Here’s the agenda for the Brexit showdown today

A look at how the day will play out in Westminster

Brexit

It is going to be a make or break day for Boris Johnson and his Brexit deal, and at this stage it is still unclear if he is going to get the numbers needed to claim victory.
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What we do know is the vote is likely going to be a close one and it may go right down to the wire. He may fall just short of a majority but there’s also a sliver of hope that he could pull off what many described a few months back as the impossible.

So, let’s take a look at the sequence of events for today (in London time):

  • 0830 BST – ERG (Spartans) meet to try and agree on a Brexit position.
  • 0930 BST – Parliament begins sitting. Johnson will deliver a statement on his Brexit deal while taking questions from fellow lawmakers.
  • 1100 BST – Lawmakers will begin debating the Brexit deal and speaker John Bercow will then announce which amendments are to be voted on later.
  • 1430 BST – Depending on how the debate progresses, lawmakers should start moving towards a vote around this time.

The timing of the debate and votes are still subjective as they depend on how short/long lawmakers spend on each session above.

But when it comes to the votes, we will start off with the amendments to the Brexit motion first before proceeding to a vote on the motion itself later on.

As mentioned yesterday, the key one to watch will be the Letwin amendment as it sets out an added insurance against a possible no-deal Brexit.

If Johnson’s Brexit motion fails, it could get quite messy if he chooses to ask for a vote on a no-deal Brexit instead so just be wary that this may not necessarily be a straightforward scenario as outlined by the agenda.

Here’s what you need to know as we head towards crunch time in the UK parliament:

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NewsBreak: No Brexit Deal Today – Reports

© Reuters.  © Reuters.

Investing.com – The U.K. and EU will not announce a deal on Brexit Wednesday, according to several published reports. But a deal could still be announced later in the week as it was unclear at what juncture negotiations were at.

  • , which had been bouncing around on headlines throughout the trading day, retreated after the reports, but was still up 0.3% at $ 1.2827.
  • ITV (LON:) political editor Robert Peston tweeted that there was “now no chance of Brexit deal tonight. Not at all sure about what that means for what can be agreed by EU leaders on Thursday and Friday.”
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    Brexit: DUP talks with government said to continue later today

    The Brexit mess looks set to get even messier as the clock winds down

    Brexit

    Multiple sources are reporting that the key issue in talks with the DUP is that of consent as highlighted here. Arlene Foster has already left Downing Street but reports are saying that more talks are scheduled for later today to try and officially break the deadlock.

    According to BBC political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, there is “no sense of an imminent breakthrough” just yet and other sources are reporting similar sentiment that there are still gaps and the DUP feels that more is needed for them to fully get on board.

    Meanwhile, the 1922 committee meeting has been brought forward to 1530 GMT as sources are saying that it could free up time for Boris Johnson to dash over to Brussels in order to secure any last-minute agreement.

    In short, Brexit talks are happening all over the place so just keep your eyes and ears peeled for any potential headlines during the day.
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    Heads up: Fed chair Powell to speak again later today

    In case you missed out on his remarks from yesterday:

    Powell
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    For today, he is scheduled to speak at around 1430 GMT (agenda says it is at 1500 GMT though) as he participates in a roundtable session in a Fed Listens event in Missouri. 

    The event is hosted by the Kansas City Fed so Powell will be joined by Esther George in the discussion, where we will be hearing a range of economic issues, such as labor market conditions, local banking, community development challenges and other topics.

    In any case, I wouldn’t expect Powell to deviate from his stance yesterday as he continues to keep all options on the table ahead of the next Fed meeting.

    The FOMC meeting minutes release later today as well as US CPI data and US-China trade talks later this week will be more impactful for the dollar and risk in my view.

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    It’s a light one on the North American calendar today

    Economic data is slim

    Economic data is slim

    It’s all about impeachment, Brexit and China-US talks this week as the economic calendar is light today and for most of the week.

    Equity market sentiment is negative to start the week, partly on a Bloomberg report suggesting that China won’t consider reforming industrial policy or government subsidies. On NPR, Peter Navarro said the White House wants a big trade deal with China or no deal.

    There is also chatter today about faultlines in corporate policy where US companies are appeasing China. The flashpoint today was that the GM of the NBA’s Houston Rockets tweeted support for Hong Kong. It’s set of such a firestorm that there’s even talk he could be fired.

    There are also rising geopolitical fears after Trump announced a pullout from Syria. The fear is that Turkey could invade and destabilize the region.

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    ICYMI – China markets are closed again today

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    Markit PMIs and housing are on the US agenda today

    What’s coming up

    What's coming up

    Robert Mueller will be testifying at the House judiciary committee imminently. That’s likely to spark some headlines but I think the market reaction will be limited.

    Economic data coming up will be a bigger factor. The Markit US services and manufacturing PMIs are both due at 1345 GMT. These are preliminary numbers and both expected to show small improvements from June.

    At 1430 GMT, the weekly US oil inventory report is due. Here was the API data, which showed a huge draw.

    Just after 1700 GMT, the Treasury will sell  5-year notes.

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    A very light day on the economic calendar in Asia today – some data from China

    Monday gets the week off to a quiet economic data start.

    The first event of note is from the BOJ – JGB purchase operation in 1-3, 3-5, 10-25 and 25+ years remaining until maturity. At 0110GMT.

    0130 GMT from China is the April reading for industrial profits, prior 13.9% y/y

    • China’s industrial profits f have been impacted adversely by slowing exports and production. The result in March, +13.9% y/y, was surprisingly strong given the weaker trend (note that profits in the first three months (i.e. YTD) were -3.3% from a year ago).
    • Exports and growth in industrial production slowed in April, which should ensure a weaker result than in March.

    After that, later in the session at 0500GMT Japan leading and coincident indexes.

    If you are going to have a nap instead of trade Asia, set your alarm for a speech from the European Central Bank’s Benoît Cœuré at 0840GMT.

    European Central Bank's Benoît Cœuré
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    Here is what’s on the economic calendar in Asia today

    2230 GMT New Zealand services PMI for April

    • prior 52.9
    • BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index

    2301 GMT UK Rightmove house Price prices for May

    • prior +1.1% m/m and -0.1% y/y

    2350 GMT Japan GDP (economic growth) data for Q1 2019, this is the ‘preliminary’. The January to March quarter saw Japanese exports suffer in the face of trade wars and an associated slowing around the globe.  

    • GDP (seasonally adjusted) for Q, preliminary, q/q: expected -0.1%, prior +0.5%
    • GDP Annualized (seasonally adjusted) for Q, preliminary y/y: expected -0.2%, prior +1.9%
    • GDP Nominal (seasonally adjusted) for Q, preliminary q/q: expected 0.1%, prior 0.4%
    • GDP Deflator y/y for Q, preliminary: expected 0.2%, prior -0.3% (deflator is an inflation indicator)
    • GDP Consumer Spending y/y for Q, preliminary q/q, expected is -0.2%, prior was 0.4%
    • GDP Business Spending y/y for Q, preliminary q/q: expected -1.9%, prior was 2.7%

    Later during the day Japanese final industrial production for March , due at 0430 GMT

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