talking about fundamental issues

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It’s either he knows something more (which I doubt) or he’s just assuming how the situation currently is. And you know what they say about people who ass-u-me.

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