Investors Fear Colombia Could Join Latin America’s Year of Rage

© Reuters.  Investors Fear Colombia Could Join Latin America’s Year of Rage © Reuters. Investors Fear Colombia Could Join Latin America’s Year of Rage

(Bloomberg) — Colombia is bracing for its largest protests in years Thursday with labor unions, students and indigenous groups leading a nationwide strike aimed at the deeply unpopular President Ivan Duque.

Investors have been burned by mass unrest in Chile, Ecuador and Bolivia in recent weeks and are pricing in a risk that Colombia may also see more political instability.

Organizers initially called the strike to raise pressure on Duque as his government plans to reform pension and labor laws. But it has morphed into a broad-based rejection of his administration, with groups from air traffic controllers to yoga teachers pledging to join in.

Similar anti-government sentiment has fueled protests across Latin America, with large-scale demonstrations pushing leaders to roll back austerity programs, and helping drive Bolivia’s long-standing president, Evo Morales, out of office.

“I’m following it pretty closely. The government has something to be nervous about,” said Oren Barack, managing director of fixed income at AGP Alliance Global Partners in New York, which holds Colombia sovereign and corporate debt. “There’s a lot of tension in Latin America right now.”

Sealed Borders

Groups taking part are protesting a range of issues including education funding, corruption and unsolved murders of social leaders. The government said it will seal the borders and allow local authorities to take measures such as imposing curfews to control violence.

“We’re tired of policies that don’t serve the people,” said Iliana Bermudez, 34, a member of a Movimiento Social E24, a group helping organize the strike. “This government doesn’t listen.”

In response to the planned strike, the 43-year-old Duque has defended his record and offered “to listen to all communities through a permanent dialogue.” His office has also gone on the offensive, describing many of the strike organizers’ grievances as myths, and releasing videos juxtaposing images of violent protests with those of people happily working, urging Colombians to “construct, not destroy.”

Investor Fears

Sovereign bonds of Ecuador, Chile and Bolivia have all sold off since violent clashes began.

The cost of insuring Colombia’s sovereign bonds against default with credit default swaps — a gauge of perceived risk — has risen the most in the Americas this week.

“Because they were blindsided by what happened in Chile, they’re even more concerned by what could happen in Colombia,” said Sergio Guzman, director of Colombia Risk Analysis, a Bogota-based consultancy.

Discontent has been quietly simmering in the country, but hasn’t boiled over into mass street violence like that seen in neighboring countries. Colombia last saw large-scale demonstrations in 2013 during an agriculture strike in which vast swaths of the country were paralyzed by highway blockades, and buildings in downtown Bogota were vandalized by masked demonstrators.

Approval Rating

Thursday’s marches are expected to be mostly peaceful, but may create negative headlines that will weigh on assets this week, said Dirk Willer, head of emerging-market fixed-income strategy at Citigroup Inc (NYSE:).

The protests may also succeed in pressuring the government into delaying and watering down its pension reform plans, he said.

The marches could further weaken Duque’s already flimsy support. His approval rating fell this month to 26%, its lowest level since he took office last year. A lack of a majority in Congress complicates his plans to push through a tax reform this year and pension and labor bills next year. And a scandal over a bombing raid on a guerrilla camp that killed several minors forced his defense minister to quit this month.

“Duque’s flaws have contributed to a growing level of discontent,” said Claudia Navas, an analyst at Control Risks in Bogota. “It’s uncertain where the president is taking the country.”

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forex News

New Zealand home sales fall 4% year on year: REINZ

Real estate Institute of New Zealand

The real estate Institute of New Zealand is reporting that home sales fell -4% year on year.  However the adjusted median home price was 

  • +1.1% in October and 
  • +7.6% year on year.
  • The medium house price year on year rose from NZ$ 561,500 to NZ$ 607,500

The decline in volume year on year was due to a number of people aiming to sell their homes before the foreign buyer ban came into effect at the end of October 2018. As a result the numbers a year ago were skewed to the upside.

According to Bindi Norwell of the REINZ, there were 7800 fewer listings for the 1st 10 months of 2019.  

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forexlive RSS Breaking news feed

William Hill Sports Book of the Year shortlist announced

William Hill Sports Book of the Year shortlist announced William Hill Sports Book of the Year shortlist announced

(Reuters) – The six-strong shortlist for the William Hill Sports Book of the Year award was announced on Tuesday, with twice winners Donald McCrae and Duncan Hamilton in contention for the 2019 prize.

McCrae’s book ‘In Sunshine or in Shadow: How Boxing Brought Hope in the Troubles’ is based on how boxing trainer Gerry Storey ran his Belfast gym during the Troubles and trained fighters on both the Republican and Loyalist sides.

Hamilton’s ‘The Great Romantic: Cricket and the Golden Age of Neville Cardus’ revolves around the 20th-century pioneer in cricket writing.

An autobiography from soccer whistleblower Andy Woodward, who exposed the scandal of sexual abuse in youth clubs, was also on the list, alongside former Sports Illustrated columnist Rick Reilly’s ‘Commander in Cheat: How Golf Explains Trump’.

The winner of the award will be announced in London on Dec. 5.

The William Hill Sports Book Of The Year Award bills itself as the world’s longest established and richest sporting literary prize. It was first awarded in 1989. This year’s winning author will receive a 30,000 pound ($ 38,955) cash prize and a trophy.

SHORTLIST FOR 2019

The Rise of the Ultra Runners: A Journey to the Edge of Human Endurance – Adharanand Finn

The Great Romantic: Cricket and the Golden Age of Neville Cardus – Duncan Hamilton

In Sunshine or in Shadow: How Boxing Brought Hope in the Troubles – Donald McRae

Rough Magic: Riding the World’s Wildest Horse Race – Lara Prior-Palmer

Commander in Cheat: How Golf Explains Trump – Rick Reilly

Position of Trust: A football dream betrayed – Andy Woodward

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Sports and General News

Italy expects budget deficit to rise next year, debt to fall: source

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte meet in Rome © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte meet in Rome

By Gavin Jones

ROME (Reuters) – Italy will target its budget deficit at around 2.2% of gross domestic product next year, falling to 1.8% in 2021 and 1.4% in 2022, a political source said on Saturday.

Economic growth is seen around 0.6% next year, and rising to 1.0% in each of the following two years, according to a draft of the targets seen by the source.

The Cabinet is due to sign off on the new targets contained in the Treasury’s Economic and Financial Document (DEF) at a meeting on Monday.

The targets are still subject to possible marginal revisions ahead of Monday’s meeting, the source said. In particular the 2020 deficit goal could be lowered to 2.1% depending on ongoing negotiations with the European Commission.

This year’s deficit is seen at around 2.0% of GDP, Deputy Economy Minister Antonio Misiani said this week.

The new government of the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement and the center-left Democratic Party intends to avoid an increase in sales tax worth some 23 billion euros ($ 25 billion)scheduled for January, which was promised to the European Union as a backstop to ensure Rome respected the bloc’s fiscal rules.

However Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, in comments on Friday, did not rule out possible adjustments to value added tax (VAT) rates.

Under an unchanged policy scenario, which includes the full VAT tax hike, next year’s deficit would fall to around 1.5% of GDP, two sources told Reuters earlier this week.

Italy has proportionally the second highest public debt in the EU after that of bailed-out Greece, and has made little progress in reducing its deficit toward a balanced budget in recent years as EU rules prescribe.

The debt is forecast to rise this year from last year’s 134.8% of GDP, the political source said, before declining in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Italy has urged the EU to ease what it calls the “excessive rigidity” of EU fiscal rules to head off the risk of recession in the 19-nation euro currency bloc.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Economy News

Goldman Sachs has lowered its forecast for oil demand growth this year

HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.

ADVISORY WARNING: FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect’s individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FOREXLIVE™ specifically advises clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. FOREXLIVE™ expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits without limitation which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. As with all such advisory services, past results are never a guarantee of future results.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forexlive RSS Breaking news feed

EUR/USD forecasts – higher through to year end

A quick snippet via BNP on their outlook for the second half of the year

Expect the euro to strengthen versus the dollar

  • USD is expensive on valuation grounds
  • the Fed will ease

Thus see EUR/USD at:

1.16 for Q3

1.20 for Q4

More:

Expect the Fed to cut rates twice in H2 due to 

  • a slowing economy
  • subdued inflation
  • heightened uncertainty

A decline in the 10-year treasury yield will only be moderate with markets pricing in rate cuts

On the ECB, BNP expect rates to remain unchanged through 2020, but:

  • slower growth
  • subdued core inflation

ForexLive

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forexlive RSS Breaking news feed

Canada’s Jobs Market Pauses After Monster Start to Year

© Reuters.  Canada’s Jobs Market Pauses After Monster Start to Year © Reuters. Canada’s Jobs Market Pauses After Monster Start to Year

(Bloomberg) — Canada’s booming labor market geared down in June, with employment little changed and a slight uptick in the jobless rate from historical lows.

The economy shed 2,200 jobs on the month, Statistics Canada said Friday in Ottawa, versus economist expectations for a gain of about 10,000. The unemployment rate rose to 5.5%, after reaching a four-decade low of 5.4% in May.

Even with the stall, the first half of the year was one of the best on record in terms of Canadian job gains.

Key Insights

  • The flat reading for employment in June doesn’t alter the picture of a labor market that remains the main driver of Canada’s expansion, with most economists widely expecting a slowdown from its recent unsustainable pace. The economy has added 247,500 jobs since the end of last year — the bulk of them full-time — which is the strongest since 2002 and the second-best first-half employment gain in four decades.
  • There were a number of pockets of strength in the report. Full-time jobs were up by 24,100, offsetting a decline in part-time employment. Self-employment fell, with the number of “employees” increasing. Wage gains accelerated to the fastest in more than a year.
  • The fact the labor market hasn’t pulled back should bolster confidence in the sustainability of the current economic rebound and ease pressure on the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates, even if other central banks ease policy.

Market Reaction

The Canadian dollar fell after the report, which coincided the release of U.S. payroll data that topped all estimates of economists. As of 8:34 a.m. in Toronto trading, the dollar was down 0.3% to C$ 1.3094 per U.S. dollar. Yields on Canadian two-year bonds were up however, reflecting easing worries about rate cuts.

“We’ll forgive Canada’s job market for taking an early summer holiday in terms of employment gains, given the massive surge in hiring that preceded it,” Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, said in a note.

Get More

  • The one area of weakness seems to be the goods sector, which saw employment contract 32,800 in June. Half of that came from manufacturers. Employment in goods-producing industries is down by 9,400 in the first six months of 2019.
  • Wages, however, are showing signs of strength. Annual hourly wages gains accelerated to 3.8% in June, the fastest since May last year and up from 2.8% in May. Pay gains for permanent workers climbed 3.6%, also a sharp increase. The year-over- year acceleration largely reflects weakness this time last year.
  • Total hours worked accelerated to 1.8% from 1% in May, the most since last fall.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forex News

Suspects in David Ortiz shooting will be imprisoned for up to a year while awaiting trial

Watch CBSN Live

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

World – CBSNews.com

Bank of Russia Resumes Easing Cycle With First Cut in a Year

&copy Bloomberg. The obverse, right, and reverse sides of 2014 issue Russian one ruble coins sit in this arranged photograph in Moscow, Russia, on Tuesday, Aug. 5, 2014. Russian government bonds slid, taking yields to a five-year high, and the ruble fell on concern the conflict in Ukraine will escalate after Poland warned President Vladimir Putin may be preparing to invade. &© Bloomberg. The obverse, right, and reverse sides of 2014 issue Russian one ruble coins sit in this arranged photograph in Moscow, Russia, on Tuesday, Aug. 5, 2014. Russian government bonds slid, taking yields to a five-year high, and the ruble fell on concern the conflict in Ukraine will escalate after Poland warned President Vladimir Putin may be preparing to invade.

(Bloomberg) — Go inside the global economy with Stephanie Flanders in her new podcast, Stephanomics. Subscribe via Pocket Cast or iTunes.

Russia cut interest rates for the first time since March 2018 and signaled more monetary easing at one of its upcoming meetings as growth slowed and inflation retreated closer to the central bank’s target.

The key rate was cut to 7.50% from 7.75%, according to a statement on Friday. That matched 33 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey, while two economists expected no change. Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina will hold a news conference at 3pm in Moscow.

“If the situation develops in line with the baseline forecast, the Bank of Russia sees the possibility of a further key rate reduction at one of the upcoming Board of Directors’ meetings and a transition to neutral monetary policy by mid-2020,” the central bank said in its statement.

Read our live blog for more on the Russian rate decision

The move makes Russia the latest emerging market to tilt toward more dovish policy as escalating trade woes weigh on growth. Chile and India also lowered their benchmark rates recently and other central banks will likely follow if the Federal Reserve signals a shift to easing.

The change in trajectory of interest rates in developed economies reduces the risk of persistent outflows from emerging markets, the statement said.

The ruble extended gains and 10-year government bond yields retreated 4 basis points to 7.66% as investors cheered the prospect of more rate cuts and slower inflation. bonds, known as OFZs, have already handed carry traders some of the best returns in emerging markets this year.

“The central bank definitely wanted to signal that it is joining the global monetary easing trend,” said Vladimir Miklashevsky, a strategist at Danske Bank A/S in Helsinki. “We see more flows into OFZs given the current rate and inflation outlook.”

Annual inflation decelerated for a third month in June, reaching 5% as of June 10, the central bank said. Price growth will slow to 4.2%-4.7% by the end of the year, the statement said, citing weak consumer demand and ruble strength.

Inflation could rise if the Finance Ministry goes ahead with an idea to invest money accumulated in Russia’s wealth fund, the statement warned.

‘Dovish Undertones’

The central bank also cut its growth forecast for 2019 to 1.0%-1.5% from 1.2%-1.7%. A worsening of international trade tensions may lead to a slowdown in global growth, the statement warned.

Most economists are forecasting a second rate cut from Russia in September, and some see another one by the end of the year. Nabiullina warned last week that there’s no rush to undo two surprise rate hikes imposed last year as inflation jumped.

“The overall dovish undertones of the statement strongly suggest that the central bank will make another 25 basis points cut in 2019,” said Ivan Tchakarov, a Moscow-based economist at Citigroup Inc (NYSE:). “Given that the neutral policy rate is seen by the central bank in the range of 6-7%, there will be scope for further cuts next year.”

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forex News

U.S. Treasury sells $19 billion of 30 year bonds and a high yield of 2.892%

WI just before auction traded at 2.89%

  • WI just prior was at 2.89%
  • High yield: 2.892%. Tail 0.2bps
  • Bid to cover: 2.20x vs six-month average of 2.22x
  • Dealers: 28.5% versus 6 month average of 27.8
  • Directs:11.0% versus 14.4% last auction
  • Indirects:60.5% versus 60.5% last auction

Better than yesterday but middle of the road auction.  

  • Bid to cover just below the 6 month average
  • As 0.2BP tail
  • Dealers took a little more than the 6 month average.  

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Forexlive RSS Breaking news feed