Dollar loses steam versus yen as trade deal, Brexit hopes face reality check

By Tomo Uetake

SYDNEY (Reuters) – The dollar hovered below 2-1/2-month highs against the yen on Tuesday, failing to extend recent gains as optimism over trade negotiations between the world’s two largest economies and for an orderly British exit from the European Union started to fade.

In early Asian trade, the dollar was steady at 108.35 against the yen, still not far from its 2-1/2-month high of 108.63 yen marked on Friday.

The euro also stood flat at $ 1.1026 () versus the greenback, off Friday’s three-week high of $ 1.1062.

Although markets initially welcomed the “Phase 1” trade deal between the United States and China that President Donald Trump outlined last week, a lack of details kept many investors cautious.

“Media reports suggest China wants another high-level meeting later this month to finalize Friday’s agreement, suggesting that not all the details are nailed down,” said Alex Stanley, senior interest rate strategist at National Australia Bank.

“Market participants are conscious that previous U.S.-China ‘agreements’ have subsequently broken down amidst misunderstandings among the two sides.” 

A Bloomberg report on Monday, citing sources, said China wants more talks as soon as the end of October to hammer out the details of Trump’s phase 1 deal before Chinese President Xi Jinping agrees to sign it.

The negotiation between the UK and the European Union over Britain’s exit also looked equally fleeting.

Sterling slipped from a three-month high touched on Friday as last week’s euphoria gave way to doubts over whether a timely Brexit deal could be clinched. The pound was last quoted at $ 1.2604 versus the dollar, little changed on the day.

A deal to smooth Britain’s departure from the EU hung in the balance on Monday after diplomats indicated the bloc wanted more concessions from Prime Minister Boris Johnson and said a full agreement was unlikely this week.

Johnson says he wants to strike an exit deal at an EU summit on Thursday and Friday to allow an orderly departure on Oct. 31. If an agreement is not possible, he says he will lead the United Kingdom out of the club it joined in 1973 without a deal – even though parliament has passed a law saying he cannot do so.

The lira showed limited reaction after Trump imposed new sanctions on Turkey, but the currency stayed near seven-week lows against the dollar on concerns about a fallout from the country’s incursion in northern Syria.

In early Asia, the lira stood at 5.9239 per dollar , after having weakened some 0.8% on Monday.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forex News

Forex – Pound Falls Despite Renewed Brexit Hopes; Dollar Rises Amid Trade Progress

© Reuters.  © Reuters.

Investing.com – The British pound fell against the U.S. dollar on Monday in Asia despite renewed Brexit hopes. The greenback inched up amid positive trade progress with China.

The GBP/USD pair lost 0.3% to 1.2614 1:25 AM ET (05:25 GMT). The pound rose on Friday amid signs of a possible agreement on the Irish border problem.

Reports suggested that the U.K. had conceded that the province of Northern Ireland would remain in the EU customs area immediately after Brexit – a move that would satisfy EU concerns about the integrity of its border.

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he thought there was a way forward for a Brexit deal with the European Union, adding that “there is work to be done.”

Meanwhile, the yuan gained today after the U.S. paused its plan to impose more tariffs on Chinese goods this week. The USD/CNY pair lost 0.5% to 7.0538.

On the data front, China’s U.S. dollar-denominated exports were down 3.2% in September, slightly more than expected. Imports also fell more than analysts’ forecast, customs data showed on Monday.

That left China with a trade surplus of $ 39.65 billion in September, compared with a $ 34.84 billion surplus in August.

Analysts previously expected exports to decline by 3%, while imports were expected to drop by 5.2%.

China will release third-quarter GDP, September industrial production and retail sales data on Friday.

The U.S. dollar index inched up 0.1% to 98.123. According to the partial trade deal Washington and Beijing reached late last week, Beijing will make large agricultural purchases worth as much as $ 50 billion and take steps on intellectual property, financial services and the yuan.

The USD/JPY pair inched down 0.1% to 108.31.

The AUD/USD pair and the NZD/USD pair lost 0.1% and 0.3% respectively.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forex News

Citi says it remains cautious on an ‘eventual’ US-China trade deal

A weekend note via Citi on the conclusion of US-China talks on Friday.

  • Says the result is a ‘down payment’ that is ‘to keep discussion going’
  • ‘despite what has been achieved … we remain cautious on an eventual trade deal’.

State media in China is a bit more upbeat, says ‘substantial progress’ was made. But no deal. 

ForexLive

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forexlive RSS Breaking news feed

ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: Trump reveals Phase One of China trade deal

Forex news for North American trade on October 11, 2019:

Markets:

  • Gold down $ 5 to $ 1489
  • WTI crude up $ 1.36 to $ 54.91
  • US 10-year yields up 6 bps to 1.73%
  • S&P 500 up 32 points to 2970
  • GBP leads, JPY lags

The US-China trade deal finally arrived but high hopes for something comprehensive were significantly whittled down over the last few weeks and we ended up with something that essentially boiled down to soybeans for a tariff delay. Most importantly, the Dec 15 tariffs are still scheduled to be implemented.

Risk trades rallied ahead of the official announcement but there was a considerable sell-the-fact trade afterwards as the S&P 500 fell to 2970 from 2992 in the aftermath. The moves were more-subtle in yen crosses and commodity currencies but they finished off the highs.

The pound was the big story as the EU and UK move towards a real detail. Negotiators will now enter “the tunnel” which is a quiet period where details are hammered out. There probably isn’t enough time to complete a deal before Oct 31 but that doesn’t really matter so long as it’s on track to get done with a short extension. The week ahead (and weekend) will be critical. The pound capped its best two-day rally in a decade with a 225 pip rally, but finished 40 pips off the highs on a bit of position squaring.

USD/CAD fell after yet-another strong Canadian jobs report. The headline was coupled with strong full-time numbers and wages . Heavy gov’t hiring was a bit of a caveat but it didn’t matter much to the pair, especially with risk trades higher and oil up 2.5%. The immediate drop was to 1.3215 from 1.3280 and that eventually extended to 1.3170 before a 25 pip bounce late. The close was the lowest in a month. Note that Monday is a holiday in Canada.

The euro rose for the third day and hit a three-week high but the peak came as New York arrived and there was a minor double top at 1.1063 before a fall to 1.1031 late. We finished at the worst levels of North American trade.

Have a great weekend, it was a fun week in markets. Given the lack of a China resolution, there will be more lively weeks to come.

Forex news for North American trade on October 11, 2019:

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forexlive RSS Breaking news feed

Sterling shines on Brexit hopes, yen eases on trade optimism

By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO (Reuters) – Hopes of progress in U.S.-China trade talks and optimistic comments from Europe on Brexit pushed back the safe-haven yen and lifted the British pound and euro early on Friday.

Sterling was the biggest mover overnight, jumping 2% to a two-week high versus the dollar and posting its largest daily percentage gain in seven months on hopes of a Brexit resolution.

Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said on Thursday a Brexit deal could be clinched by the end of October to allow the United Kingdom to leave the European Union in an orderly fashion, after what he called a very positive meeting with Boris Johnson.

Ireland is a major factor in the prolonged Brexit impasse.

Sterling last traded at $ 1.2431 , having risen up to $ 1.2469 on Thursday.

Against the euro, the pound also rose to two-week highs of 0.8831 pound to the euro () on Thursday and last stood at 0.8858.

The euro also gained against the dollar, rising to $ 1.1007 (). It had climbed as high as $ 1.1034 in U.S. trade on Thursday, its strongest in almost three weeks.

That helped to send the () to 98.709, a low last seen on Sept. 25.

Also undermining the dollar, data showed on Thursday U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in September and underlying inflation retreated, supporting expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in October.

The yen eased to 107.92 yen to the dollar , having shed about 0.45% the previous day.

Top U.S. and Chinese negotiators wrapped up a first day of trade talks in more than two months on Thursday, as business groups expressed optimism the two sides might be able to ease a trade war and delay a U.S. tariff hike scheduled for next week.

U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters that his team had a “very, very good negotiation with China,” and reiterated his plans to meet with Liu at the White House on Friday.

“Prospect of an interim deal were also boosted overnight following reports that President Trump was planning to meet Vice Premier Liu He on Friday,” Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at National Australia Bank in Sydney, said in a report.

The was also buoyed, with traded at 7.105 yuan per dollar , having hit a three-week high of 7.0990 to the dollar the previous day.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forex News

Chinese Vice premier Liu He leaves trade talks at the end of the first day

HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.

ADVISORY WARNING: FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect’s individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FOREXLIVE™ specifically advises clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. FOREXLIVE™ expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits without limitation which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. As with all such advisory services, past results are never a guarantee of future results.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forexlive RSS Breaking news feed

Fox doubling down on the early finish to the trade talks

A Fox Business reporter tweets:

  • White House spokesman Judd Deere says, “We are not aware of a change in the Vice Premier’s travel plans at this time. ” 
  • Sources close to Chinese team tell us they are planning on cutting the talks short and leaving after one day (Thursday). 
  • The US Team may find that out tomorrow

It you are just tuning in – been rumour city from Washington this evening, the chronology is from the bottom up:

ForexLive

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forexlive RSS Breaking news feed

Forex – U.S. Dollar Weak As China Signals Openness to Trade Deal  

© Reuters.  © Reuters.

Investing.com – The U.S. dollar was weak despite reports that China is open to a partial trade deal despite the U.S. blacklisting Chinese firms earlier in the week, as traders await the Federal Reserve latest meeting minutes for clues on the direction of interest rates.

The , which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.1% to 98.762 as of 11:03 AM ET (15:03 GMT). Investors were also waiting for the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting at 2:00 PM ET (18:00 GMT) for clues on whether or not the central bank will cut rates.

China is willing to accept a trade deal, Bloomberg reported, and has even offered to increase how many soybeans it buys from American farmers as a measure of goodwill before trade talks. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is due to arrive this week in Washington for trade talks and is expected to meet U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Thursday.

The Japanese yen, which is seen as a safe haven in times of market turmoil, fell, with rising 0.3% to 107.36.

Elsewhere, was flat at 1.2212 while gained 0.2% to 0.0977 as it appeared that Brexit talks between the EU and U.K. had stopped just a few weeks before the two were set to split. The two sides have struggled to reach an agreement over the Irish backstop, with the EU insisting that there is a way for controls to flow across the Irish border without additional checks and that Northern Ireland remain in the customs union until an alternative solution is found.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forex News

Sunday evening US equity index futures trade is open, marked lower to begin the week

S&P500 emini trade has begun on Globex 

Down over half a percent 

UST futures little changed.

ES futures likely off on the news from Bloomberg earlier:

That took some points out of AUD/JPY (forex markets were already trading). Since then some of the loss has been recovered.   

S&P500 emini trade has begun on Globex 

ForexLive

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forexlive RSS Breaking news feed

Trump sees ‘very good chance’ of China trade deal, says no link to Biden probe request

By David Lawder and Lisa Lambert

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that his administration has a “very good chance” of making a trade deal with China, and insisted there were no links between China talks and his desire for Beijing to investigate Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden.

Trump, speaking to reporters before departing the White House, said negotiations to end the U.S. trade war with China were separate from any investigation into Biden, whom Trump has accused of foreign corruption.

“One thing has nothing to do with the other,” the Republican president said when asked whether he would be more likely to make a deal with China if it investigated Biden. “I want to do a trade deal with China, but only if it’s good for our country.”

Top-level U.S.-China trade talks are scheduled to resume next Thursday and Friday, when Chinese Vice Premier Liu He meets with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in Washington

The talks will be preceded on Monday and Tuesday by deputy-level discussions, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said earlier.

Trump has waged a two-year effort to change China’s trade, intellectual property and industrial policy practices, which he has long said are unfair and have cost millions of U.S. jobs.

His administration is seeking stronger protections of U.S. intellectual property, an end to forced transfers of American technology to Chinese firms, curbs to industrial subsidies and increased access to China’s largely closed domestic markets.

In a trade war that has lasted 15 months, the United States and China have heaped hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs

“I view China as somebody we’re trying to make a deal with, we have a very good chance of making a deal with,” Trump said. Right now, we’re in a very important stage in terms of possibly making a deal. If we make it, it will be the biggest trade deal ever made.”

On Thursday Trump publicly urged Beijing to investigate Biden, a Democrat, again raising concerns that he has invited foreign interference in the U.S. presidential election. Last week Trump released a transcript of a call where he asked Ukraine’s president to also look into Biden, a request that has triggered an impeachment inquiry by House of Representatives Democrats.

FINANCIAL SERVICES HOPES

Kudlow, in television interviews, held out hope for progress in opening China’s financial services markets to American companies in next week’s talks, adding the U.S. team was heading into them “open-minded.”

“Everything’s on the table, we’d love to go back to where we were in May when we were a lot closer,” Kudlow told Bloomberg TV.

The Trump trade team hoped to revisit a mostly agreed text from which China had backtracked in May, causing talks to break down, he said.

The text at that time included an agreement negotiated by Mnuchin that involved the lifting of foreign ownership caps on financial services firms in China.

“I’m not giving you news. I’m just saying we had some pretty good things last spring, like financial services opening – that could be extended,” Kudlow said in a subsequent interview on Fox Business Network. “I say ‘could’ and the president would have to sign off on it, but don’t rule out the possibility of good news.”

Kudlow declined to make any predictions about the talks but said there had been a “softening of the psychology on both sides” over the past month, with the United States delaying some tariff increases and China making some modest purchases of American farm products.

Kudlow also said the impeachment inquiry was unlikely to affect the trade talks with China.

“I don’t think that’s an impact right now. I think maybe it has only the tiniest, tiniest effect, maybe occasionally on stock market psychology,” Kudlow said.

However, he said the Trump administration continued to monitor freedom and democracy protests, which he said could have an impact on the talks, without specifying how. China-backed Hong Kong authorities have struggled to curb anti-government protests that have continued for four months.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forex News